ILoveTDs Account Talk

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ILoveTDs said:
Yeah the 20 day and 80 day are converging. Friday it went from kissing the 20 to kissing the 80. I'm thinking maybe a 22.75 - 22.80 exit if it hits in July. Otherwise reassess what I want to do at the end of the month.
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Currently 22.56, so 1% tomorrow give's us .2256 and put's us around 22.78/9, I might have to consider using that last bullet if we are up big come decision time tomorrow.

What are your thoughts?
 
A real coin toss here, a lot of hevay hitters on other trading sites are split on this advance. Crappy internals and divergences are NOTsupportive of this run up. 1400 SPX is a popular number. Some have speculated that there is QE3 money already flowing to certain large institutions, don't know about that. In the meantime, Price is King so don't fight it.

Now watch the bottom fall out...:suspicious:
 
ILoveTDs said:
Thanks, now time to start looking for the door. Though i think I'll be in a few days at least...if not longer. I'll have to look at my spreadsheets tomorrow.


My seasonality thoughts. Second half of July is usually good for a percent or two, so considering we got 1.4 Friday the average should be up down up down from here, if your timing you might get some more, but buy and hold you probably got what your getting for July. August is usually good for a percent or two for buy and hold. Over the next 6 weeks, I think it's worth the risk to sit in the C/S Fund, you probably won't make much, but you'll beat the G/F Fund.
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Down Monday, got it all back Tuesday. Up Wednesday, flat Thursday and will loss all of Wednesday today it how it looksnow. That's, how did Birch call it, the week that never was? I still think Buy and hold you probably got what your getting for July.

I'm going to stick it out in the S Fund myself, as I don't think it will be way down next week either, and I would like to start August in equities if possible.

On a side note for my next trip into equities I think I will go at least 50/50 C and S Fund, if not all C Fund. C Fund has been out performing S Fund for the last 4-5 weeks.
 
JamesE said:
A real coin toss here, a lot of heavy hitters on other trading sites are split on this advance. Crappy internals and divergences are NOTsupportive of this run up. 1400 SPX is a popular number. Some have speculated that there is QE3 money already flowing to certain large institutions, don't know about that. In the meantime, Price is King so don't fight it.

Now watch the bottom fall out...:suspicious:
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It really ticks me off when I know what to do and don't do it. Maybe something magical will happen next week.
 
ILoveTDs said:
On a side note for my next trip into equities I think I will go at least 50/50 C and S Fund, if not all C Fund. C Fund has been out performing S Fund for the last 4-5 weeks.
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This C Fund is really starting to **** me off, but congratulations to those that choose it over the S Fund .. wish I had.
 
My technical thoughts. The gap between the 20 and 80 day SMA hasn't moved much in the last week and still remains small, meaning crappy days in June are being swapped for crappy days in July. However, the actual point is well below the 20 day, and using the bottom of Junes actual points as a tread line 1330 .INX should be about my bail point. I'll have to keep that in mind tomorrow if we're down.

My gut thoughts. In the short run we just had a flat day and three big down days in the S Fund I think we are due for an up day. However, Apple might kill any hope of tomorrow being an up day. In the long run, I still fill debates are around the corner and Obama is going to get slammed on this economy unless the market starts moving up, time for political manipulation of the markets to the upside until election day at least.

My seasonality thoughts. Second half of July is usually good for a percent or two, so considering were down 2% the law of averages should be more up days then down from here. August is usually good for a percent or two for buy and hold. Basically give the market a few days we should have some up days soon, don't lock in losses.

Not sure what my bail point will be yet - probably something below my technical analysis of 1330 .inx, but I'm far from a profitable exit point. Assuming we don't continue to drop double digits in .inx I'll probably be in awhile. Just my two cents.
 
ILoveTDs said:
Yes, I currently see no reason to exit.
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I stayed in as well. I'm a little jittery to sell my TNA shares since J Trader's composite system went on a sell yesterday and I waited an extra day which has worked out well so far. I guess I'll see how the rest of the day plays out. Thank you for your response!
 
Hard choice on TNA MaST. Go with your gut.

Tom post this morning last 8 Mondays have been down, so I think a hand is statistically due. However, if Monday does go down I bet it recovers most if not all Tuesday. IMHO hold, if up Monday sell, if down Monday hold tell tuesday.

I'll post more this afternoon
 
ILoveTDs said:
Hard choice on TNA MaST. Go with your gut.

Tom post this morning last 8 Mondays have been down, so I think a hand is statistically due. However, if Monday does go down I bet it recovers most if not all Tuesday. IMHO hold, if up Monday sell, if down Monday hold tell tuesday.

I'll post more this afternoon
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I was actually just researching this earlier today.. Mondays are more often than not down. And when they are, the losses are more often than not recovered the Tuesday after. Sorry I don't have specific numbers for you, lol.
 
ILoveTDs said:
Hard choice on TNA MaST. Go with your gut.

Tom post this morning last 8 Mondays have been down, so I think a hand is statistically due. However, if Monday does go down I bet it recovers most if not all Tuesday. IMHO hold, if up Monday sell, if down Monday hold tell tuesday.

I'll post more this afternoon
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Thank you for your insight man!
 
bmneveu said:
I was actually just researching this earlier today.. Mondays are more often than not down. And when they are, the losses are more often than not recovered the Tuesday after. Sorry I don't have specific numbers for you, lol.
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lol no problem. I'm curious to see what J's signal will be today...we seem to be taking off again.
 
Looking back at just the TSP funds, July 2 was the last up Monday. So for TSP purposes we have had three down Mondays.

On a side note bmn, if Monday is down I don't think it will be up Tuesday becuase of a Monday-Tuesday relationship, it's becuase the last two days of July have been more up then down the last 10 years. Anything can happen, just my observation of seasonality.

Go with your gut MaSTa.
 
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