Interfund Transfer 3/30 for 3/31/05

[tsptalk]

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Since we have to make an early decision I am changing my allocation and gambling that we may be seeing a bottom here. If not close.

I will be going 50% C, 50% I fund (rather than 50% G, 50% I, which I reported earlier).

Sorry for the late change.

Tom

 

[tgrmike]

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Wht not some in S Fund?

 

[Rod]

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Tom, do you think the bottom already came yesterday?

Or could this just be a knee-jerk reaction to falling oil?

 

[tsptalk]

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tgrmike wrote:

Wht not some in S Fund?

Rising interest rates.

 

[tsptalk]

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Rod wrote:

Tom, do you think the bottom already came yesterday?

Or could this just be a knee-jerk reaction to falling oil?

If we didn't hit the bottom, it is close. I have mixed feelingabout the rally today. It looked impressive but I wasn't involved. I was hoping for something a little less enthusiastic. :?

 

[macdtrader]

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Thanks for yourgreatcharts and your educational explanations of the stock market. You motivated metochange allocationsfrom 60% to 100% in "C" Fundeffective 12:01AM Tuesday. My timing was wrong and I lost money Tuesday but more than recovered what I loston Wednesday.Let's hopeTuesday wasa bottom for the S&P 500.

Currently I like "C" more thanthe "I"Fund since"I" gained nothingon Wednesday.Maybe theUS Dollar was oversold and is temporarily gaining strength due torising interest rates and foreign currency tradershearing talkof more aggressive tightening of the US money supply in the future by the Federal Reserve Bank.Thanks again for the great website.

 

[tsptalk]

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macdtrader wrote:

Currently I like "C" more thanthe "I"Fund since"I" gained nothingon Wednesday.Maybe theUS Dollar was oversold and is temporarily gaining strength due torising interest rates and foreign currency tradershearing talkof more aggressive tightening of the US money supply in the future by the Federal Reserve Bank.Thanks again for the great website.

Hey mac -
One of the reasons I went into the I fund was that it sometimes has a big day the day after the US funds go up, so I was happy to see it didn't move Wed. I hope the dollar cooperates and let's the I fund do it's thing tomorrow.

 

[Rod]

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tsptalk wrote:

Hey mac -
One of the reasons I went into the I fund was that it sometimes has a big day the day after the US funds go up, so I was happy to see it didn't move Wed. I hope the dollar cooperates and let's the I fund do it's thing tomorrow.

I believe it will. So far the world markets are looking pretty healthy for 31 Mar.

 

[JustICE]

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Ok you posted this change at 10am or so.. I do not read the board untill I get home after 5pm. At that point is it to late to follow your sugestions?

 

[tgrmike]

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Want rising interest rates have a reaction on the C Fund as well?

 

[Dogdaddy]

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tgrmike wrote:

Want rising interest rates have a reaction on the C Fund as well?

Large Caps (C)are flush with cash, Small Caps (S)tend to operate on borrowed money.

 

[tgrmike]

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Good point. Thanks

 

[tsptalk]

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JustICE wrote:

Ok you posted this change at 10am or so.. I do not read the board untill I get home after 5pm. At that point is it to late to follow your sugestions?

You may be better off. There is a good chance there could be a test of the recent lows within a day or two.

By the way, I hate to call this "my suggestion". I like to say it's what I'm doing. You can take it for what it's worth. Some may not think that is much.

Also, can you get email during the day? You can join the email alert list which also goes out prior to the deadline. (see top right of [url]www.tsptalk.com[/url])

Thanks!
Tom

 

[tsptalk]

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tgrmike wrote:

Want rising interest rates have a reaction on the C Fund as well?

Yeah, what Dog said, although the S fund may get a good bounce since it fell pretty hard. As a trade maybe some S would be good. As an investment the C fund because of those rates.

 

[tgrmike]

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OK. But, the S Fund has out performed the C Fund 18.03 to 10.82 in 04 and 10.42 to 6.99 over the last 12 months. I Fund is kicking both>

 

[tsptalk]

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So you think it should continue to outperform? That's fine. History suggests it (small caps) should slow down but anything can happen.

 

[tsptalk]

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If we get a test of 1163, let's hope it's quick and followed by another rebound. I'm not sure I can stomach a 1% loss right now.

Longer term (2 to 3 weeks ) the next move should be up so if we do get a retest, it shouldn't hurt too long.

 

[tsptalk]

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tsptalk wrote:

If we get a test of 1163, let's hope it's quick and followed by another rebound. I'm not sure I can stomach a 1% loss right now.

Also, that is the problem with trying to play a retest. If the test is quick and a solid rebound follows, we could avoid the loss but miss the gain. That 1 to 2 day delay could hurt playing such a short time frame. I know. It happens to me often.

 

[tgrmike]

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I don't know if it will or not. Just trying to get some informed info to make some decisions. I'm planning on retireing in a couple of years and currently in I 50%, S 30% and C 20%.

 

[Rod]

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tgrmike wrote:

I don't know if it will or not. Just trying to get some informed info to make some decisions. I'm planning on retireing in a couple of years and currently in I 50%, S 30% and C 20%.

IMO, your rather heavily invested for being only a couple years away from retirement. But then again, I do not know your risk tolerance.

You may want to enter the preservation mode, though.