Interfund Transfer 3/30 for 3/31/05

[tgrmike]

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I've got mixed feelings and have been thinking about it quite often. Some folks thinkyou still should think of it aslong term investing even when you retire. I'm one that kind of thinks in that mode. However, always looking for other ideas!

 

[Shaggy]

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Tolerance is one thing. Another thing that should be considered is your age and health. If something does happen can you continue to work a few more years until the market recovers, are you going to retire and go back to work doing something else (full or part time), what percentage of your income will the TSP annuity be, things of this nature. For example, I am trying to reach a point were my TSP annuity will be about 70% of my income for the rest of my life. This would not include SS or my Gov annuity or previous employment annuities. This leaves me with a realistic comfort zone in risk. Even if the market does the 2000-2002 thing I could reasonable survive on 40 or 50% instead of the 70% I had intended.

 

[tgrmike]

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I think about 20% of retirement will come from TSP. However, I only want to draw on the interest and try and keep the principle in tact. In order to do this I think you have to have some growth to your account.

 

[Shaggy]

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Just remember with growth comes risk. There will be years when that interest is in the Neg range and can you afford to go without that 20% for that year.

 

[tgrmike]

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Then it will just have to dip into the P. 20k is about 4% or less of P.

 

[pyriel]

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tgrmike wrote:

I think about 20% of retirement will come from TSP. However, I only want to draw on the interest and try and keep the principle in tact. In order to do this I think you have to have some growth to your account.

I think by hanging out here, you will do better than average (or at least get a return with no lower than average). Keep it up...

 

[tgrmike]

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pyriel,

That sounds like a winner!

 

[MR CARLO]

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Good article on the price of oil. You seem to be bullish, but think I still smell bear droppings. I will wait for positive upturn before getting back to stocks. The S&P500 seems to me like rising intrest rates will haveless effect. If oil spikes a ripple effect in commodities is certain.



http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/31/news/international/goldman_oil.reut/index.htm

 

[macdtrader]

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You were correct about the move up in I Fund the next day. Today I visited http://www.stockselector.com and learned that the S&P 500 PE average is 30.5.WHEN PE'S ARE OVER 17.0, THE AVERAGE RETURN OF THE MARKET HAS BEEN ONLY 0.3% A YEARFROM 1927 - 2002. Also, we have the major market averages falling,the Federal Reserve Bank raising interest rates and Goldman Sachspredicting oil prices may rise to $105 per barrel.Imoved my fundstoG last Thursday at midnight since I am near to retirement and need to protect my capital. Goodluck to you and all other TSP investors.

 

[tsptalk]

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macdtrader wrote:

Imoved my fundstoG last Thursday at midnight since I am near to retirement and need to protect my capital. Goodluck to you and all other TSP investors.

Not a terriblemove for someone close toretirement. Being safe is better than being sorry. This year couldbe shaky. I'm not sure I'd go 100% G but if you want to hold what you have, it's the only guarantee.

Also, The S&P 500 PE has not been below 17 since 1991.

 

[Spaf]

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macdtrader wrote:

Imoved my fundstoG last Thursday at midnight since I am near to retirement and need to protect my capital. Goodluck to you and all other TSP investors.

Hey mac.....What time frame r you looking at, excuse me if personal!. PM OK! Just curious because we may be in similiar circumstances!

Rgds Spaf

 

[mlk_man]

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macdtrader wrote:

You were correct about the move up in I Fund the next day. Today I visited http://www.stockselector.com and learned that the S&P 500 PE average is 30.5.WHEN PE'S ARE OVER 17.0, THE AVERAGE RETURN OF THE MARKET HAS BEEN ONLY 0.3% A YEARFROM 1927 - 2002. Also, we have the major market averages falling,the Federal Reserve Bank raising interest rates and Goldman Sachspredicting oil prices may rise to $105 per barrel.Imoved my fundstoG last Thursday at midnight since I am near to retirement and need to protect my capital. Goodluck to you and all other TSP investors.

I believe I heard somewhere that the only reason Goldman Sachs said this is because they are heavily invested in oil right now? I think I heard this on Maryland Public Television.

 

[ou81200]

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Welcome Back mlk_man. EOM

 

[mlk_man]

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ou81200 wrote:

Welcome Back mlk_man. EOM

Thank you ou81200! :^

 

[macdtrader]

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I can retire anytime since Ihave theminimum retirement age and years of service. I ammore concerned with the return of my capital than the return on my capital but will tradethe F, C, S, or I Funds if anyone wouldkindly sharea trading stategy wheretherewards to riskratioishigherthanthe4.45% annual G Fund earnings. Best ofluckto all TSP investors and thanks for your suggestions!

 

[Spaf]

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macdtrader wrote:

I can retire anytime since Ihave theminimum retirement age and years of service. I ammore concerned with the return of my capital than the return on my capital but will tradethe F, C, S, or I Funds if anyone wouldkindly sharea trading stategy wheretherewards to riskratioishigherthanthe4.45% annual G Fund earnings. Best ofluckto all TSP investors and thanks for your suggestions!

Here's my plan
R-R =60% G fund. Diversify40% C, S, & I. Play trading range cautiously. Monitor S&P, support:1163.86, resistance: 1202.12 go long or short at breakout. Establish trailing stops as necessary if there is a breakout up.

Capital preservation is 1st priority Spaf

 

[macdtrader]

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Thank you Spaf.I have 100% in G Fund now.If Icommit 40% into C, S and I at 12:00 midnight on Thursday, what is my exit strategy?Should I exit C, S and Iif and when then 1163.86support level is broken? If the 1202.12 level is broken, do I add additional funds above the 40% level?

 

[SystemTrader]

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macdtrader wrote:

I can retire anytime since Ihave theminimum retirement age and years of service. I ammore concerned with the return of my capital than the return on my capital but will tradethe F, C, S, or I Funds if anyone wouldkindly sharea trading stategy wheretherewards to riskratioishigherthanthe4.45% annual G Fund earnings. Best ofluckto all TSP investors and thanks for your suggestions!

You can view other members' allocations here:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/

There are quite a few different styles (aggressive/risk averse, frequent or occasional moves, etc.). You may find one that suits your goals.

Also, a couple of folks do the admirable task of tracking the members' returns here:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/1422.html

The helps you see how the different styles play out in different market climates (bullish, bearish, or flat/choppy).

Hope that helps,

John

 

[Spaf]

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Mac.. I can tell you my plan..I don't advise.

Generally speaking one should hold off investing while in a fund / market is in a trading range. Could break up or down. When an up break out occurs let it confirm itself by waiting a few days. I never risk over 2% of total capital, nor stay in a fund that looses over 5%. It's too hard to make up!

If I was 100% G, I'd stay there until a positive break out :}. MHO!

 

[macdtrader]

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Thank you very muchand congratulations on being Top Trader last quarter. By sharingsuccessful trading strategiesyou are helpingme and other TSP investors toa brighter future.