Interfund Transfer 1/04 for 1/05/05

[tsptalk]

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I'm hopingto take advantage ofa little relief rally Tuesday, one of the strongest days of the year historically (2nd trading day in January) to lighten up on my stock holdings.

I am initiating an interfund transfer Tuesday morning, which will be effective Wednesday, to 40% G, 30% C, 15% S and 15% I fund. The S and I funds have the most to lose if we see a pullback. That is why I am favoring the C fund right now while I'm in defensive mode.

 

[Spaf]

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tsptalk wrote:

while I'm in defensive mode.

We expect an attack of the lemmings? :l

 

[Spaf]

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Us senior citizens got to get our information out.

Seniorline:

An elderly gentleman, in his mid 90's, with hair well groomed, a great looking suit, a flower in his lapel, smelling slightly of a very nice after shave, and presenting a well-cared-for image, walks into an upscale cocktail lounge. Seated at the bar, an elderly lady, mid 80's, also well dressed and attractive is sitting alone. The gentleman walks over, sits down beside her, orders a drink, takes a sip, turns to her and says....
"So tell me, do I come here often?"

Hope I can find the office tomorrow!

Rgds Spaf

 

[Mike]

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My mind can't get around this part: "Seated at the bar, an elderly lady, mid 80's, also well dressed and attractive is sitting alone."

Is it possible for anyone to be attractive at that age? If they are, who did they bribe early on in life to stay like that?

 

[puertorico]

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I like that move Tom 30% C, 15% S and 15% I fund.
And I will follow that one, sound good to me....

 

[Guest]

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Tom,

I've always believed in the KISS theory. G fund in January? In the traditionally best month of the year? Nah. I've been in the I fund as I watch the dollar index carefully. If the dollar rallies soon, as I expect it to, then I'll move more into S. IMHO, there's plenty of time to consider the G fund in February....

I do agree with you that the C fund should begin outperforming the S fund this year..but not in January, which is traditionally the small cap's bestmonth.

 

[grandma]

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Mike wrote:

Is it possible for anyone to be attractive at that age?

o(sigh...) yes, Mike, It Very Much Is!!! First is attitude, not cost a thing; changing it even in `later' life helps. Second, she, nor he, spent their years sitting on the barstool! AND, I'll bet, that some of the folks you work with are of an age that you Don't suspect!! ...look for laugh lines !:u

 

[tsptalk]

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saraho wrote:

G fund in January?

This allocation may be only for a week. It depends if the market can shake off the overbought, high bullish sentiment levels. Tomorrow I gointo protection mode with 60% stocks. Today, let the market run.

 

[fedgolfer]

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If the S&P bounces off of its 20-day MA today and remains above it through the close, wouldn't this signal a support level and continuation in this uptrend? I'll wait closer to the noon deadline to reallocate depending on S&Ps and I-funds late-morning-performance. However, if support levels are broken, we could be correcting back to the 50-day MA warranting a strong move to the G-fund. Currently, I'm 50% S, 50% I but hoping for anotherstrong January in S & I.

I don't have access to the exact 20-day MA for the S&P, I assume its right around 1200? I know the C-fund 20 day MA is 12.78, but that doesn't help me for reading the S&Ps intraday performance.


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=c&p=e100,m200,m100,m50,m20&a=r14,ss,fs,vm&c=

 

[Mike]

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The S&P isn't doing terribly today - it's down~5 points, but that's not bad considering what's going on with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000.

This just shows how quickly a pullback can manifest itself. "January is historically a very strong month" has quickly turned into "how much pain do I dare endure to avoid the mistake of missing the renewed movement upward?"

The dollar is rallying big-time today. It is up 1.35% against the Yen. It is also moving strongly against the Euro and Pound. Those are your big three currencies for the I fund. :shock:

If we don't gain some of this back this afternoon, we could be looking at a very nasty week...

 

[tsptalk]

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Mike wrote:

If we don't gain some of this back this afternoon, we could be looking at a very nasty week...

Or worse! It could do well after we get out. We may be getting whipsawed here. That darn one day delay.

 

[Rod]

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Boy, what a first couple days of the new year!

I'm so hesitant to bail on the (I) at this point in time. I never like bailing after a loss.

I'm hopeful, but at the same time the dollar is beginning to gain some ground.

I'm sure there are a lot of you out there feeling this same way... especially if you are in (I).

I just may lighten up some tomorrow... and simply look at it as a "good" buy into (S).

God Bless:^

 

[Mike]

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Tom, do you think there is foreign government intervention at work here? The Japanese said they were going to, so I'm very curious about this. The dollar is now up 1.5% against the Yen. :shock:

I'm not going to get cute in this environment. Pullbacks hit hard and quick, and they can reverse just as quickly. The last thing I want to do is sell the bottom and buy back in as the market is heading back up. If things are looking strong (~0.7+% gains) tomorrow morning, I'll probably take the opportunity to lighten up on my stock holdings considerably. If it's down again, I'm just going to sit here and pretend I'm not seeing what I'm seeing. :^

 

[fedgolfer]

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tsptalk wrote:

Mike wrote:

If we don't gain some of this back this afternoon, we could be looking at a very nasty week...

Or worse! It could do well after we get out. We may be getting whipsawed here. That darn one day delay.

What's the chances of the TSP Board extending the transfer deadline?It would be great if we could manage the TSP funds like psuedo ETF's.

Until then, I'll notch this one down as a "should have paid attention to my overbought indicators." Last year we didn't get a 2-day correction of this proportion until late January...unfortunatley, history doesn't always repeat itself.

 

[Skip]

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G doing good for Jan....

Skip

 

[Wheels]

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OUCH! 12k lost in 2 days. I'm stuck in S and I for at least one more day. Hopefully they will find some support tomorrow. Passing the S&P benchmark is going to be tough from here and we're only 2 days into the year.

Dave

 

[CJ]

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This evening I'm making a transfer to go 100% S.

WHY?
The spread between the S and I funds is at92 cents... Indicating the S fund will outperform the I fund by 2-3% or moreover the next few days. But the direction could still be down... At this point the S fundwilllose less than the Ior gain more.

CJ

 

[Mike]

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No longer room for debate on this one - definitely a pullback. I think I've lost about half the money I gained in 2004... in two days. :shock:

 

[FundSurfer]

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The stock funds have actually only lost the gains of the past few weeks.

 

[Mike]

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When you talk like that, how do you expect bearish sentiment to grow?