Griffin Account Talk

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Looks like we made a pretty good move going 100% into I yesterday as I is setting up to be an OUTSTANDING day today. Now just got to figure out the right time to exit. Im leaning towards getting out of I today, but not certain yet as the markets havent opened. :) Any thoughts on how you are going to play it Griffin?
 
ChemEng said:
Looks like we made a pretty good move going 100% into I yesterday as I is setting up to be an OUTSTANDING day today. Now just got to figure out the right time to exit. Im leaning towards getting out of I today, but not certain yet as the markets havent opened. :) Any thoughts on how you are going to play it Griffin?
Click to expand...

More then likely, yesterday's 1% FV will get removed from today's gains, so let's say the EAFE ends up with 1.5% gain for the day....we will only see about 0.5% of it in the I-fund. If they don't correct today, they will definitely do it by tomorrow. They only way I see them NOT correcting tonight, is if the US market continues to rally through the last half of the trading day. Of course if that happens, then the OSMs will likely follow suit again tomorrow. There is room for both the FTSE and Nikkei 300 to do this if they pattern off of the S&P500.

As much as we all would love to pull off a super slick FV dodge and slip into the S for tomorrow, the chances of not getting hit by the FV and the DWCP continuing to rally significantly for a third day in a row (assuming today is another big rally) are very slim. What would probably happen is you would get hit by the FV tonight, pick up .5% (guesstimate) return and walk into the S as it bounces off the top of it's channel.

What I do see as a better strategy is to sit tight in the I and suck up the FV. Lately the OSMs have been reacting to the US market (some will tell you that is always the case, but I believe that the internationals do go through periods were they are leading the US market). So once we hit the top, switch into the Domestic market and try to catch the international delay on the next hike. Think of this strategy like having been in the S yesterday and switching to the I tonight. The goal is to get ahead of the next Domestic rally.

Anyway you decide to play it, stay in stocks until this sucker starts to implode. Don't try to incorporate capital preservation. In hindsight, this should have been the strategy through all of September which is the same conclusion I came to in April about the first half of the year. I've been kicking my own butt for not following that lesson learned. I even mentioned this in several other comments in the past month, but I got cocky after pulling a 5+% return in August.
 
You sound like me. heehee.

I am struggling with the same dilemma on the FV. I am leaning toward pulling 50% out today and trying to fudge the FV. My original entry point was not perfect but better than I originally thought.

My 50% play I may implement more permanently into my overall strategy. Half to play the long term trend and the other half to play the peaks, valleys, and FV fudges.

My big problem today is I will be out of the building until after the deadline so I will not have the advantage of see the markets and making a snap decision. That sucks!:notrust:

Griffin said:
Anyway you decide to play it, stay in stocks until this sucker starts to implode. Don't try to incorporate capital preservation. In hindsight, this should have been the strategy through all of September which is the same conclusion I came to in April about the first half of the year. I've been kicking my own butt for not following that lesson learned. I even mentioned this in several other comments in the past month, but I got cocky after pulling a 5+% return in August.
Click to expand...
 
Griffin said:
Dave - thank you.

FS - If we get stripped of the gains through FV tonight, I may hang out in the I through Monday. As you mentioned earlier - the foreign markets are riding low in their channels - I really do not see a catastrophe developing here.

This is totally a gut feeling and has no basis in reality but....my crusty balls tell me - the CPI data is going to come out tomorrow and folks are going to realize we are NOT headed for a recession, then the Fed is going to throw us a rate hike, and folks are going to realize that the economy is still trucking along, too fast. I don't want to get all Birchtree here, but in my gut, I feel we are headed for a rally that leaves us a solid 2-3% over May's highs - despite the common logic you would hold for the CPI and the Fed.
Click to expand...

Great call Griffin.
 
All (and most recently: Tom and vectorman) - thanks for the positive comments and feedback. It's one thing to do the analysis, but it's hard to put it into words (and i'm not always good at it) but the feedback keeps me from feeling like I'm wasting my time. Thanks.
 
I am trying to expand my techno geek skills by actually putting a picture in here. If you see a laughing elephant, don't be surprised, it's only a test :D

 
biglaugh.jpg


Now I am dangerous......thank you Grandma!
 
Hey, Griffin, he is beautiful!
Is he for real ?? :)
...think he wants to go for a run...??
jumpingmouse.gif



(hey Board - I had to have something to do while I waste away in G.....)
 
Last edited:
Griffin,

Just wanted to pass along a thank-you as a new member but long time watcher for the information that you post. I am attempting to educate myself on the markets and trends that this information might (or might not) bear on my TSP account. It is obvious that you and many others make an earnest attempt to gauge market conditions and post your thoughts on what they mean: it is a real source of information to all of us on this site.

Thanks again.

BigJohn
 
Deja vu?....The agent's must be tinkering with the matrix :D

Just kidding, welcome aboard BigJohn.....Thanks for the thumbs up.

BigJohn said:
Griffin,

Just wanted to pass along a thank-you as a new member but long time watcher for the information that you post. I am attempting to educate myself on the markets and trends that this information might (or might not) bear on my TSP account. It is obvious that you and many others make an earnest attempt to gauge market conditions and post your thoughts on what they mean: it is a real source of information to all of us on this site.

Thanks again.

BigJohn
Click to expand...
 
It looks like there may be some juice left in the OSM for us today after all! Although, theres not quite the historical rally on C and S happening right now that I would expect. Im thinking about moving into G from this position.
 
ChemEng said:
It looks like there may be some juice left in the OSM for us today after all! Although, theres not quite the historical rally on C and S happening right now that I would expect. Im thinking about moving into G from this position.
Click to expand...

I am definitely happy with the direction the Nikkei took today. But I am a bit disappointed in the Eurozones lack of follow through. With the OSMs flirting with support, the potential for some significant positive action is out there. Today's dollar index move is very noteworthy. Do you chalk it up to light holiday volume or are we seeing a reversal of the more recent positive trend? If you do chalk it up to light volume...Friday will be another light volume day.

Seasonality has once again bucked the trend by being flat. The upside is that the S&P has managed to stay above 1400. A few days ago, I mentioned that from a 4 year perspective, I saw 1400 as the first step to another leg up. Overall, I am very bullish about the next 4-5 weeks, but I don't expect it to go straight up, so there is a possiblity of making some good timing moves. But I want to see something a little more concrete then seasonality to hang my hat on. I'm only going to time if I see a very real possibility of gain.

My strategy is to ride the internationals through the end of this week (still waiting on the EZ - hopefully tomorrow) and probably make the switch to the S or C on Friday. Whatever action we see out of the US market on Friday, I expect to see the opposite early next week.
 
Griffin said:
I am definitely happy with the direction the Nikkei took today. But I am a bit disappointed in the Eurozones lack of follow through. With the OSMs flirting with support, the potential for some significant positive action is out there.
Click to expand...

What does OSM stand for? (Thanks in advance.)
 
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