Griffin Account Talk

[Griffin]

My feeling is that the market needs an injection of optimism to spur it forward and it ain't going to get that this month. Anything short of that and the market does nothing, until the reality of doing nothing kicks in and it sells.

Anyway, you slice it, I see a buying opportunity coming.

I know the market dropped because of the earnings report, but it's like it was reading my mind today and decided to throw me a bone. Ever have one of those days?

With the yields down right now, I can see the markets being disappointed if there's no change in the fed speech.

350z...the drop Best Buy provided this afternoon managed to trump any disappointment the Fed produced. Anyway, I think the red we got today was what the market needed to get the dip buyers moving again.

 

[350zCommTech]

350z...the drop Best Buy provided this afternoon managed to trump any disappointment the Fed produced. Anyway, I think the red we got today was what the market needed to get the dip buyers moving again.

Well, the markets were well off their lows just prior to the Fed, and with the way they finished, I'm afraid the dip buyers might have already bought in. If tomorrow's retails sales come in strong, the buying will continue. What did you think about Goldman Sacks earnings report? They beat estimates by a mile but it wasn't good enough.

 

[Griffin]

Well, the markets were well off their lows just prior to the Fed, and with the way they finished, I'm afraid the dip buyers might have already bought in.

Do you think the finish yesterday wasn't strong enough to produce a rally? (just because futures are looking good this morning doesn't mean your wrong - futures are good for predicting the first 15 minutes)

If tomorrow's retails sales come in strong, the buying will continue. What did you think about Goldman Sacks earnings report? They beat estimates by a mile but it wasn't good enough.

Goldman-Sachs has had an incredible run this year (I think their up something astronomical..like 80% for the year) so anything short of stellar was going to be a cause for concern. The market's reaction to their report was not anything other then localized profit taking and I don't expect it to spill over to the rest of the market (at least not today).

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Talk about missing the forest through the trees, I almost missed the set-up (again :notrust: ) on the S-fund. This is definitely a short play (one day more then likely).

Griffin,

WHAT was the set-up??!!

 

[Griffin]

I had been so focused on the S&P (SPX), and the possibility that it is rolling over (the blue to the pink channel) that I did not notice the consistency between the rest of the funds (the green channels) and the way they were lining up to make another rally. I was looking for the funds to finish off what looked like a cyclical down turn in the longer term red channels.

Does that make sense? I'm not saying I'm right, but it looks like a possibility.

View attachment 1247

 

[fedgolfer]

... good point. Also, if you do a line chart of the TSP fund prices, you'll see that the CSI are all coming off support lines. in the I fund the price broke out of a rising wedge on the north side -- and the past couple of days the trendline that was once resistance is now support. C & S are both within thier short trends and just bounced off of their support lines.

the OHLC on the equity funds vs the straight line on the TSP funds do give a slightly different view though. But the main message is the same... upside short term potential.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I had been so focused on the S&P (SPX), and the possibility that it is rolling over (the blue to the pink channel) that I did not notice the consistency between the rest of the funds (the green channels) and the way they were lining up to make another rally. I was looking for the funds to finish off what looked like a cyclical down turn in the longer term red channels.

Does that make sense? I'm not saying I'm right, but it looks like a possibility.

View attachment 1247

I don't know, at least looks like a prescient 1 day move as you said. (if this morning holds)

 

[Griffin]

I don't know, at least looks like a prescient 1 day move as you said. (if this morning holds)

By the time you know anything with any certainty, it's too late to change. I was expecting a lot more strength then we are seeing this morning. I completely understand your hesitation, I'm not entirely sure that my mind wasn't playing tricks on me and showing me what I wanted to see :nuts: .

I'm going to give it a few more minutes, either I'm going to stay in the S or I will move into the F-fund.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

That $TNX is looking pretty strong. I think the bond traders are finally believing the FED is going to hold off a little longer on easing. I had some in F today, but just moved it out. Yesterday's close on S looks like some fair support. 'I' is still chuggin along even with dollar climbing (trending with $TNX)

 

[Griffin]

Volume is high and A/D is marginally good. The S&P really needs to get on top the 1415 line soon. It's seems the market will hold, pending the CPI data. I'm sticking.

 

[FundSurfer]

What's that Avatar? A Jew shaking hands with the loonie from Iran?
"Can't we all just get along?" ??!?

 

[Show-me]

Needs a cross hair on the loonie. O damn, thinking out loud again.

 

[grandma]

"Can't we all just get along?" ??!?

You will notice who has one hand hidden from view -
...much like those 20 rockets that have been fired off from Gaza this week - after they signed a `cease fire.' MOD - SOP -

 

[Griffin]

Fundsurfer,

Birch actually got this one right - I indeed meant this as sarcasm at it's finest. Here's a couple of links to the stories behind the photo.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061212/wl_nm/iran_holocaust_dc

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061212/ap_on_go_pr_wh/bush_holocaust

My personal opinion-

Ahmadinejad means to ignite a spark that will rewrite history (at least in many parts of the world). Sounds ludicrous right? - give it 40-50 years. There are a lot of people in power around this world who would benefit from "wiping that nasty little stain" off the image of facism.

It is very easy for a government to write history how ever they want it percieved. An example "no child left behind" and nationwide standarized tests are setting the stage in this country. The Brits still teach their childern about the evil insidious american colonists who consipred in a dark basement by candlelight to overthrow the rightful king. If you can control what childern are raised to believe you can effect their viewpoint forever.

Don't kid yourself into thinking this guy is a lunatic, he may very well be the next Stalin or Hitler (or at least the precursor) - with the experience of knowing where they went wrong in their PR campaigns. Children all over the world (Venzuela? Bolivia? Germany? Russia? Iraq?, Pakistan? North Korea? - that's a lot of people) may soon be taught "the debate over the morality of holocausts".

Will he use an atomic bomb against us - I doubt it, but he will use it if we try to pre-emptively stop him from building a massive army once he has secured his satellite nations borders and resources.

Don't call me paranoid - I believe this is the type of thinking behind why this guy is doing what he is doing.

What's that Avatar? A Jew shaking hands with the loonie from Iran?
"Can't we all just get along?" ??!?

 

[airlift]

I can't agree more or add much more to your summary of this potential threat to world peace and stability.

 

[Birchtree]

The yield curve is saying "economic slowdown" while the stock market's PE continues to express relatively unqualified exuberance. Even if all is well as the SPX sounds like it's suggesting, it would be a healthier, less vulnerable market if it weren't quite so in love with its own prospects as well as with itself.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6535.htm

 

[Griffin]

Lacker has got to be laughing up his sleeve this morning.

Will today be the set-up for the next wave, or is this (for the umpteenth time) the start to the long awaited pullback.

I'm not discounting the later simply because of seasonality. In fact, the divergence from seasonality is the strongest reason I have for the pullback option. It would work out nicely to have a couple of days of consolidation and then a huge Santa Claus rally next week.

I am leaning towards this as being a buying opportunity, question is when (today or tomorrow) Before I march off to the charts, I am going to wait an hour or so and see what materializes out of the crude inventories.

 

[Griffin]

View attachment 1256

When the DWCP opened into the "uh-oh" zone this morning, I had my doubts about the S&P holding support at 1415 (this has been such a critical number lately). However, the 10 day intraday looks favorable. I am moving back into the S-fund

 

[Griffin]

I forgot to mention - crude inventories are tomorrow - again, I need calendar training .

Tomorrow could yield another wave, or a dead cat bounce..unless today is the DCB and we proceed down tomorrow.

I'm in for better or worse, but I am leary of the GDP and chain deflator which (let me check my calendar) - Thursday....so today may be a one shot deal.

...materializes out of the crude inventories.

 

[Griffin]

I spent the last couple of days hanging out in the F-fund waiting for the run that Tom mentioned this morning. Unless something happens to change my mind in the next hour, I will be trading my 1-day run in the S back in for F tonight. I don't know how long I am going to stay, but I am taking up a holding pattern until I see a better opportunity emerge, even if it is only a one day here or there. Santa claus will come for my child, but I am keeping tight control on my stocking in case gremlins in elf clothing show up.

I have no regrets about taking a cautious approach. I don't see this rally going much beyond the first or second week of January before a serious correction occurs. At best, I see it holding out until the 4Q earnings reports. If that is correct, one could bail at anytime and reasonable expect to have a much better buying opportunity in the not to distant future.