Interfund Transfer 1/04 for 1/05/05

[Guest]

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Hirsch's Stock Trader's Almanac shows that there have been 20 years since 1950 in which the first 5 days of January began on a negative note (S&P500). 10 years ended positive and 10 ended negative. So these days aren't a very good indicator. However, the entire month of January is far better...45 of 54 years had an accurate January barometer...

The dollar has stabilized over the past month albeit with considerable whipsawing...I'm staying with the I fund until there is a new short term high in the dollar (over 83.25)..when that happens (assuming in January), I'm moving to S.

February is traditionally a bad month for the S&P500 (second worst in past 55 years and in past 5 years), so I will likely look to move more into G next month.

 

[Rod]

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saraho wrote:

I'm staying with the I fund until there is a new short term high in the dollar (over 83.25)..when that happens (assuming in January), I'm moving to S.

I bailed on(I) today in hopes of earning more with buying into the (S), which should be due for a rebound with the dollar on the rise.

It's going tobe a very RED day yetagain for (I).

God Bless:^

 

[smine]

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Bummer for sure. I'm back to early Dec. amounts. Doesn't anyone just have a crystal ball?? The best plan now for a recoup?

 

[Guest]

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Double top. There is support at 9900. 14B has come into the market the first two trading days of January 2005. The hedge funds have scouped up that for you.

When you are hearing the retail investor is getting back in at record numbers it was time to bail.

However the rotation is moving from small to large cap stocks. With stock options being expensed (wonder who mentioned that?) the small caps have nose bleed P/Es.

The bull to bear indicator is at higher levels now then January 2000.

Good luck! The last week of December was the top.

Even Spaf can figure out this candlestick:

Sell, sell, sell

 

[grandma]

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Hi, MT - how was Australia?...hope you enjoyed your vacation -

Did you go to G at the end of the year? Last I recall you were in C & S mid-december. I may have missed a reading, but you haven't posted for quite some time. Are we where you were telling us to watch for??:*

 

[Guest]

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Hi Ya Grandma, Had a ugly battle with Milk man and was on the edge to being banned. Seems kind of stupid now thou!

I am leaving on Saturday for downunder. I love their springs...January it rains about the whole month here.

I had a bad call in December and went to G for a couple days around the retail report time frame - was out of the market on one bad day and two good ones. That was a signal to me that investers were overlooking the economic reports and continue to throw money at the market. Early part of December I was 100% I then the later part I was 50/50 I/S (that is what I think I did-my statement is not on line yet). Read a couple reports from Etrade, Smith Barney etc that they were opening up a record number of retail investor accounts. Then the market topped out the end of December. If you read Tom's "good day" indicators and the market is in the red day after day that is a topping indicator. Also the IPOs coming on line and jumping 40% in their first day was giving me flashbacks to the winter of 1999.

I hope we talking about these things makes the markets turn back to the green. The big one is the job report and if the hedge funds continue to sell their holdings when new money is put to work.

If the fed tightenings .50 the next Feb meeting...then the small caps will have a rough couple of months.

Take care!

 

[smine]

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any good reason to go 100% I fund since it's price is going to be low??

 

[ou81200]

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I'm staying away from the I fund for awhile untill I see direction on what the dollar is going to do.