[FONT="] [/FONT]My technical thoughts. The 20 day crossed the 80 day SMA on Tuesday and took off today, showing a strong uptrend. However, the actual point is now well above the 20 day, and 1400 .INX has proven a though nut to crack. Sitting at 1385 we still have 15 point wiggle room, but that isn't much. Technicals point to an exit point.
My gut thoughts. In the short run we just had a so so day and two big up days in the S Fun d, so conventional wisdom would be Monday should be down. However, it was Friday and I think we made 2% with a bunch of "dumb money" taking their money and going home for the weekend, so why didn't we see a sale off in the last hour?
I think it might be the institutional investor getting greedy, I think they stayed in and that’s why we didn’t see a huge sell off. If so, what is their plan for Monday? I can see their “Analysis” having many plans: 1) sell low volume first thing in the morning at deep discount, tank market to spook “dumb money” sell and DCA the way down for the day 2) buy low volume at 1392ish first thing in the morning then midday, end of day, Tuesday sell big volume at 1395ish and work another 10 points out of this. Just my paranoia.
In the long run, I still fill debates are around the corner and Obama is going to get slammed on this economy unless the market starts moving up, time for political manipulation of the markets to the upside until Election Day at least.
My seasonality thoughts. Last two days of July and first day of August is usually on the up side. With Jobs report next Friday, COB Wednesday is probably the exit. August is usually good for a percent or two for buy and hold, but the biggest loss of the month is the first 6 days of August. Basically might be worth taking first week of August off and buy and hold the rest of the month.
If were up Monday come IFT deadline I might bail to G Fund for a while, we’ll see what Monday brings.
