I fund for March 08

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Nikkei down 3.27% :worried:
AORD down 2.95% :worried:


woe is me


FV for Friday(previous) = +$0.26

That is pathetic but not unexpected since CNBC has caused the World Markets to fall on their face. Fact is CNBC had an alleged source of an Ambac bailout yet not one Bank stepped up to give them a dime. Now on low volume the market has tanked which means FALSE HOPE - once again CNBC has them all holding out hope. I would rather see a 800 point drop and get it over with and then those waiting will be forced to make a move either take a loss and hold, sell and take a loss or move to Bonds etc. and take a loss. Then after this happens you can only hope the SEC goes after CNBC for selling false information as fact when it was nothing more than a fake market on fake rumors but real people lost millions or real money because of CNBC and those who bought into their Obama great speech no substance yes we can BS makes me sick.:rolleyes: CNBC is the same as watching the Shop at Home Network from years ago with Don West and Eddie with their greatest deal in history of Shop at Home selling Jordan or McGwire cards for $5,000. The Shaq plaque a piece of wood with an 8 X 10 photo for only $79.00 folks these will sell out tomorrow they will be $150. LMAO !!!!!!!!!!!:rolleyes:
 
has anyone been stuck in the I fund like me since before the beginning of the year, and what do you plan to do ????? :confused:

thanks
guchi
 
has anyone been stuck in the I fund like me since before the beginning of the year, and what do you plan to do ????? :confused:

thanks
guchi

I may go all in "I" COB. Labor Market numbers just in...not good for futures.

Might Hit and Run.

Buda
 
I may go all in "I" COB. Labor Market numbers just in...not good for futures.

Might Hit and Run.

Buda

Watch out for the FV. We will surely get killed this morning, but the PPT will be hard at work this afternoon. I wouldn't rule out a surprise rate cut sometime today. Would result in a big +FV today, have to be paid on Monday.
 
Watch out for the FV. We will surely get killed this morning, but the PPT will be hard at work this afternoon. I wouldn't rule out a surprise rate cut sometime today. Would result in a big +FV today, have to be paid on Monday.

The problem is that the Fed hasn't got much more room to cut. I was watching CNBC this morning and they were talking about how the markets have priced in a 75 basis point cut for 3/18. 75 BASIS POINTS?! That's insane! One of the reasons that oil is at $105 a barrel is because the dollar is in the tank, and one of the reasons that the dollar is in the tank is because the Fed keeps cutting rates. At some point the Fed is going to have to say "Look, this is going to be painful, and all we are doing is forestalling the inevitable, so we may as well get it over with." Let the market correct itself and then get on with business.
 
The problem is that the Fed hasn't got much more room to cut. I was watching CNBC this morning and they were talking about how the markets have priced in a 75 basis point cut for 3/18. 75 BASIS POINTS?! That's insane! One of the reasons that oil is at $105 a barrel is because the dollar is in the tank, and one of the reasons that the dollar is in the tank is because the Fed keeps cutting rates. At some point the Fed is going to have to say "Look, this is going to be painful, and all we are doing is forestalling the inevitable, so we may as well get it over with." Let the market correct itself and then get on with business.


I think the Fed needs to raise the rates by 50 basis points, we need a shock to the system, and a correction to the dollar. We can not stay on this path much longer or I feel there will be a massive fall out from it.
 
has anyone been stuck in the I fund like me since before the beginning of the year, and what do you plan to do ????? :confused:

thanks
guchi


Oh boy, someone asked :)

Guess I've been stuck looking at it from being able to frequently pull in earnings here and there. Not sure after today, but as of 03/05 my math put me at 6.5%. I'm sure that's about all gone today.

01/29 F @ 12.14 C @ 15.38 I @22.44 (each at 5%)
02/01 F @ 12.16 C @ 15.76 (outgoing) I @ 22.97 (rolled C into I, that kind of stung)
02/11 F@ 12.14 I @ 21.54
02/13 F @ 12.11 (outgoing) I @22.01 (rolled F into I)
02/27 I @23.21
03/03 I @ 22.50
03/05 I @ 23.43

I'm not that bright with numbers, took initial amount into F C I, I balance on 03/05 and figured percent increase. A plus FV on Monday would keep me in the safe zone (if there is such a thing). Surely, not easy to "make" money at this point (the government reserves that for themselves).

If I drops below $20.00 I'd worry, but not too much. Only playing with a very small portion of TSP investment.

As a tax payer, my status is officially single this year. Changed last years 23% contribution to 6%. Did a start up business with something I'd been doing as a "hobby", made investments into tooling, also brought in 100% business items previously used as personal. Included truck purchased cash in 2005 and two other large ticket items with 30% stated business use. Did not depreciate real property or take a home office deduction. Depreciated the personal equipment and rolled it into straight line depreciation, most over 7 years. Gross on business income last year was $3200.00, Net was something like -$12,000.00. Reduced my tax liability from both day job and business almost $2300.00 cold hard cash. Actually get a refund instead of owing $1800.00. Didn't cheat, just have to keep making purchases and investing in the business for a few years until this passes over. At least that plugged one bleeding hole.

As bad as my market skills are, it was a hell of a lot easier sitting behind this keyboard, following one of the Premium services, and raking in the cash. Now I have to work, and have tons of paperwork. I hate paperwork.

Don't keep "inventory", and only restore or refurbish from "cores" with everything rolled into the cost of a "unit" for tax purposes.
I fix junk according to the IRS, but actually hand make a lot of these items (from junk incase an agent is watching).

http://content.imagesocket.com/thumbs/14ac.jpg
http://content.imagesocket.com/thumbs/1af7a.jpg
http://content.imagesocket.com/thumbs/3a87a.jpg
http://content.imagesocket.com/thumbs/3cd37.jpg

Kind of doing the same with Afgan pine trees this year. 250 trees, goal is to pay off toyhauler with sales in 4 to 5 years. Hopefully the TSP has better investments for us by then and I can retire.
 
I think the Fed needs to raise the rates by 50 basis points, we need a shock to the system, and a correction to the dollar. We can not stay on this path much longer or I feel there will be a massive fall out from it.
YOU'VE GOT MY VOTE !
 
Friday's EAFE total down -$0.39
plus Friday's(previous) FV of $0.26 = -$0.13
minus today's FV of -$0.15= -$0.28 :worried:
 
G fund 12.36 push
F fund 12.03 up .03
C fund 14.65 down .12
S fund 17.52 down .14
I fund 21.91 down .28 :worried:
FV for Monday (previous) =$0.15
 
It looked like a good idea for a -FV, but I could not see enough of a difference.

I need some help from Karnak.


The EFA suggested a -FV, but with the afternoon rally, on a Friday, a -FV does not make any sense. I funders got screwed IMO. Barclay once again is trying to be inconsistent.

Btw, You doing an excellent job. Thanks for filling in. It frees me up to concentrate on the markets.:)
 
Hi Birch,

Only an IMO...so here goes..."NO, no, NO, no!". This is almost a week after ur post, and telling by the past week, the C or I is was not the place to be. Sorry to kick you when you "may" be down. But, although the market is oversold, the momentum and market data, are heading south (thanks to the negative media AND the "irrational" FED moves); you could save a few pennies by playing it safe"r". Said enuff, never mind me...just a newbie anyways!! Best Regards - BIGBULLY!
 
Holy Batman...

March 8, 2008
US Fed releases $200bn as credit crisis hits new depths

Siobhan Kennedy
The global credit crisis plunged to new depths yesterday as persistent fears over the collapse of a large financial institution caused funding markets to dry up and forced the US Federal Reserve to make available up to $200 billion (£99.3 billion) of emergency financing.

The Fed said that a “rapid deterioration” in the credit markets in recent days had prompted it to begin a series of fresh cash injections in an effort to shore up the balance sheets of America’s stricken banks. Unemployment also shot up in the US last month, adding to the gloom. US stocks tumbled, dragging the Dow Jones industrial average down 138.40 points to 11.902.00. Treasury prices jumped and the dollar fell to record lows.

Bankers said that the moves underscored the deepening severity of the crisis, which was triggered last June by the collapse of the American sub-prime mortgage market and has got progressively worse since. One senior banker in London said: “This is the beginning of the real credit crisis and it’s not going to end without a major casualty.”

Sources said that the present crisis was triggered by cash-strapped banks starting to get tough with their hedge fund clients by making margin calls on loans and drastically raising interest rate payments overnight. The move has pushed the funds into the panic-selling of assets, mostly AAA-rated US mortgage securities, and several are thought to be on the brink of collapse. One of them, Carlyle Capital Corporation (CCC), said yesterday that overnight it had received “substantial additional margin calls” linked to its souring investments in US mortgages.

Thornburg, the US mortgage lender, exacerbated investor jitters when it said that it did not have enough cash to meet $610 million of margin calls. Last week Peloton, a London hedge fund, collapsed after it became unable to meet the banks’ demands.

Bankers said that the problem was related to a perceived increased risk surrounding the AAA-rated prime mortgages and to the consequences of dangerous overleveraging of the funds themselves. In the case of Carlyle, its CCC fund had leveraged its assets by $30 for every $1 of its own cash.

“The whole industry was created by cheap debt,” the banking source said. “It was really all just an illusion.”

Underlining the Fed’s desperate attempts to calm markets, for the first time it said that it would accept mortgage-backed assets as collateral from the banks for fresh loans. As the fear spread, the perceived risk of owning US corporate bonds - measured by the widening of credit spreads – also rose to its highest level.

Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, the US analyst firm, said that the US financial industry would need $1 trillion of permanent capital to maintain current pricing of mortgage assets. However, it added that the industry would not be able to obtain that amount.

Shares of Carlyle’s CCC fund were suspended in Amsterdam yesterday as it disclosed that it had received more default notices from its lenders and that some of those lenders had been forced to sell CCC’s mortgage assets in an effort to recover their loans. The dire forecast came only 24 hours after CCC said that it had been issued with $37 million of margin calls from lenders, having satisfied $60 million of calls only the week before.

Sean Egan, of the Egan-Jones Ratings Company, said: “When financial history is written, the Carlyle liquidation will go down as one of the single most major events. Carlyle has built an image as one of the smartest investors around, and to see one of its funds fall apart shows there is a fundamental problem with the market.”http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3508468.ece
 
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