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Griffin Account Talk
- Thread starter Griffin
- Start date
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Ayla,
You're thinking too hard about this. I was refering to the day to day market action. I guess this might haelp you see it better: Thanks to Ebbnflow: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?s=^N300,^FTSE,^FCHI,^SSMI,^GDAXI,^AORD,^MIBTEL,^IBEX,^AEX,^OMXSPI,^HSI,^BFX,^FIDOW,^IEDOW,^STI,OMXC20.CO,^OSEAX,^GRDOW,^ATX,^PTDOW,^NZ50
ayla
Member
Already got that. I guess I like to make things complicated. That seems to be the only way I understand (in the details.)
I was 50 G and 50 F for today. I am 100 G for tomorrow. F fund loss for the day shouldn't be more than a couple of cents.
I fear your "delay" theory is going to get ruined by Barclays today. They are a little overdue for a fair valuation adjustment and today's action sets up perfectly for one. The EAFE only lost 6 cents today but I wouldn't be surprised to see the I fund down over 20 cents. Cross your fingers and hope for something a little milder.
Griffin
Well-known member
At this point, I am going to assume the worst and expect the $.22 that 350z mentioned. Since i didn't hit the powerball yesterday, I'll have to settle for that new Bowling for Soup CD to keep the laughs going.
Speaking of the powerball, Show-me is curiously quiet today. hmmmm
Griffin,
Good morning to all! Let me try to put this in perspective. No trading system or program is perfect. If it were, we would be getting 100% plus returns a year. I read most of you all the time, and I believe the leaders on this board are very smart. One way or another most are doing well. I too took a hard hit yesterday in the I fund and transferred to the G fund effective COB yesterday.
I have to acknowledge that your explicit explanation regarding the I fund pattern is very helpful and that it helped me to cut the losses in the stock funds. Percentage wise, the I fund lost less money than the other stock funds yesterday. We'll see what happens going forward, but don't give up! We still have the rest of the year to do well. This goes for all of the leaders, fellow members, and to Ebbnflow as well. Best wishes!
Good morning to all! Let me try to put this in perspective. No trading system or program is perfect. If it were, we would be getting 100% plus returns a year. I read most of you all the time, and I believe the leaders on this board are very smart. One way or another most are doing well. I too took a hard hit yesterday in the I fund and transferred to the G fund effective COB yesterday.
I have to acknowledge that your explicit explanation regarding the I fund pattern is very helpful and that it helped me to cut the losses in the stock funds. Percentage wise, the I fund lost less money than the other stock funds yesterday. We'll see what happens going forward, but don't give up! We still have the rest of the year to do well. This goes for all of the leaders, fellow members, and to Ebbnflow as well. Best wishes!
Griffin
Well-known member
Sponsor - good morning to you
The last couple of days have produced a top pipe. A pipe is essentially a strong move in one direction followed by an reversal the next day. Pipes are usually associated as with a reversal pattern, so a top pipe is a bearish indicator. To see what a pipe looks like, you only need to go back to October 26-27th.
View attachment 1310
As you can see the pipe was followed by some sideways action before it eventually moved to lower lows. I'm not suprised that things are not looking all that bad this morning given yesterday's sell off. This is very reminiscent of that move. I never tell people what to do, however, based on what I've shown you, it is reasonable to consider holding a CP position for a few days until a better buying opportunity presents itself.
The last couple of days have produced a top pipe. A pipe is essentially a strong move in one direction followed by an reversal the next day. Pipes are usually associated as with a reversal pattern, so a top pipe is a bearish indicator. To see what a pipe looks like, you only need to go back to October 26-27th.
View attachment 1310
As you can see the pipe was followed by some sideways action before it eventually moved to lower lows. I'm not suprised that things are not looking all that bad this morning given yesterday's sell off. This is very reminiscent of that move. I never tell people what to do, however, based on what I've shown you, it is reasonable to consider holding a CP position for a few days until a better buying opportunity presents itself.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
I just learned something new today, "top pipe". Griffin, you're TA is top notch. Thank you very much.
Griffin
Well-known member
I had to put this up.
The dollar index is a critical juncture where lines of support and resistance may reverse.
View attachment 1312
The dollar index is a critical juncture where lines of support and resistance may reverse.
View attachment 1312
Griffin,
I hadn't been able tostudy this last post. However, we could see a very high USD going forward if the FED keeps raising rates due to inflation expectations. I heard/read somewhere this morning that econ. numbers today had significantly reduced the expectations of the FED lowering rates. The raising of rates would strengthen the USD and could have the USD breaking the upward resistance depicted in the chart.
I hadn't been able tostudy this last post. However, we could see a very high USD going forward if the FED keeps raising rates due to inflation expectations. I heard/read somewhere this morning that econ. numbers today had significantly reduced the expectations of the FED lowering rates. The raising of rates would strengthen the USD and could have the USD breaking the upward resistance depicted in the chart.
Griffin
Well-known member
I was suprised by yesterday's Fed comments (I expected them to be realtively hawkish) and the subsequent rally. I am currently sitting in the C-fund but I intend to take some profits unless something significant happens.
Most of the index funds that we typically monitor are now sitting at the top of there channels, with one exception: The DWCP (S-Fund). The S-fund had an explosive run earlier in this rally following a rather dismal lack of recovery after May's pullback. The fund now appears to be on another tear and has broken it's previous multi year high. This suggests that this market may be ready for a move into uncharted territory as speculators move their liquidity into the more speculative small and mid caps. Yesterday and internationally today, most indexes edged up to their highs and gently backed off a bit. They are now poised for a push higher.
In my mind, this makes the DWCP ($EMW if you use stockcharts.com) the fund to watch today to see how it compares to the S&P 500. What I don't want to see is a bunch of profit taking, putting that aside for the moment, I see two scenarios. Scenario one: The DWCP holds at or near this new high while the other indexs play catch up and push into new highs or (scenario two) the DWCP continues to climb at or near the rate of our other indexs. I interpret the first as a top forming, whereas the second could lead to another day of spectacular growth in the OSM's make new highs of their own as they play catch up to US markets new highs.
So, scenario one - I go into capital preservation (CP) mode or, scenario two - I move to the I-fund. If we see profit taking I will (once again) give up my gains and go into CP mode. Even if scenario two pans out, I will more then likely move into a CP position tomorrow.
Final note: I see the current situation as another example of strong evidence that suggest it is generally better to position oneself in the domestic stocks at the outset of arally and make the switch to internationals mid stream.
Most of the index funds that we typically monitor are now sitting at the top of there channels, with one exception: The DWCP (S-Fund). The S-fund had an explosive run earlier in this rally following a rather dismal lack of recovery after May's pullback. The fund now appears to be on another tear and has broken it's previous multi year high. This suggests that this market may be ready for a move into uncharted territory as speculators move their liquidity into the more speculative small and mid caps. Yesterday and internationally today, most indexes edged up to their highs and gently backed off a bit. They are now poised for a push higher.
In my mind, this makes the DWCP ($EMW if you use stockcharts.com) the fund to watch today to see how it compares to the S&P 500. What I don't want to see is a bunch of profit taking, putting that aside for the moment, I see two scenarios. Scenario one: The DWCP holds at or near this new high while the other indexs play catch up and push into new highs or (scenario two) the DWCP continues to climb at or near the rate of our other indexs. I interpret the first as a top forming, whereas the second could lead to another day of spectacular growth in the OSM's make new highs of their own as they play catch up to US markets new highs.
So, scenario one - I go into capital preservation (CP) mode or, scenario two - I move to the I-fund. If we see profit taking I will (once again) give up my gains and go into CP mode. Even if scenario two pans out, I will more then likely move into a CP position tomorrow.
Final note: I see the current situation as another example of strong evidence that suggest it is generally better to position oneself in the domestic stocks at the outset of arally and make the switch to internationals mid stream.
Griffin
Well-known member
It seems that yesterday's momentum is going to peak today, hopefully without triggering a sell off. I am going into CP mode (the G-fund) since trader Fred is still giving us a sell signal.
Since it's looking like the OSMs are going to capture the bulk of the market action today, I am ruling out the move to the I-fund.
Since it's looking like the OSMs are going to capture the bulk of the market action today, I am ruling out the move to the I-fund.
Griffin
Well-known member
The jobs report was weak, initially the market racted with a bit of selling but the OSM's are now reacting positively because they see it as a reason for the US not to raise rates.
OSM Reaction to Labor Report
The actual labor report summary used the word "unchanged" six times - basically things are holding steady in the labor market with a weak showing of only 111K new jobs. Given that we are coming right off the back of FOMC policy statement, I don't see the US market reacting with equal enthusiasm as our OSM counterparts. They have the added incentive that a weak US jobs report is indictive that they can be more competitive. However, the pre-market is reacting favorable to the news.
US Pre-Market Reaction to Labor Report
This is the kind of circular logic that can get one punished. I expect reality to kick in quickly and if Tech earnings gets slapped, trigger some profit taking.
OSM Reaction to Labor Report
The actual labor report summary used the word "unchanged" six times - basically things are holding steady in the labor market with a weak showing of only 111K new jobs. Given that we are coming right off the back of FOMC policy statement, I don't see the US market reacting with equal enthusiasm as our OSM counterparts. They have the added incentive that a weak US jobs report is indictive that they can be more competitive. However, the pre-market is reacting favorable to the news.
US Pre-Market Reaction to Labor Report
This is the kind of circular logic that can get one punished. I expect reality to kick in quickly and if Tech earnings gets slapped, trigger some profit taking.
vectorman
Active member
The VIX is also flirting with its lows, no fear in buyers, party time, less caution.:suspicious:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Griffin
Well-known member
This is when discipline has to override emotion. After yesterday's mass migration to the lilly pad, you have to avoid the desire to "BELIEVE" that it is going to sell off :nuts: so you don't panic when it doesn't.
tick....tick.....tick.....give it time.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Hey sports fans how about this for predicting the market?
3:00 pm : Heading into the final hour of trading, there's about as much conviction on the part of investors as there is certainty about which team is going to win the big game this Sunday. For subscribers of theories about the stock market, one of the more interesting ones is the Super Bowl stock indicator.
Albeit purely coincidental, it has accurately predicted a bull market 80% of the time, at least when a team from the NFC emerges victorious. If an AFC team wins, the theory is right about half the time, so that's a push. However, this year presents an interesting win-win situation for the bulls since the theory also cites a victory by an original, pre-1970 merger NFL team (i.e. the Colts) as bullish for stocks. Go Bears!DJ30 -22.43 NASDAQ +3.72 SP500 +1.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1388/1592/1.45 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1398/1826/1.02 bln
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/overview:nuts:
3:00 pm : Heading into the final hour of trading, there's about as much conviction on the part of investors as there is certainty about which team is going to win the big game this Sunday. For subscribers of theories about the stock market, one of the more interesting ones is the Super Bowl stock indicator.
Albeit purely coincidental, it has accurately predicted a bull market 80% of the time, at least when a team from the NFC emerges victorious. If an AFC team wins, the theory is right about half the time, so that's a push. However, this year presents an interesting win-win situation for the bulls since the theory also cites a victory by an original, pre-1970 merger NFL team (i.e. the Colts) as bullish for stocks. Go Bears!DJ30 -22.43 NASDAQ +3.72 SP500 +1.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1388/1592/1.45 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1398/1826/1.02 bln
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/overview:nuts:
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