ILoveTDs Account Talk

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Finally we get a day with some movement. Unfortunately I was on the wrong side, congratulations to those in the market.
 
No one, let alone 11 others, want's to play fantasy football huh? Guess I'll join some random public league then, unless I hear otherwise in the next few days. I figured we had a couple fantasy football fans on this site that would rather play with someone they relatively knew through this forum then a complete stranger, we'll see if I was wrong ... wouldn't be the first time.
 
ILoveTDs said:
No one, let alone 11 others, want's to play fantasy football huh? Guess I'll join some random public league then, unless I hear otherwise in the next few days. I figured we had a couple fantasy football fans on this site that would rather play with someone they relatively knew through this forum then a complete stranger, we'll see if I was wrong ... wouldn't be the first time.
Click to expand...

At my command today we recieved not one, but two warnings that the government considers FF to be gambling and that gambling on government time or using government computers is illegal. They even gave examples of how some office used the entry fee to buy everyone pizza at the end of the season and they were still found quilty. This may very well explain the lack of interest...
 
My technical thoughts. The market has been flat the last three weeks, which has made it hard to predict the market. However, over the last three weeks the gap between the 20 day SMA and 80 day SMA has increased from essentially zero to 64 cents for the S Fund. Although most might not care this gives my technical signals or “system” some room to grow between the two, not providing a buy or sell signal every other day. Currently, from a technical standpoint, about $22.90 for the S Fund would be a buy point for me.

My gut thoughts. August has been flat while Europe has been on vacation, I think once they return the market will be more volatile. In the long run, debates are around the corner and Obama is going to get slammed on this economy unless the market starts moving up, time for political manipulation of the markets to the upside until Election Day at least.

S Fund is currently at $23.14, with an all time high of $23.80; although that gives us 65 cents of upside before we hit all time highs, that is not much relative to the overall price. I think we might have some pullback before we move back up.

My seasonality thoughts. September is usually not good, but the first half of September seems to be better than the last half of September.

I fill it might be too risky to be in the market for extended periods of time over the next few weeks. I’ll be looking for a bunt and run move or $22.20 S Fund before I re-enter - Just my two cents.
 
August ended up -1.03%, that is my second negative month this year. I can't let those things start piling up :notrust:.
 
Yeah, glad to see the gain. I'm in this thing for 1.18 so I'll be holding for at least $1 before I dump. Hope we get their in the next week.
 
ILoveTDs said:
JP - You thinking about buy the dips on this thing? They seem pretty simple to read.
Click to expand...
No dip buying this one for me. Just waiting to recoup the money I put into it and I'm out. This stock moves too slow and I don't like having my money tied up this long when I can invest it in something that actually makes money.
 
Wow, if this moves to slow for you I would hate to see what moves fast for you. I was down 75% within months and see 30% days regularly.
 
ILoveTDs said:
Wow, if this moves to slow for you I would hate to see what moves fast for you. I was down 75% within months and see 30% days regularly.
Click to expand...
That's not what I meant. I picked this stock for a quick play not long range. Last time it peaked at the $1 range was first quarter of this year. That's too long to have my money tied up with worthless stock. I should have sold it when it peaked instead of buying more. Now I'm stuck waiting.
 
[FONT=&quot]My technical thoughts.[/FONT][FONT=&quot] COB Tuesday the S Fund dropped below the 20 days SMA, which signaled a little bit of a pull back or dip in the market. Since the market has used the 20 Day SMA as resistance and we may see this continued for a few more days to come. However, all the major SMA’s (10, 20, 25, 40, 50, 80, 100, and 200) have continued to drift upward over the last month, with all the division of four (10/40, 20/80, 25/100, 50/200) pointing to overall uptrend’s in the markets. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Over the last two months the gap between the 20 day SMA and 80 day SMA (for S Fund) has increased from essentially zero to $1.11 (20 Day is at $23.82 and 80 Day at $22.71). Although most might not care this gives my technical signals or “system” some room to grow between the two, not providing a buy or sell signal every other day. Currently, from a technical standpoint, about $25.00 for the S Fund would be a sell point for me, with the 80 day SMA being my stop loss point.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]My gut thoughts.[/FONT][FONT=&quot] Europe came back off summer vacation at the end of August and showed us they were ready to get back in this market. Additionally, Obama got ready for this coming Wednesday’s debate by having the Fed prop the market with QE3 – he didn’t want to get slammed on this economy. Furthermore, I don’t know how, an unlimited QE3 hasn’t yet affected the USD in-fact the USD is up on the EUR since QE3. I don’t know how the Obama administration manipulates the market but I suspect the political manipulation of the markets to the upside to continue until Election Day at least.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]S Fund is currently at $23.65, with an all time high of $24.46; although that gives us 80 cents of upside before we hit all time highs, that is not much relative to the overall price. I think we might have some pullback before we move back up.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]My seasonality thoughts.[/FONT][FONT=&quot] October is hit or miss, but usually big to one side – double digit October’s are not uncommon and many have been called black Octobers. [/FONT][FONT=&quot]


[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Currently I plan to follow my technical thoughts and got in the market COB Wednesday and plan to stay until we hit $25+ or the 80 day SMA stop loss, I may end up getting a little bit more aggressive then this based on my gut thoughts. The 80 day SMA stop loss will help me avoid at least a portion of any black October scenario we may encounter. Those more conservative than me might want to use a 50 day SMA stop loss, which is currently at $23.10 and provides for another $0.55 drop in the S Fund from here before the stop loss kicks in.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Thoughts????[/FONT]
 
ILoveTDs said:
My technical thoughts. COB Tuesday the S Fund dropped below the 20 days SMA, which signaled a little bit of a pull back or dip in the market. Since the market has used the 20 Day SMA as resistance and we may see this continued for a few more days to come. However, all the major SMA’s (10, 20, 25, 40, 50, 80, 100, and 200) have continued to drift upward over the last month, with all the division of four (10/40, 20/80, 25/100, 50/200) pointing to overall uptrend’s in the markets.

Over the last two months the gap between the 20 day SMA and 80 day SMA (for S Fund) has increased from essentially zero to $1.11 (20 Day is at $23.82 and 80 Day at $22.71). Although most might not care this gives my technical signals or “system” some room to grow between the two, not providing a buy or sell signal every other day. Currently, from a technical standpoint, about $25.00 for the S Fund would be a sell point for me, with the 80 day SMA being my stop loss point.

My gut thoughts. Europe came back off summer vacation at the end of August and showed us they were ready to get back in this market. Additionally, Obama got ready for this coming Wednesday’s debate by having the Fed prop the market with QE3 – he didn’t want to get slammed on this economy. Furthermore, I don’t know how, an unlimited QE3 hasn’t yet affected the USD in-fact the USD is up on the EUR since QE3. I don’t know how the Obama administration manipulates the market but I suspect the political manipulation of the markets to the upside to continue until Election Day at least.

S Fund is currently at $23.65, with an all time high of $24.46; although that gives us 80 cents of upside before we hit all time highs, that is not much relative to the overall price. I think we might have some pullback before we move back up.

My seasonality thoughts. October is hit or miss, but usually big to one side – double digit October’s are not uncommon and many have been called black Octobers.




Currently I plan to follow my technical thoughts and got in the market COB Wednesday and plan to stay until we hit $25+ or the 80 day SMA stop loss, I may end up getting a little bit more aggressive then this based on my gut thoughts. The 80 day SMA stop loss will help me avoid at least a portion of any black October scenario we may encounter. Those more conservative than me might want to use a 50 day SMA stop loss, which is currently at $23.10 and provides for another $0.55 drop in the S Fund from here before the stop loss kicks in.


Thoughts????
Click to expand...

Wow! Thanks for sharing TD. Re: the dollar vs Euro -- the ECB has been aggressively buying sovereign bonds. So maybe that explains USD staying up despite QE3?
 
S Fund closed exactly on the 20 day SMA today. At leaset they are both going up, I just wish we could break the 20 day.

Another 2.5% and I think I'll get out and wait for a pull back, just might take some time to get 2.5%.
 
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