Griffin Account Talk

[Griffin]

Back to making money - all in the I-fund, this plane is set to autopilot.

 

[Griffin]

Tom's analysis of the US Dollar index is fairly compelling. I am going to stick to my plan with the I-Fund, but if the reverse head and shoulders holds I will dump to the S-Fund.

Tom, keep us informed.

 

[Griffin]

I ended up punching to the G from the I. This was based in a large part on a conviction that if the market seemed ready to breakdown from the 6 month trading channel, I would get out. I would really like to see some strength in the Japanesse market before buying back in, but I may jump back in very soon, depending on the dollar I may go domestic.

 

[Griffin]

I ended up punching to the G from the I. This was based in a large part on a conviction that if the market seemed ready to breakdown from the 6 month trading channel, I would get out. I would really like to see some strength in the Japanesse market before buying back in, but I may jump back in very soon, depending on the dollar I may go domestic.

Did not make the deadline for the IFT, cancelled this transfer altogether.

 

[FundSurfer]

Have to admit it was a tough call for me as well at the deadline. In the end I decided to give it another day. The dollar index looked like dollar was being sold. Looks like we may be rewarded tommorrow. If this bounce continues your missing the deadline will have been lucky.

 

[Griffin]

Yeah, I guess I got a little of that cheapshot luck after all. With that said, we will get clobbered tomorrow

 

[Fivetears]

Fivetears,

Welcome back. Are you going to reclaim your title as the poster child for the I-Fund?

That was good! LMAO
Just about ready.

 

[Fivetears]

That was good! LMAO
Just about ready.

On second thought...

 

[Griffin]

On second thought...

Yeah, I'm kind of feeling the same way. It was inevitable that the I-fund would eventually puke - but I was hoping that I could capitalize on another month or two of it running amuck. I am no longer bullish on the I-fund for the short, but I still like it for the long run.

I'm taking a lesson from my fraternity days. We used to inaugerate our new brethren with a case race....teams of two to finish off a case of ponies. Typically the drinking lasted about a half an hour. The puking lasted another half an hour, a few hours to recover....and since we did this in the afternoon, we had a party later that night.

Still waiting for the puking to finish...a couple weeks of rest and hopefully the party will start.

 

[Fivetears]

Yeah, I'm kind of feeling the same way. It was inevitable that the I-fund would eventually puke - but I was hoping that I could capitalize on another month or two of it running amuck. I am no longer bullish on the I-fund for the short, but I still like it for the long run.

I'm taking a lesson from my fraternity days. We used to inaugerate our new brethren with a case race....teams of two to finish off a case of ponies. Typically the drinking lasted about a half an hour. The puking lasted another half an hour, a few hours to recover....and since we did this in the afternoon, we had a party later that night.

Still waiting for the puking to finish...a couple weeks of rest and hopefully the party will start.

I read earlier this year (late last year) the I was slated to spin an 18% for 2006; ante untouched end-to-end. There's still nearly eight months left to pan this out of the river.

 

[Griffin]

I read earlier this year (late last year) the I was slated to spin an 18% for 2006; ante untouched end-to-end. There's still nearly eight months left to pan this out of the river.

Absolutely, I would love to pull over 18% for the year.

My overall strategy is to meet or beat the best performing fund each year. This would have yielded an annual average of 19% over the last ten years. I honestly don't expect to meet this. I would be thrilled to pull 13-14%.

Hell, 20 year's from now, that just might give me a shot at J-Lo (Sloppy....um..17th's....but who's counting?)

 

[Griffin]

It has been about 7 months since these support levels have been tested. That's a relatively long time. Historically, they were being tested about every 5 months with step over step action. The tight channel of these past months leads me to believe that there is not a whole lot of strength left in them. Who in their right mind would have stops in place at these levels given the action of the last 7 months? All buying activity will be coming from the old fashioned way. That just does not generate the surge of buying activity around whole numbers at easily chartable levels to stop this ship from sinking. It may take some real sweet news to turn things around

I suspect we still have approximately 3% worth of losses to go. Then we will have to ask the $100,000.00 dollar question: Is this the start of a market reversal? I'm willing to miss a % or two, to find out the safe way.

Currently, looking for a successful retest of the lows

 

[Fivetears]

I believe you have made a very wise decision, Griffin. If this uncharted set of river rapids leads us all to the USD waterfall many have spoke of coming... at least we'll have the $6.00 it's gonna take to buy some sliced American cheese.

 

[Griffin]

I believe you have made a very wise decision, Griffin. If this uncharted set of river rapids leads us all to the USD waterfall many have spoke of coming... at least we'll have the $6.00 it's gonna take to buy some sliced American cheese.

Fivetears, don't take it too seriously, in the end it's all monopoly money. Be proud of the fact that you are a member of the most resiliant, most adaptable people on this planet.

I may be fooling myself when I say this, but I have FAITH that ultimately it will all work out in the end, because were Americans and we always find a way.

Keep your chin up and remember that it is all just a big game and he who dies with the most toys wins

 

[Griffin]

Back on the 16th in the "playing the I fund" thread, I mentioned that I think the market may break away from the patterns of the past 2-3 years. If that does not happen and the pattern continues, it is reasonable to expect this rally to fail shortly and drop some more, in which case I am still open to the possiblity that it will drop out of that channel. However, if this is a new bottom and it is retested a few days from now, I will probably move back into stocks. If the market continues to rally from here, I am not going to let the market get to far away from me before I jump in. This is a lot of if - then's and really doesn't say much - other then I am waiting on a clearer picture before I pull the trigger.

Icharo posted a good article talking about strengthing in the asian currencies and I don't want to forget Tom's analysis about the reverse head and shoulders pattern developing in the dollar index. So a rat race may begin among the major currencies. Such a development will make it difficult to determine the smarter play between the S and I funds. I am considering breaking from my traditional pattern of single fund to a 50/50 split until a clear winner presents itself.

 

[Griffin]

Depending on what index your looking at, the market is bumping it's head on Thursdays (and Friday's - for the internationals) resistance level. I would like to see this resistance turn support before moving in.

 

[Griffin]

Folks,

I have been war-gaming my strategy for coming out of this pullback. The big question on my mind was which fund was most likely to give up the best return. What I did was take the last three major pullbacks (6 August 04, 15 April 05, and 14 October 05) as my starting point and graphed the return to date of the funds following these pullbacks.

An amazingly obvious pattern presented itself. The S fund came out the gate as the top performer, followed by the C fund with the I fund coming in last (pitifully last in two out of three cases). I have attached an excel spreadsheet that shows these graphs. Keep in mind the Y axis is return to date, not fund price.

Further analysis revealed another striking pattern. While the S-fund had the highest growth rate initially, after about a month to two months, as the S-fund was leveling off going into the first correction, the I-fund then took off coming out of that correction.

So, here’s my strategy. Come out the gate 100% S, when it gets toppy, IFT to the G and wait for the correction to bottom, then IFT into the I-fund. This strategy would have yielded approximately 16 to 18% within the following 3 months in all three instances, if played perfectly.

One note: you will probably have to download the spreadsheet for the tabs to work properly.

 

[FundSurfer]

I would have figured that I-fund would have outperformed after the last down turn. Interesting.

 

[Wheels]

So, here’s my strategy. Come out the gate 100% S

When are you planning to make this initial move.

Dave
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[Griffin]

Dave,

I was waiting for the S&P to drop below 1250 and the DWCP to approach 555. But, I think this may be as low as it is going to go. If these indexs bounce off the support levels from Monday, I'm in. Possibly today.