Intrepid_Timer's PUBLIC Account Talk

[Handballer]

Sunday night marks the premiere of "Behind the Candelabra," a Liberace biopic starring Michael Douglas as the flamboyant pianist. Maybe Michael Douglas swings both ways.

 

[burrocrat]

Sunday night marks the premiere of "Behind the Candelabra," a Liberace biopic starring Michael Douglas as the flamboyant pianist. Maybe Michael Douglas swings both ways.

if there is a gott im himmel maybe the media will show some restraint and not cover his medical missive on how he contracted colorectal cancer.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Confused About ObamaCare? Who Isn

"Clear answers to your questions about the new health insurance plans"

 

[nnuut]

Happy Birthday IT!

​

 

[eccougar]

Happy birthday IT.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Thanks guys!

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

“Remembering you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.”

― Steve Jobs

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I'm just posting a note to myself for future reference:

My TNA only trades this year: 24.60%

My TNA only trades in 2012: 83.73% (13.17% at the end of April)

Buying and holding TNA this year: 30.99%

Buying and holding TNA in 2012: 42.64% (30.95% at the end of April)

Just an FYI:

03-26-2012 TNA up 47.26% YTD / My TNA/TZA trades down 16.56%

12-31-2012 TNA up 42.64% YTD / My TNA/TZA trades up 115.49%



03-07-2013 TNA up 32.21% YTD / My TNA/TZA trades down 8.06%

12-31-2013 TNA ? / My TNA/TZA trades ?

Mid-year update:

My TNA/TZA return as of the last transaction in June: 34.13% (up 30.26% at the same time last year, so at least I'm consistent).

My TNA only trades: 46.20% Buying and holding TNA: 47.25% Buying and holding TZA: -41.03%

Okay, much better. Obviously my long trades are still outperforming my short trades for the year, but the shorts are starting to come on. Just an FYI, although buying and holding TNA has still been the way to go this year (barely), I don't know anyone in their right mind that would hold a 3X leveraged ETF for six months at a time, let alone a year.

Here are the year to date returns of some other leveraged ETFs that I track using my system's signals and update daily in my commentaries:

FAS/FAZ: 35.20% (These are 3X financial ETFs)

ERX/ERY: 76.82% (These are energy ETFs) (FYI, buying and holding ERX is only up 28.84% this year)

UPRO/TLT: 38.98% (This is a more conservative approach to using 3X ETFs as UPRO is a large cap ETF and TLT is a bond fund, so you are never actually shorting equities. This would be like trading the S and F funds with TSP, except with leverage and being able to use all my system's signals)

Some think it takes a lot of extra time to trade the stock market. I get one signal per week on average and it takes what, 3-5 minutes to log into one's brokerage account at the end of the day and make a trade? If you don't have the time to invest 3-5 minutes a week into your future, then just buy a 3X ETF and hold it........... Of course, ,trading can be addictive and most will want to spend way too much time analyzing and such, so it's certainly not for everyone, especially if you are married.

My current return for TSP is only 4.99%, but a lot of that is my fault for not using my system's first buy signal in May (all back tested returns are determined by always using the first buy signal each month as it usually gives two), plus the recent mini-crash in bonds didn't help either (G fund is always an option on sell signals). It is what is though................

See you at the end of the year.

 

[bazinga!]

Mid-year update:

My TNA/TZA return as of the last transaction in June: 34.13% (up 30.26% at the same time last year, so at least I'm consistent).

My TNA only trades: 46.20% Buying and holding TNA: 47.25% Buying and holding TZA: -41.03%

Okay, much better. Obviously my long trades are still outperforming my short trades for the year, but the shorts are starting to come on. Just an FYI, although buying and holding TNA has still been the way to go this year (barely), I don't know anyone in their right mind that would hold a 3X leveraged ETF for six months at a time, let alone a year.

Here are the year to date returns of some other leveraged ETFs that I track using my system's signals and update daily in my commentaries:

FAS/FAZ: 35.20% (These are 3X financial ETFs)

ERX/ERY: 76.82% (These are energy ETFs) (FYI, buying and holding ERX is only up 28.84% this year)

UPRO/TLT: 38.98% (This is a more conservative approach to using 3X ETFs as UPRO is a large cap ETF and TLT is a bond fund, so you are never actually shorting equities. This would be like trading the S and F funds with TSP, except with leverage and being able to use all my system's signals)

Some think it takes a lot of extra time to trade the stock market. I get one signal per week on average and it takes what, 3-5 minutes to log into one's brokerage account at the end of the day and make a trade? If you don't have the time to invest 3-5 minutes a week into your future, then just buy a 3X ETF and hold it........... Of course, ,trading can be addictive and most will want to spend way too much time analyzing and such, so it's certainly not for everyone, especially if you are married.

My current return for TSP is only 4.99%, but a lot of that is my fault for not using my system's first buy signal in May (all back tested returns are determined by always using the first buy signal each month as it usually gives two), plus the recent mini-crash in bonds didn't help either (G fund is always an option on sell signals). It is what is though................

See you at the end of the year.

I_T,
Being such a newbie, how can I find out more information on ETF's? You said "If you don't have 3-5 minutes a week......then just buy a 3X ETF and hold it."
Was that just humor or for real? I would like to know what a 3X ETF is and how to get more information about getting started. I would sure like a set it and forget it plan for getting into ETF's (although I doubt that is what I'd do because of my addictive personality!) Any advice would be appreciated.
Thanks,
Lori

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I_T,
Being such a newbie, how can I find out more information on ETF's? You said "If you don't have 3-5 minutes a week......then just buy a 3X ETF and hold it."
Was that just humor or for real? I would like to know what a 3X ETF is and how to get more information about getting started. I would sure like a set it and forget it plan for getting into ETF's (although I doubt that is what I'd do because of my addictive personality!) Any advice would be appreciated.
Thanks,
Lori

Hi Lori,

That was humor. As I said, I don't know anyone in their right mind that would hold a 3X leveraged ETF for six months at a time, let alone a year.

I talk a little more about my ETF strategy on my overview page and you can also read my end of year reports.

TSP Talk - Interpid Timer's Investment Strategies

I have a premium thread setup just for those of us that trade ETFs. We talk about several strategies and I also have a sub-system just for VIX trades which is up 55.86% in the four months since I developed it and it only averages about one trade per month with a duration of 1-3 days.

Other than that, Google and investopedia.com are good places to start.

Good luck!

 

[bazinga!]

Ha Ha! Whoever said I was in my right mind?
Thanks for the link. I had read that some time ago but my eyes glazed over when I got to the ETF part!
I think I have a lot of homework to do before I make any decisions about ETF's/mutual funds. There is so much information on this site alone that I find myself sitting for way too long at the computer.
Maybe I can find a laptop that sits on top of a stairmaster!
Thanks again!

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Now this is "strange". Is it the "mother ship" waiting to take us "home".....................

Mysterious NASA video of Saturn reveals impossible hexagon-shaped cloud pattern larger than planet Earth

 

[nnuut]

[h=1]Saturn's hexagon is not unique[/h]Posted By Emily Lakdawalla
2010/06/29 11:49 CDT OLD NEWS

Saturn's hexagon is not unique | The Planetary Society

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Saturn's hexagon is not unique

Posted By Emily Lakdawalla
2010/06/29 11:49 CDT OLD NEWS

Saturn's hexagon is not unique | The Planetary Society

Well that was disappointing. Thanks nnuut!!

 

[PessOptimist]

Well that was disappointing. Thanks nnuut!!

Cheer up IT, maybe they are all mother ships and better days are coming.:nuts:

PO

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

“Never say that you can't do something, or that something seems impossible, or that something can't be done, no matter how discouraging or harrowing it may be; human beings are limited only by what we allow ourselves to be limited by: our own minds. We are each the masters of our own reality; when we become self-aware to this: absolutely anything in the world is possible.”

― Mike Norton

 

[Cactus]

Or stated another way:

"Argue for your limitations, and sure enough they're yours."

Richard Bach, Illusions

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

“Don't change so people will like you. Be yourself & the right people will love the real you.”

― Unknown

 

[burrocrat]

“Don't change so people will like you. Be yourself & the right people will love the real you.”

― Unknown

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

If anyone is interested in recent debt ceiling increases:

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL31967.pdf