Interfund Transfer 7/03 for 7/05/07

[tsptalk]

100% G COB today

Another positive morning but there are enough warning signs to warrant backing off here. I will make an Interfund Transfer to 100% G fund this morning.

Enjoy your holiday!

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks for the emails! I still had my allocation listed as 100% S in today's commentary. It's updated now (100% G).

Thanks again!

 

[watsinit4mee]

I don't understand why you are in the g-fund. The I-fund has been kicking butt all year long. It has made the biggest gain of all the funds this year. The g-fund should only be used as a safety net when things are going bad. If you are able to catch the i-fund dips and transfer your money to the g-fund, that is the only time i would do it. And that would only be for a couple of days. You seem to park your funds in the g-fund for waaaaay to long. Good luck, but i think your money would grow much faster and not with too much risk in the i-fund. watsinit4mee

 

[tsptalk]

Welcome wats! All good advice, but rear-view mirror analysis. Let me know when things are going bad.

 

[watsinit4mee]

not really rear-view mirror analysis. i've been in the i-fund for over 3 yrs with only a couple of moves over to the g-fund. have made great gains. i have had it go down on me a couple of times, but it has never failed to return and gain more. the problem is catching those big dips. it is much easier to stay in and ride the hill and valleys. if you're lucky, and i have been a couple of times to get out just before the downhill and catch the ride back up. but again, my sentiments are the g-fund should only be for short term parking. the money is in the i-fund.

 

[mlk_man]

What is it, about every six months another one of these people come along? You mentioned you've been in the I fund for over 3 years, congratulations! You've made some nice mula, for TSP anyway. You might want to look back to 2000-2002 to see what you would've made then before you start giving investment advice. Or make sure they don't own weapons...........:toung:

 

[weatherweenie]

What is it, about every six months another one of these people come along?

Kind of like roaches.

Pisses me off that there are people out there that have to tear another down to make them feel better about their lives. It's just sad.

Living life from the rear view mirror is MUCH easier.

 

[watsinit4mee]

Dearest Mlkman, i don't think the i-fund was available back then, but i could be wrong. i was in the c-fund at the time. i did make some good mula and lost some there too. however, the overall, was up. You seem to be a little bit pissed at me for some reason. All i did was ask why you were in the g-fund so much. I think your $$$ could be put elsewhere to make alot more. if the g and f fund are your thing, then by all means stay there and earn your 2-4%/yr. Stay in the g and you'll be making more than your trades seem to. I am not handing out investment advise, i'm telling you where i am. so settle down hombre.

 

[budnipper1]

Dearest Mlkman, i don't think the i-fund was available back then, but i could be wrong. i was in the c-fund at the time. i did make some good mula and lost some there too. however, the overall, was up. You seem to be a little bit pissed at me for some reason. All i did was ask why you were in the g-fund so much. I think your $$$ could be put elsewhere to make alot more. if the g and f fund are your thing, then by all means stay there and earn your 2-4%/yr. Stay in the g and you'll be making more than your trades seem to. I am not handing out investment advise, i'm telling you where i am. so settle down hombre.

The 2001 returns shown reflect the actual returns of the S and I Funds for May (inception of S and I Funds) through December 2001

http://www.tsp.gov/rates/history_2001.html

 

[Spaf]

I gotta take the moderators hat off and put the members hat on for this post!

I don't think we are understanding what we have (TSP) in the reality of risk vs reward.

TSP is a retirement savings plan. The G-fund is 0% risk. The equities are 100% risk. This risk can be lowered by reducing allocations. The L-funds are examples of how risk is reduced as one gets closer to retirement.

If your retirement is on track. You could just about stay in the G-fund of 5%.
Withdrawls and inflation would be about 7%. So a few low risk trades could maintain the 7% or you could go over to the low risk L-funds.

We have had several years of good Bull Markets. But what about the Bear Markets. Can you recognize a Bear Market, can you protect your capital. Do you understand market fundamentals.

Fundamental Analysis
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/investing/fundamental_analysis.htm

We have had some years when you didn't want to be in equities:

10-Year Summary of TSP Individual Funds Annual Returns

Year, G, F, C, S, I

1997 6.77 9.60 33.17 25.68 1.55
1998 5.74 8.70 28.44 8.63 20.09
1999 5.99 -0.85 20.95 35.49 26.72
2000 6.42 11.67 -9.14 -15.77 -14.17
2001 5.39 8.61 -11.94 -9.04 -21.94
2002 5.00 10.27 -22.05 -18.14 -15.98
2003 4.11 4.11 28.54 42.92 37.94
2004 4.30 4.30 10.82 18.03 20.00
2005 4.49 2.40 4.96 10.45 13.63
2006 4.93 4.40 15.79 15.30 26.32

TSPTalk has a excellent mission statement.
We want to maximize our Thrift Savings Plan retirement accounts and help others along the way.
We do this by allocating our assets into the funds which have the highest probability for capital preservation and greatest possibility for increased returns.

Every person has to evaluate their own investing style experience and time frame to retirement. And, the accounts need to be managed. If you want to be a active trader, consider a broker account where you can make trades in a second. Mistakes can be quite large when you have to wait a day or two for a trade.

Consider 3 fund systems:
1. An Emergency cash fund.
2. Your TSP retirement, and
3. A broker trading fund.

I won't be critical of anyone in the G-fund or another in the I-fund, if that suits your plan and risk/reward tolerance. Sometimes we just get out of sync and need to be on a lilly pad.

The problem is not having a plan, and not knowing how to safeguard your savings. As far as I know you (may) only get one shot at retirement.

My 2 cents
U can throw the erasers!
But, Regards and be careful
Spaf

 

[charmed855]

Dearest Mlkman, i don't think the i-fund was available back then, but i could be wrong. i was in the c-fund at the time. i did make some good mula and lost some there too. however, the overall, was up.

So you were one of those that lost 50% of your account balance between 2000 and 2003? Listen and learn - this game is a marathon, not a sprint. Some of the folks here have been running it for a while and have gained some perspective. Having an open mind and being able to learn from them is what makes this place great. By the way, welcome to the board.
c855

 

[watsinit4mee]

nope, i didn't lose 50%, about 10-15%. and that is only because i couldn't get out of the tsp on a daily basis at that time. i've been in the tsp for about 20 yrs now. i'm not a newbie, only to this board. you are right, it isn't a race, but when the i-fund is going up, i'm going to hop on board. and that is what i did a few years back. now that i'm able to trade on a daily basis, i'm a little more cautious about jumping in and out.

 

[SkyPilot]

nope, i didn't lose 50%, about 10-15%. and that is only because i couldn't get out of the tsp on a daily basis at that time. i've been in the tsp for about 20 yrs now. i'm not a newbie, only to this board. you are right, it isn't a race, but when the i-fund is going up, i'm going to hop on board. and that is what i did a few years back. now that i'm able to trade on a daily basis, i'm a little more cautious about jumping in and out.

On what do you base your expectation on the I fund continuing is upward march? Do you have a strategy? Or, are you just another one of a long list who show up here and criticize?

This I fund will do well until it doesn't...

 

[offtrack]

I'm retired and have followed markets on and off for 35 years. Things can change unexpectedly. As another fan of capital preservation, I want to point out the markets were due for a correction this year, and the 4% February drop put caution in any investor concerned with capital preservation. From then on it's been trying to catch an in point w/o getting hit by that inevitable correction. For myself that in point might not be till after the next bear market and several years hence cause our stock funds haven't got managers taking cash positions when things get pricey and dicey. There is big downside potential.

 

[watsinit4mee]

first off, i don't recall ever criticizing anyone. i asked a simple question. why are you still in the g when other funds are rising at a much more rapid rate? i've seen where all the analysis that has been done has lead to a loss, so "your" analyses aren't always correct either. you don't always gain. I've said that i was in the i fund and have made great gains. i don't hop in and out because i feel that the i fund will rebound when it hits a little downside. i would like to be more savvy and get out when it goes down and then back in for the ride up. It and the s fund have made the most gains in the last few years, but you guys aren't really ever in it. why is that? you stay in the g and f fund. i know it's safer, but i think the rewards of the upside outway the risks. i've made way more $$$ in the tsp on my own than following tsptalk's recommendations. I'm more aggressive and optimistic and don't care if i hit a little downward trend. I try to limit the downside, but i feel optimistic about the upside of this fund. at least in the short term. i am not saying i am a great investor, but i am making money at a quicker rate than most for my retirement. good luck with your investing. sorry if i hit a sore spot.

 

[tsptalk]

sorry if i hit a sore spot.

No problem watsinit4mee. I admit I'm envious of those who were bold enough to stay in this long. Stick around for the every day discussions. Even though we all don't agree on how things will play out, we all have the same goal and any input is appreciated.

 

[Bullitt]

i've made way more $$$ in the tsp on my own than following tsptalk's recommendations. I'm more aggressive and optimistic and don't care if i hit a little downward trend. I try to limit the downside, but i feel optimistic about the upside of this fund. at least in the short term. i am not saying i am a great investor, but i am making money at a quicker rate than most for my retirement. good luck with your investing. sorry if i hit a sore spot.

Good luck in keeping up that quick pace throughout your career. I'm always learning something from the participants of this MB. Here's something I learned from a book...

"Find your weakness before the market does. If the market discovers you cannot control your greed, it will wipe you out. If it learns you cannot control your temper, it will aggravate you until you are out of control. If it sees any weakness in you, it will exploit you. All individuals who pour their emotions into the market are out solely for themselves."
Thomas McCafferty