10/22/25
Stocks were mixed yesterday with the Dow closing at an all-time high, while the S&P 500 (C-fund), Nasdaq, and small caps (S-fund) were all flat. Yields were down helping give the F-fund a gain, and the dollar was up, which help push the I-fund lower. Earnings season is starting to kick into a higher gear so after hours trading could start to dictate the action.
Netflix and Texas Instruments were down sharply after hours after reporting earnings yesterday. Netflix had some excuse regarding a tax issue with Brazil that hurt earnings, but Texas Instruments had a more legitimate concern and sighted weaker guidance than expected for the next quarter.
Neither are big market movers, but whenever the market is looking for direction, news can nudge the indices one way or another. It's still very early in the earnings season with most of the market moving companies reporting next week or the week after.
Google (Alphabet) was up sharply after hours after a cloud deal announcement with another company, and Google has more influence on the indices than both Netflix and Texas Instruments, so that combination may be a push.
Not that we care about gold in the TSP, unless you have some money in gold on the TSP mutual fund side, but the precious metal lost over 5% yesterday, which I hear was its largest one day loss since 2013. Of course gold has been ripping higher for months, so a little profit taking shouldn't be a surprise. And as far as stocks go, we'd rather see investors adding money into equities than a safety play like gold.
The F-fund was up again because yields slipped to a new low and the 10-year Treasury Yield has closed below 4% for the 3rd time in 4 days. As always, it's not so much the level that is a concern, but how quickly it moves, because yields do change investment approaches.
Meanwhile the dollar (UUP) bounced off of support - the 200-day EMA but it is now retesting that 200-day MA (simple average) as resistance so the back and forth continued.
That 0.40% rally in UUP gave ACWX a tough time yesterday as I-fund had a bad day. In yesterday's commentary I gave myself a hard time for being wrong about saying the I-fund should under perform US stocks if the dollar rallied, because it really hadn't been having that effect in recent weeks. Yesterday we saw one of those days where that was the case as the I-fund did feel the effects of a rally in the dollar.
And let me bore you again with the Dow Transportation Index, but this was interesting. Pennant formations do have a tendency to make a fake out in one direction, then breakout in another, which can and will get investors leaning the wrong way. The breakout isn't official yet until we see at least three closes above the resistance, but that was certainly a fake out on the downside.
We have a few more days left in this post expiration week that has a history of being bearish, and volatile, but also created many buying opportunities in other years.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was dead flat yesterday with that 22 cent gain. It turned out to be a spinning top day where it closed near where it opened, and right in the middle of the day's range. These can be turning points, although they are signs of indecision, and that seems to be the consensus on Wall Street where the bears are still lurking but the bulls are still in control. We could see a double top pullback, but it's not a major top since the previous high was just a couple of weeks ago.
DWCPF Index (S-Fund) is still struggling to close above that 2530 area after several attempts. It looks like a chart that wants to breakout, but the buying has continued to dry up at that level. If it does close above that line, it could open the door to the other nervous bulls.
BND (bonds / F-fund) made another new high as yields continue to slip lower. It's a bullish looking chart for the F-fund but pullbacks to retest the breakout levels are very possible in the short-term.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mixed yesterday with the Dow closing at an all-time high, while the S&P 500 (C-fund), Nasdaq, and small caps (S-fund) were all flat. Yields were down helping give the F-fund a gain, and the dollar was up, which help push the I-fund lower. Earnings season is starting to kick into a higher gear so after hours trading could start to dictate the action.
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Netflix and Texas Instruments were down sharply after hours after reporting earnings yesterday. Netflix had some excuse regarding a tax issue with Brazil that hurt earnings, but Texas Instruments had a more legitimate concern and sighted weaker guidance than expected for the next quarter.
Neither are big market movers, but whenever the market is looking for direction, news can nudge the indices one way or another. It's still very early in the earnings season with most of the market moving companies reporting next week or the week after.
Google (Alphabet) was up sharply after hours after a cloud deal announcement with another company, and Google has more influence on the indices than both Netflix and Texas Instruments, so that combination may be a push.
Not that we care about gold in the TSP, unless you have some money in gold on the TSP mutual fund side, but the precious metal lost over 5% yesterday, which I hear was its largest one day loss since 2013. Of course gold has been ripping higher for months, so a little profit taking shouldn't be a surprise. And as far as stocks go, we'd rather see investors adding money into equities than a safety play like gold.
The F-fund was up again because yields slipped to a new low and the 10-year Treasury Yield has closed below 4% for the 3rd time in 4 days. As always, it's not so much the level that is a concern, but how quickly it moves, because yields do change investment approaches.
Meanwhile the dollar (UUP) bounced off of support - the 200-day EMA but it is now retesting that 200-day MA (simple average) as resistance so the back and forth continued.
That 0.40% rally in UUP gave ACWX a tough time yesterday as I-fund had a bad day. In yesterday's commentary I gave myself a hard time for being wrong about saying the I-fund should under perform US stocks if the dollar rallied, because it really hadn't been having that effect in recent weeks. Yesterday we saw one of those days where that was the case as the I-fund did feel the effects of a rally in the dollar.
And let me bore you again with the Dow Transportation Index, but this was interesting. Pennant formations do have a tendency to make a fake out in one direction, then breakout in another, which can and will get investors leaning the wrong way. The breakout isn't official yet until we see at least three closes above the resistance, but that was certainly a fake out on the downside.
We have a few more days left in this post expiration week that has a history of being bearish, and volatile, but also created many buying opportunities in other years.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was dead flat yesterday with that 22 cent gain. It turned out to be a spinning top day where it closed near where it opened, and right in the middle of the day's range. These can be turning points, although they are signs of indecision, and that seems to be the consensus on Wall Street where the bears are still lurking but the bulls are still in control. We could see a double top pullback, but it's not a major top since the previous high was just a couple of weeks ago.
DWCPF Index (S-Fund) is still struggling to close above that 2530 area after several attempts. It looks like a chart that wants to breakout, but the buying has continued to dry up at that level. If it does close above that line, it could open the door to the other nervous bulls.
BND (bonds / F-fund) made another new high as yields continue to slip lower. It's a bullish looking chart for the F-fund but pullbacks to retest the breakout levels are very possible in the short-term.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
