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Interfund Transfer 3/30 for 3/31/05
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
macdtrader
Member
imported post
Spaf, thanks forsharing another great concept. Your analysis seems to be on the money. Let meadd another scenario to it. Suppose 2005is a year in whichthe SFund (or C or I) givesan investor aroller coasterthrillride but ends upflat or breaking evenfor the year. If he useda buyandholdstrategy,the G Fund willoutperformby 5% andhis opportunity cost for the thrilling ride was 5% plus theyear lost inhis questforfinancial freedom.Skillfulmarket timing or luckappearsto bethe only way to beat the current 5% return unless a new bull market similar to the 1990s begins soon wherewecan buy and hold C, S or I.
After this week'sstock market selloff, your planseems very prudent:Wait for an upwardbreakout oftwo days or more in the market averages. Withheavier trading volume, the breakout shouldindicate that professional/institutional sellershave stoppedtheir selling temporarily and arebuyingagain.
Atthe Dow Jones & Company website [url]http://djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showAverages[/url],an interesting historicalchart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is available free of charge under the "Dow data" column. The chartsshow that in the years1966 to 1982the DJIA ended close to where it began16 years earlier.There wereseveral bull markets and several bear marketswithin that timeframe.Also,sideways drifting markets were in vogue from 1897 to 1914 andfrom 1916 to 1942, punctuated withseveralbull and bear markets.
Perhaps 2000 to 2016 is anotherstock market period similar to the great, long term,sideways markets of the last 108 years.However, if TSPTalk Investors work as a team bysharing their best trading strategiesand investment thoughts, we can each select the beststrategies for our own situation, applythem, andreachfinancial freedomsooner. Thenit may not be importantwhat type of markets we experience.
Best ofluck toall TSPTalkmembers and thanks for the great ideas!
Spaf, thanks forsharing another great concept. Your analysis seems to be on the money. Let meadd another scenario to it. Suppose 2005is a year in whichthe SFund (or C or I) givesan investor aroller coasterthrillride but ends upflat or breaking evenfor the year. If he useda buyandholdstrategy,the G Fund willoutperformby 5% andhis opportunity cost for the thrilling ride was 5% plus theyear lost inhis questforfinancial freedom.Skillfulmarket timing or luckappearsto bethe only way to beat the current 5% return unless a new bull market similar to the 1990s begins soon wherewecan buy and hold C, S or I.
After this week'sstock market selloff, your planseems very prudent:Wait for an upwardbreakout oftwo days or more in the market averages. Withheavier trading volume, the breakout shouldindicate that professional/institutional sellershave stoppedtheir selling temporarily and arebuyingagain.
Atthe Dow Jones & Company website [url]http://djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showAverages[/url],an interesting historicalchart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is available free of charge under the "Dow data" column. The chartsshow that in the years1966 to 1982the DJIA ended close to where it began16 years earlier.There wereseveral bull markets and several bear marketswithin that timeframe.Also,sideways drifting markets were in vogue from 1897 to 1914 andfrom 1916 to 1942, punctuated withseveralbull and bear markets.
Perhaps 2000 to 2016 is anotherstock market period similar to the great, long term,sideways markets of the last 108 years.However, if TSPTalk Investors work as a team bysharing their best trading strategiesand investment thoughts, we can each select the beststrategies for our own situation, applythem, andreachfinancial freedomsooner. Thenit may not be importantwhat type of markets we experience.
Best ofluck toall TSPTalkmembers and thanks for the great ideas!
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Mac....Risk/Return
One of the TSPTalk members (Dave) who is good in math gave some of the risk/reward figures.
They looked good to me.
See what you think!
The [highlight= #ffff88]risk[/highlight]/[highlight= #88ffff]reward[/highlight] equation is illuminating. If the market goes up 10% on the year and you are 40% in the G-fund which pays 5%, you net (.4x5 + .6x10) = 8%. If the market goes down 10%, you net (.4x5 - .6x10) = -4%. You get 80% of the potential gain but avoid 60% of the potential loss.
If 60G then it works out to (.6x5 + .4x10) = 7%; or (.6x5 - .4x10) = -1%. You get 70% of the gain and avoid 90% of the loss.
Interesting!!
Spaf
Mac....Risk/Return
One of the TSPTalk members (Dave) who is good in math gave some of the risk/reward figures.
They looked good to me.
See what you think!
The [highlight= #ffff88]risk[/highlight]/[highlight= #88ffff]reward[/highlight] equation is illuminating. If the market goes up 10% on the year and you are 40% in the G-fund which pays 5%, you net (.4x5 + .6x10) = 8%. If the market goes down 10%, you net (.4x5 - .6x10) = -4%. You get 80% of the potential gain but avoid 60% of the potential loss.
If 60G then it works out to (.6x5 + .4x10) = 7%; or (.6x5 - .4x10) = -1%. You get 70% of the gain and avoid 90% of the loss.
Interesting!!
Spaf
pyriel
Active member
imported post
SystemTrader wrote:
If you would like to receive everyone's tracker worksheet (they are all in one excel file), please pm me your email address. I'll try to make it a point to sendan updated one on a weekly basis (i'll try).I will usually send the workshet on a weekend so that people may get a compilation on where everyone is allocated before they start trading again on Monday market. The file is bigger than 10240bytes which is why I can't attached it here.
It is quite exciting and an eye opener when you see everyone's tracker side by side.
Pyriel
SystemTrader wrote:
All,
If you would like to receive everyone's tracker worksheet (they are all in one excel file), please pm me your email address. I'll try to make it a point to sendan updated one on a weekly basis (i'll try).I will usually send the workshet on a weekend so that people may get a compilation on where everyone is allocated before they start trading again on Monday market. The file is bigger than 10240bytes which is why I can't attached it here.
It is quite exciting and an eye opener when you see everyone's tracker side by side.
Pyriel
macdtrader
Member
imported post
Spaf, thank you very much for sharing the details of your plan. I like your conservative approach to TSP investing and capital preservation. I stayed 100% invested G today sinceC,S and I all seemed to be dropping beforethetransfer cutoff. I will wait for a positive breakout as you recommended. Ihave notseen many bearish comments on this website butmy hunch isthata bear marketbeganin January 2005 for the C and S funds.
Spaf, thank you very much for sharing the details of your plan. I like your conservative approach to TSP investing and capital preservation. I stayed 100% invested G today sinceC,S and I all seemed to be dropping beforethetransfer cutoff. I will wait for a positive breakout as you recommended. Ihave notseen many bearish comments on this website butmy hunch isthata bear marketbeganin January 2005 for the C and S funds.
macdtrader
Member
imported post
Thank you very muchand congratulations on being Top Trader last quarter. By sharingsuccessful trading strategiesyou are helpingme and other TSP investors toa brighter future.
Thank you very muchand congratulations on being Top Trader last quarter. By sharingsuccessful trading strategiesyou are helpingme and other TSP investors toa brighter future.
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
Mac.. I can tell you my plan..I don't advise.
Generally speaking one should hold off investing while in a fund / market is in a trading range. Could break up or down. When an up break out occurs let it confirm itself by waiting a few days. I never risk over 2% of total capital, nor stay in a fund that looses over 5%. It's too hard to make up!
If I was 100% G, I'd stay there until a positive break out :}. MHO!
Mac.. I can tell you my plan..I don't advise.
Generally speaking one should hold off investing while in a fund / market is in a trading range. Could break up or down. When an up break out occurs let it confirm itself by waiting a few days. I never risk over 2% of total capital, nor stay in a fund that looses over 5%. It's too hard to make up!
If I was 100% G, I'd stay there until a positive break out :}. MHO!
SystemTrader
Member
imported post
macdtrader wrote:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/
There are quite a few different styles (aggressive/risk averse, frequent or occasional moves, etc.). You may find one that suits your goals.
Also, a couple of folks do the admirable task of tracking the members' returns here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/1422.html
The helps you see how the different styles play out in different market climates (bullish, bearish, or flat/choppy).
Hope that helps,
John
macdtrader wrote:
You can view other members' allocations here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/
There are quite a few different styles (aggressive/risk averse, frequent or occasional moves, etc.). You may find one that suits your goals.
Also, a couple of folks do the admirable task of tracking the members' returns here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/1422.html
The helps you see how the different styles play out in different market climates (bullish, bearish, or flat/choppy).
Hope that helps,
John
macdtrader
Member
imported post
Thank you Spaf.I have 100% in G Fund now.If Icommit 40% into C, S and I at 12:00 midnight on Thursday, what is my exit strategy?Should I exit C, S and Iif and when then 1163.86support level is broken? If the 1202.12 level is broken, do I add additional funds above the 40% level?
Thank you Spaf.I have 100% in G Fund now.If Icommit 40% into C, S and I at 12:00 midnight on Thursday, what is my exit strategy?Should I exit C, S and Iif and when then 1163.86support level is broken? If the 1202.12 level is broken, do I add additional funds above the 40% level?
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
macdtrader wrote:
R-R =60% G fund. Diversify40% C, S, & I. Play trading range cautiously. Monitor S&P, support:1163.86, resistance: 1202.12 go long or short at breakout. Establish trailing stops as necessary if there is a breakout up.
Capital preservation is 1st priority
Spaf
macdtrader wrote:
Here's my plan
R-R =60% G fund. Diversify40% C, S, & I. Play trading range cautiously. Monitor S&P, support:1163.86, resistance: 1202.12 go long or short at breakout. Establish trailing stops as necessary if there is a breakout up.
Capital preservation is 1st priority
Spafmacdtrader
Member
imported post
I can retire anytime since Ihave theminimum retirement age and years of service. I ammore concerned with the return of my capital than the return on my capital but will tradethe F, C, S, or I Funds if anyone wouldkindly sharea trading stategy wheretherewards to riskratioishigherthanthe4.45% annual G Fund earnings. Best ofluckto all TSP investors and thanks for your suggestions!
I can retire anytime since Ihave theminimum retirement age and years of service. I ammore concerned with the return of my capital than the return on my capital but will tradethe F, C, S, or I Funds if anyone wouldkindly sharea trading stategy wheretherewards to riskratioishigherthanthe4.45% annual G Fund earnings. Best ofluckto all TSP investors and thanks for your suggestions!
imported post
macdtrader wrote:
Also, The S&P 500 PE has not been below 17 since 1991.
macdtrader wrote:
Not a terriblemove for someone close toretirement. Being safe is better than being sorry. This year couldbe shaky. I'm not sure I'd go 100% G but if you want to hold what you have, it's the only guarantee.
Also, The S&P 500 PE has not been below 17 since 1991.
macdtrader
Member
imported post
You were correct about the move up in I Fund the next day. Today I visited http://www.stockselector.com and learned that the S&P 500 PE average is 30.5.WHEN PE'S ARE OVER 17.0, THE AVERAGE RETURN OF THE MARKET HAS BEEN ONLY 0.3% A YEARFROM 1927 - 2002. Also, we have the major market averages falling,the Federal Reserve Bank raising interest rates and Goldman Sachspredicting oil prices may rise to $105 per barrel.Imoved my fundstoG last Thursday at midnight since I am near to retirement and need to protect my capital. Goodluck to you and all other TSP investors.
You were correct about the move up in I Fund the next day. Today I visited http://www.stockselector.com and learned that the S&P 500 PE average is 30.5.WHEN PE'S ARE OVER 17.0, THE AVERAGE RETURN OF THE MARKET HAS BEEN ONLY 0.3% A YEARFROM 1927 - 2002. Also, we have the major market averages falling,the Federal Reserve Bank raising interest rates and Goldman Sachspredicting oil prices may rise to $105 per barrel.Imoved my fundstoG last Thursday at midnight since I am near to retirement and need to protect my capital. Goodluck to you and all other TSP investors.
imported post
Good article on the price of oil. You seem to be bullish, but think I still smell bear droppings. I will wait for positive upturn before getting back to stocks. The S&P500 seems to me like rising intrest rates will haveless effect. If oil spikes a ripple effect in commodities is certain.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/31/news/international/goldman_oil.reut/index.htm
Good article on the price of oil. You seem to be bullish, but think I still smell bear droppings. I will wait for positive upturn before getting back to stocks. The S&P500 seems to me like rising intrest rates will haveless effect. If oil spikes a ripple effect in commodities is certain.
http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/31/news/international/goldman_oil.reut/index.htm
