Griffin Account Talk

[weatherweenie]

Bowling For Soup - "1985"

Got it, thanks, I have to pick that CD up tonight. That song is hysterical.

Feel free to delete this, but here are the lyrics:


Woohoohoo
Woohoohoo

Debbie just hit the wall
she never had it all
one Prozac a day
husbands a CPA
her dreams went out the door
when she turned twenty four
only been with one man
what happen to her plan?

She was gonna be an actress
she was gonna be a star
she was gonna shake her ass
on the hood of white snake’s car
her yellow SUV is now the enemy
looks at her average life
and nothing has been alright since

Bruce Springsteen, Madonna
way before Nirvana
there was U2 and Blondie
and music still on MTV
her two kids in high school
they tell her that she’s uncool
cuz she's still preoccupied
with 19, 19, 1985

Woohoohoo
(1985)
Woohoohoo

She’s seen all the classics
she knows every line
Breakfast Club, Pretty in Pink
even Saint Elmo’s Fire
she rocked out to wham
not a big Limp Bizkit fan
thought she’d get a hand
on a member of Duran Duran

Where’s the mini-skirt made of snake skin
and who’s the other guy that's singing in Van Halen
when did reality become T.V.
what ever happen to sitcoms, game shows
(on the radio was)

Bruce Springsteen, Madonna
way before Nirvana
there was U2 and Blondie
and music still on MTV
her two kids in high school
they tell her that she’s uncool
cuz she's still preoccupied
with 19, 19, 1985

Woohoohoo

She hates time make it stop
when did Motley Crue become classic rock?
And when did Ozzy become an actor?
Please make this stop, stop
Stop!
And bring back

Bruce Springsteen, Madonna
way before Nirvana
there was U2 and Blondie
and music still on MTV
her two kids in high school
they tell her that she’s uncool
cuz she's still preoccupied
with 1985

Woohoohoo

Bruce Springsteen, Madonna
way before Nirvana
there was U2 and Blondie
and music still on MTV (woohoohoo)
her two kids in high school
they tell her that she’s uncool
cuz she's still preoccupied
with 19, 19, 1985

 

[Griffin]

Once upon a time, I thought I had the dollar figured out, now I'm corn-fused. Anyway, I'm sticking out the I-fund for another day, hoping we get a retest of the 84.5 on the dollar index. Since the OSMs are making 52 week highs, that should generate enough optimism to hold off a sell-off for a little while. Sticking it out doesn't feel like riding the top yet, but that could change in an hour...oh well.

I'm feeling pressure to move back to the F-fund, but I just can't reconcile the green in the AGG with the Green in the TNX. Probably tomorrow.

Back to business and business is good! - The move to the I-fund looks like it is going to pay well. I mentioned the Pennant formation, a breakout and playing the whip, as a possiblity. I am loosely rolling with this theory - If the S&P500 struggles with 1430 mark then I will definitely punch out today, however if it looks like it will break the ceiling of last Wednesday's highs, I may stay in. Since "the matrix" does not have us buying again, I remain in a low aggressive mode and do not intend to ride the top.

 

[Pilgrim]

How would you guess the odds that this blip up in the dollar will reverse this afternoon, setting up a +FV for today?

 

[Griffin]

Pilgrim,

I went through a phase where I thought I could answer that question accurately, so If your looking for my opinion, with the expectation it will do the opposite, ok....here it is:

A few days ago, ATCJeff proposed the dollar index at something around 87.0. Initially, I thought he was being a little over cautious, but then it looked like it was going to stay on top of 85.0 and I started to suspect he was on the right track. So I got bullish on the dollar (bearish on the I).
I still only suspected it to go to 86.0, but then it dropped below 85.0. So I chalked it up to overseas selling pressure on US bonds and financial reserves, which I still see as the driving force. I see it (reverse dead cat bounce) bouncing off of 85.0 and making a lower low - starting very shortly.

With that said, it's probably off to 87.0 :nuts:

How would you guess the odds that this blip up in the dollar will reverse this afternoon, setting up a +FV for today?

 

[Wheels]

Guess you and I are not on the same page.

Now that I've said it, you should have a banner day tomorrow.

Back to business and business is good! - The move to the I-fund looks like it is going to pay well.

Griff, Even as I tank my own account, my running mouth seems to be doing your account a world of good.

 

[Griffin]

Griff, Even as I tank my own account, my running mouth seems to be doing your account a world of good.

LOL,

There is a historical record to support that claim.....why do you think I wanted you to come back to the board so badly!

Just kidding.

FS finally checked back in, maybe we will be able to get some synergy going.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Pilgrim,

I went through a phase where I thought I could answer that question accurately, so If your looking for my opinion, with the expectation it will do the opposite, ok....here it is:

A few days ago, ATCJeff proposed the dollar index at something around 87.0. Initially, I thought he was being a little over cautious, but then it looked like it was going to stay on top of 85.0 and I started to suspect he was on the right track. So I got bullish on the dollar (bearish on the I).
I still only suspected it to go to 86.0, but then it dropped below 85.0. So I chalked it up to overseas selling pressure on US bonds and financial reserves, which I still see as the driving force. I see it (reverse dead cat bounce) bouncing off of 85.0 and making a lower low - starting very shortly.

With that said, it's probably off to 87.0 :nuts:

dollar still looks weaker, today's technicals very similar to 10/18/06

 

[sugarandspice]

FS finally checked back in, maybe we will be able to get some synergy going.

It seemed different around here without him. An emptiness with the feeling of some impending doom that I wasn't privy to.

 

[sugarandspice]

It seemed different around here without him. An emptiness with the feeling of some impending doom that I wasn't privy to.

Sugar, that emptiness feeling is something your stomach has never experienced. Now go pollute your own thread.......Sorry Griffin.

 

[ATCJeff]

Pilgrim,

I went through a phase where I thought I could answer that question accurately, so If your looking for my opinion, with the expectation it will do the opposite, ok....here it is:

A few days ago, ATCJeff proposed the dollar index at something around 87.0. Initially, I thought he was being a little over cautious, but then it looked like it was going to stay on top of 85.0 and I started to suspect he was on the right track. So I got bullish on the dollar (bearish on the I).
I still only suspected it to go to 86.0, but then it dropped below 85.0. So I chalked it up to overseas selling pressure on US bonds and financial reserves, which I still see as the driving force. I see it (reverse dead cat bounce) bouncing off of 85.0 and making a lower low - starting very shortly.

With that said, it's probably off to 87.0 :nuts:

At the time I thought the dollar would go through the 85ish support up to the next support level at 87. At the time I consider 87 to be a support wall that the dollar would not break above. I would be bearish at that level.

Now after the dollar moving sideways for a few days (before yesterdays movement) I am now thinking the 85ish is the upper support level. So once again I'm bearish on the dollar.

I hope we are both wrong on the movement up to 87. I'm 100% I and plan on staying here for a while. I only see the dollar moving lower from this point on.

 

[Griffin]

Sugar, that emptiness feeling is something your stomach has never experienced. Now go pollute your own thread.......Sorry Griffin.

I always appreciate your input, the humor of this board keeps me going through the day. :laugh:

 

[Griffin]

We are all entitled to change our minds. Based on your moves, I figured as much. It's good to know that I am not the only person who thinks 85.0 will hold support. I'm still in the I, only because I expect weakness in the dollar.

At the time I thought the dollar would go through the 85ish support up to the next support level at 87. At the time I consider 87 to be a support wall that the dollar would not break above. I would be bearish at that level.

Now after the dollar moving sideways for a few days (before yesterdays movement) I am now thinking the 85ish is the upper support level. So once again I'm bearish on the dollar.

I hope we are both wrong on the movement up to 87. I'm 100% I and plan on staying here for a while. I only see the dollar moving lower from this point on.

 

[Griffin]

dollar still looks weaker, today's technicals very similar to 10/18/06

Yes sir,
View attachment 1306

 

[Wheels]

The dollar's move up to 85 had less to do with the dollar and more to do with the plummet of the yen. Even during that time, the dollar suffered some losses against the pound and the euro, but the yen lost ground something like 6 or 7 consecutive days. Much of the expectation that the dollar is going to be heading down, came from the idea that the Fed would be easing sometime in the near future. That idea is now in question, and the yen seems to have stabalized some, so I am expecting the dollar to not do much of anything in the near future. It'll probably waffle between 84 and 85. I am going to stay away from stocks for a while because I believe we are now severely overbought, but if I were to jump in, I would choose the I if the dollar index were approaching 84. If it's up around 85, I will choose the S or the C.

 

[Wheels]

BTW, feel free to use the above stance to get yourself firmly entrenched in stocks as I have been way off my game lately. I'm starting to wonder if the only thing that'll get stocks to come back down some, is Tom finally throwing in the towel and throwing everything in. Perhaps today's gains will throw sub model J into a buy a Tom will push all in. I'll be staying on the side for a few more days even if it does.

 

[Griffin]

We are all entitled to change our minds. Based on your moves, I figured as much. It's good to know that I am not the only person who thinks 85.0 will hold support. I'm still in the I, only because I expect weakness in the dollar.

Brain fart - I meant 85.0 would hold as resistance (I was distracted when I was writing that). I can see the dollar waffling. I really would like to see a big waffle down to 84.0 tomorrow.

Dave I think your dollar index strategy is backwards but I get the point. Hopefully your strategy works out perfectly for me.

 

[Wheels]

Brain fart - I meant 85.0 would hold as resistance (I was distracted when I was writing that). I can see the dollar waffling. I really would like to see a big waffle down to 84.0 tomorrow.

Dave I think your dollar index strategy is backwards but I get the point. Hopefully your strategy works out perfectly for me.

Double brain fart. Of course I meant that I would choose the I if the index were around 85, and choose something other than the I if it were around 84.

 

[Griffin]

Obviously the pennant concept got blown out of the water yesterday. Now waiting on some weakness in the dollar (or strength in the yen - if you read wheels comment above) to right yesterday's I-fund injustice .

I'm going to the charts...watch out. We tend to draw lines and look at the slopes of channels, that's easy on the eyes. The reality is the weekly stair step up movement we saw in the fall is actually rare, more commonly, the market moves sideways in a range for several weeks or a couple of months then makes a significant push (blue boxes). With the S&P, there is also a tendancy to look at the tops and bottoms and ignore the real trends that run through it (the difference between the green and the red channels shown on ths SPX).

When you look at the treal trends in the S&P, they very much mirror whats going on in the small and mid caps (DWCP: S-fund).

View attachment 1307

My point is that from this perspective, the market is not wildly over extended and it is reasonable to continue timing. We may have another month or two of sideways action and maybe even another couple of big pushes up, but were getting close to the point where catching some or all of that ride is irrelevant, the absolutely most critical thing is not to ride this to the bottom when the pullback comes.

Again - I'm on a low aggresive approach and will likely not ride what appears to be the formatin of a top.

 

[AIF]

I have questions about channels.
If I look at the S&P chart and draw channels starting three years ago the picture looks like this and I see the possibility of a correction down to come back into the channel.

If I look at the time frame of the last seven months I get channels that look like the picture below and see the possibility of an upward trend to come back into this set of channels.

1) Are my Channels correct?
2) What are the rules for determining the channels?

I think I understand the concept of timeframes but where does smart money go? The longer timeframe shows caution but the shorter timefame says to me hold.

Any help is appreciated.
AIF

 

[AIF]

Nice pictures! I saw them in my reply to thread box.