Griffin Account Talk

[Propstrike]

Nice move on the S.

 

[ayla]

I respect your efforts at trying to call members on their deviations from "credibility" but that said, I wanted to comment that your "yard fight" with birchtree caused me to review this old adage:

"Never fight with a Pig, You both get dirty and the Pig enjoys it"

 

[Griffin]

Ayla,

You are absolutely correct. In the world I live in, it makes sense not to:

1) discourage folks from trying to help themselves
2) steal information and present it as your own
3) take information out of context and misrepresent it
4) insert propoganda into a study group

But that is the world I live in. My head feels much better now that I have stopped banging it on the wall.

Gosh darn, that "ethics in scienece and engineering" course I took in college.

I respect your efforts at trying to call members on their deviations from "credibility" but that said, I wanted to comment that your "yard fight" with birchtree caused me to review this old adage:

"Never fight with a Pig, You both get dirty and the Pig enjoys it"

 

[Birchtree]

Are you saying it took you 79 trades to beat me by 6%? That's remarkable. Maybe there is something to this timer strategy.

 

[FundSurfer]

Are you saying it took you 79 trades to beat me by 6%? That's remarkable. Maybe there is something to this timer strategy.

You should have read enough of this board to know the answer to that question is that:

1. The percentage might look a whole lot different in a bear market.
&
2. Do the math... 6% adds up over time ... it's called the magic of compounding.

 

[ChemEng]

You say 6%. I say he beat you by ~30%.

Then considering how much 6% per year across 25-30 years is... I would definately say there is something to timer strategy.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Anyone arguing that an additional 6% a year is not worth some additional effort is an IDIOT. Period. Over a 30 year career, that 6% per year causes your account to double an additional 2.5 times using the rule of 72.

 

[airlift]

I agree with Fundsurfer, ChemEng, Show-me, Griffin and many other unnamed colleagues here. The fact that trading your account requires a hands-on approach instead of riding the cycles up and down means that you have to know what you are doing. However, technical analysis (TA) if properly interpreted and its signals understood, can help you increase your nest-egg in a shorter time span and can also help you go to cash in a defensive posture when market conditions become overextended. In fact, TA can even help buy-and-holders increase their wealth, provided that they are willing to be flexible and open-minded! Happy Holidays and profitable trading to all of you and me also!....

 

[Griffin]

Anyone arguing that an additional 6% a year is not worth some additional effort is an IDIOT. Period. Over a 30 year career, that 6% per year causes your account to double an additional 2.5 times. So if you account would have been 1 million, the additional 6% per year makes your account 6 million.

VirginiaBob,

You got that right - For those out there that want a very easyway to explore the "magic of compounding" the link below is an excellent site. It allows you to incorporate inflation effects as well.

http://personal.fidelity.com/toolbox/growth/growth.shtml

On a side note - I am through with the debate I have been having with Birchtree. My moderator hat is back on and I am not going to pursue the matter further. I promise I will not pop into your (that "your" is a collective "to all") talk thread and tell you what you should or should not do and I expect y'all to reciprocate.

Happy holidays and happy investing

 

[Gritz]

Nice comments Griffin, glad to hear a "higher road" thread on future debates !

Based on your moves and resulting returns, not sure how or why anyone would dismiss your input, as long as it is stated with the right intentions, or since it is written, stated with the proper tact. Of course, we should not be too sensitive if/when someone disagrees with a strategy /idea/prognosis/etc, if we all agreed, all the time, we'd miss some learning opportunities.

Anyway, it was nice to read your comments. Merry Christmas!

 

[Griffin]

Merry Christmas to you Gritz

Disagreement and discussion are the fuel for producing better results. I absolutely encourage this. However, when someone approaches a discussion with the attitude that: they are right, they are perfect, there is no other way and anyone who disagrees is a moron - it defeats the purpose.

I don't have a problem with someone having that viewpoint - like you said - that is their loss. I have a problem when the viewpoint becomes a campaign.

My advice to all: the harder someone tries to sell you a product, the more you need to ask yourself, why the product is not selling itself - and maybe even more importantly in this case - why no one is buying it except the guy selling it.

Back to the day's events

Since I finally got my F-fund reward yesterday (and hopefully a tad more today), I think I am going to "buy the dip" one more timeI would like to break the magic 24% for the year (that's the point where your money doubles every 4 years).

Here's my thoughts on the current conditions: I see the dollar setting up for a possible drop and the trend says I-fund, but as we saw in May - the I-fund is the worst place to be if this market pulls back. I am not going to get real nervous until about the 3-4 trading day of January, so the I is on the table for the immediate future.

The S-fund really disappointed in this last rally. I chalk that up to a rotation into blue chips - which also tells me the general market is starting to get concerned about a pullback again. The C has been performing nicely, so I see that as the other option, a safer alternative - which is where I may end up going into the new year.

I am fairly sure I am going to jump back in today and the deciding factor will be if I think the market will change course after lunch today significantly hampering a play into the I-fund.

Nice comments Griffin, glad to hear a "higher road" thread on future debates !

Based on your moves and resulting returns, not sure how or why anyone would dismiss your input, as long as it is stated with the right intentions, or since it is written, stated with the proper tact. Of course, we should not be too sensitive if/when someone disagrees with a strategy /idea/prognosis/etc, if we all agreed, all the time, we'd miss some learning opportunities.

Anyway, it was nice to read your comments. Merry Christmas!

Last thing Gritz, I have made some big mistakes this year so don't take what I say as gospel - no one ever gets it right all the time.

 

[Griffin]

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Last week I went into the I-fund and since I don't split my money I went 100%. While the I is now up .8% for the week, the S is up 1.5%. However, I fully expect the foreign market to play catch up to today's run, so I didn't make the switch. I expect all the relevant indexes to push to new highs here over the next 5-7 trading days.

The Santa momentum is running strong and I do not see any reason to expect a change. Right now there is about a 3% delta in the channel of EFA and about a 5% delta in the DWCP. The dollar index is struggling against 84.0 which has a history of being a critical point, and is now approaching the 50 dma. I expect the dollar to make a big move here one way or the other.

The way I see it, the key to the next couple of days is threading the needle between: holding onto the I long enough to catcj a dollar drop, and making the switch to the S before the next big push to new highs in the DWCP.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Merry Christmas to you Gritz

Disagreement and discussion are the fuel for producing better results. I absolutely encourage this. However, when someone approaches a discussion with the attitude that: they are right, they are perfect, there is no other way and anyone who disagrees is a moron - it defeats the purpose.

I don't have a problem with someone having that viewpoint - like you said - that is their loss. I have a problem when the viewpoint becomes a campaign.

My advice to all: the harder someone tries to sell you a product, the more you need to ask yourself, why the product is not selling itself - and maybe even more importantly in this case - why no one is buying it except the guy selling it.

Back to the day's events

Since I finally got my F-fund reward yesterday (and hopefully a tad more today), I think I am going to "buy the dip" one more timeI would like to break the magic 24% for the year (that's the point where your money doubles every 4 years).

Here's my thoughts on the current conditions: I see the dollar setting up for a possible drop and the trend says I-fund, but as we saw in May - the I-fund is the worst place to be if this market pulls back. I am not going to get real nervous until about the 3-4 trading day of January, so the I is on the table for the immediate future.

The S-fund really disappointed in this last rally. I chalk that up to a rotation into blue chips - which also tells me the general market is starting to get concerned about a pullback again. The C has been performing nicely, so I see that as the other option, a safer alternative - which is where I may end up going into the new year.

I am fairly sure I am going to jump back in today and the deciding factor will be if I think the market will change course after lunch today significantly hampering a play into the I-fund.



Last thing Gritz, I have made some big mistakes this year so don't take what I say as gospel - no one ever gets it right all the time.

Griffin...I'm assuming that the 24% is a 'continuous' compounding figure, versus the traditional 'annual' compounding rule of 72??...72/24% = 3 years to double money??

 

[Griffin]

Griffin...I'm assuming that the 24% is a 'continuous' compounding figure, versus the traditional 'annual' compounding rule of 72??...72/24% = 3 years to double money??

24.1% is what you need to double your NET money every four years assuming a 3% inflation rate. You are correct 24% will double your ACTUAL money every three years. When you look at it from this perspective, it makes you appreciate an inflation fighting Fed.

Moving on, I completely lost track of the time today (I started finishing my basement - a big reason I am leaning towards a more long term approach this winter, since I won't have a whole lot of time to strategize at night). I probably would have moved to the I given the initial dollar drop and early weakness in the market. The action in the dollar overall was good for the I-fund and may cough up some more cash tomorrow, so I don't think failing to move will be a big deal. I will probably initiate an IFT to the S-fund in the morning.

Overall, I expect tomorrow will be relatively sideway but the end of the day should give us a clue about where things will go on Tuesday (or Wednesday depending on the funeral). Did they make that decision?

 

[Wheels]

24.1% is what you need to double your NET money every four years assuming a 3% inflation rate. You are correct 24% will double your ACTUAL money every three years.

Both equations assumes no continuing contributions so you should need a bit less to double in 4 years.

 

[Griffin]

Many moons ago I mentioned that I had two basic goals for my account. The first was to meet or beat the best performing fund. I did not quite achieve that since I ended the year 2.46% behind the I-fund. I chalk a lot of that up to July, when the I-fund had a strong run and I sat in the C-fund because I did not have access to television/internet for a month. My second criteria was to beat a 50S/50I split which I did by 3.04%. The first criteria is a goal and missing that goal by less then 3.0% I consider to be acceptable. If you followed the study Desperado and I discussed, you will see my logic there.

Before I started timing, I had my account on a 50S/50I autopilot, so to beat that by 3.0% is fantastic. At the rate I am going, an extra 3.0% for another 21 years will yield at least an extra million. Given the time I spend managing my account (half-hour to an hour everyday) that comes out to over $100.00 an hour. That's sweat equity I can live with.

I am calling this year a success and will continue to time.

I did not move to the S-fund today. I think we will see serious weakening of the dollar in the next week.

 

[Griffin]

I am still 100% in the I-fund from last year but this fits my strategy for today. I am going to modify my strategy this year and go to a more long term multi-fund approach. The basic goal is to rely less on the G and try to capture the better of the S&I by weighting them according to the likely direction of the dollar index. I believe Greenspan's opinion of the dollar - continued weakening, so I expect to concentrate heavily in the I most of the year.

The overall strategy basically consists of weighting between the S&I during periods of likely upward movement with a shifting of some assets to the C or F-funds when the market gets to the top of it's channel. I am going to reserve movement's to the G-fund for when I think a serious correction or pullback is going to occur (which I see potential in the very near future - within weeks). This strategy makes sense for a strong bull year, however, I always reserve the right to change my strategy if the year changes.

I see the dollar sliding in the next couple of days and I am waiting for the Nikkei and Yen to get in on the start of the year action. So I will hold this for another day (at least) then move some of my chips over to the S-Fund.

 

[Griffin]

I am 100% in the I, and waiting for yesterday's I-fund debacle to get straghtened out.

The yen is holding it's ground while the pound and euro are losing to the dollar. I expect the Yen to weaken later today or tomorrow, so I want to shift some, if not all, funds out of the I-fund. I believe the dollar index will get to about 95.0 before it makes it's next reversal down.

I do not see any reason to expect anything other then an absolute pounding on the I fund tomorrow. The S-fund is looking very attractive, I may have to forgo my caution with the I fund debacle and move.

 

[Griffin]

Moved the whole enchilada into the S-fund. It turns out not splitting my money is a harder habit to break then I anticipated....oh well, at least I was able to resist going to the G.

We have had a lot of sideways action in the past couple of trading weeks and we are due for another multi-day rally. I recognize we may have to give up a little more to get that started, but that could all happen intraday.

 

[Griffin]

From Jobs Report

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

"Nonfarm employment increased by 167,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job gains occurred in several service-providing industries, including professional and business services, health care, and food services. Average hourly earnings rose by 8 cents, or 0.5 percent, in December."

This should turn this train around just in time. I'm looking for a nice rally since we are riding low in the channels

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