Interfund Transfer 3/30 for 3/31/05

[pyriel]

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tgrmike wrote:

I think about 20% of retirement will come from TSP. However, I only want to draw on the interest and try and keep the principle in tact. In order to do this I think you have to have some growth to your account.

I think by hanging out here, you will do better than average (or at least get a return with no lower than average). Keep it up...

 

[tgrmike]

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Then it will just have to dip into the P. 20k is about 4% or less of P.

 

[Shaggy]

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Just remember with growth comes risk. There will be years when that interest is in the Neg range and can you afford to go without that 20% for that year.

 

[tgrmike]

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I think about 20% of retirement will come from TSP. However, I only want to draw on the interest and try and keep the principle in tact. In order to do this I think you have to have some growth to your account.

 

[Shaggy]

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Tolerance is one thing. Another thing that should be considered is your age and health. If something does happen can you continue to work a few more years until the market recovers, are you going to retire and go back to work doing something else (full or part time), what percentage of your income will the TSP annuity be, things of this nature. For example, I am trying to reach a point were my TSP annuity will be about 70% of my income for the rest of my life. This would not include SS or my Gov annuity or previous employment annuities. This leaves me with a realistic comfort zone in risk. Even if the market does the 2000-2002 thing I could reasonable survive on 40 or 50% instead of the 70% I had intended.

 

[tgrmike]

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I've got mixed feelings and have been thinking about it quite often. Some folks thinkyou still should think of it aslong term investing even when you retire. I'm one that kind of thinks in that mode. However, always looking for other ideas!

 

[Rod]

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tgrmike wrote:

I don't know if it will or not. Just trying to get some informed info to make some decisions. I'm planning on retireing in a couple of years and currently in I 50%, S 30% and C 20%.

IMO, your rather heavily invested for being only a couple years away from retirement. But then again, I do not know your risk tolerance.

You may want to enter the preservation mode, though.

 

[tgrmike]

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I don't know if it will or not. Just trying to get some informed info to make some decisions. I'm planning on retireing in a couple of years and currently in I 50%, S 30% and C 20%.

 

[tsptalk]

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tsptalk wrote:

If we get a test of 1163, let's hope it's quick and followed by another rebound. I'm not sure I can stomach a 1% loss right now.

Also, that is the problem with trying to play a retest. If the test is quick and a solid rebound follows, we could avoid the loss but miss the gain. That 1 to 2 day delay could hurt playing such a short time frame. I know. It happens to me often.

 

[tsptalk]

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If we get a test of 1163, let's hope it's quick and followed by another rebound. I'm not sure I can stomach a 1% loss right now.

Longer term (2 to 3 weeks ) the next move should be up so if we do get a retest, it shouldn't hurt too long.

 

[tsptalk]

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So you think it should continue to outperform? That's fine. History suggests it (small caps) should slow down but anything can happen.

 

[tgrmike]

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OK. But, the S Fund has out performed the C Fund 18.03 to 10.82 in 04 and 10.42 to 6.99 over the last 12 months. I Fund is kicking both>

 

[tsptalk]

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tgrmike wrote:

Want rising interest rates have a reaction on the C Fund as well?

Yeah, what Dog said, although the S fund may get a good bounce since it fell pretty hard. As a trade maybe some S would be good. As an investment the C fund because of those rates.

 

[tsptalk]

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JustICE wrote:

Ok you posted this change at 10am or so.. I do not read the board untill I get home after 5pm. At that point is it to late to follow your sugestions?

You may be better off. There is a good chance there could be a test of the recent lows within a day or two.

By the way, I hate to call this "my suggestion". I like to say it's what I'm doing. You can take it for what it's worth. Some may not think that is much.

Also, can you get email during the day? You can join the email alert list which also goes out prior to the deadline. (see top right of [url]www.tsptalk.com[/url])

Thanks!
Tom

 

[tgrmike]

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Good point. Thanks

 

[Dogdaddy]

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tgrmike wrote:

Want rising interest rates have a reaction on the C Fund as well?

Large Caps (C)are flush with cash, Small Caps (S)tend to operate on borrowed money.

 

[tgrmike]

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Want rising interest rates have a reaction on the C Fund as well?

 

[JustICE]

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Ok you posted this change at 10am or so.. I do not read the board untill I get home after 5pm. At that point is it to late to follow your sugestions?

 

[Rod]

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tsptalk wrote:

Hey mac -
One of the reasons I went into the I fund was that it sometimes has a big day the day after the US funds go up, so I was happy to see it didn't move Wed. I hope the dollar cooperates and let's the I fund do it's thing tomorrow.

I believe it will. So far the world markets are looking pretty healthy for 31 Mar.

 

[tsptalk]

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macdtrader wrote:

Currently I like "C" more thanthe "I"Fund since"I" gained nothingon Wednesday.Maybe theUS Dollar was oversold and is temporarily gaining strength due torising interest rates and foreign currency tradershearing talkof more aggressive tightening of the US money supply in the future by the Federal Reserve Bank.Thanks again for the great website.

Hey mac -
One of the reasons I went into the I fund was that it sometimes has a big day the day after the US funds go up, so I was happy to see it didn't move Wed. I hope the dollar cooperates and let's the I fund do it's thing tomorrow.