Griffin Account Talk

[Griffin]

Which means this resistance will most likely serve as support one day. When that day is, who knows. Could be later this year, or in a few years.

The concept behind a pennant, is that resistance (is futile ) will be broken - in this case with the expectation to the upside. I'm not putting much credibility in this at the moment.

Now that submodel-J has rolled over to a sell, I'm probably going to cash out of any rally fairly quickly. Three times I have been confident that we were at the pullback point. Between those missed calls and the failed cup and handle model over the summer, I am skeptical of any expectations. Basically, I am going to trust the model and be less aggressive and set some new stops.

 

[Griffin]

I feel like the yen's decline has been pretty much uninterupted and is way overdue for some strength against the dollar

Good call.

 

[Griffin]

Just moved to the I-fund, I see the dollar index bouncing off 84.5 for the rest of the day before continuing the trek to 84.0 tomorrow. Tomorrow may be to late to catch the lag, I expect to go defensive tomorrow.

I also like going into any rally in the domestics, because of the opportunity to catch some lagging action in the internationals on the top side.

 

[Wheels]

I feel like the yen's decline has been pretty much uninterupted and is way overdue for some strength against the dollar

Good call.

Yeah. Great call. Except I didn't heed it and I am not only out of the I fund but out of stocks altogether.

 

[Wheels]

Now that submodel-J has rolled over to a sell, I'm probably going to cash out of any rally fairly quickly.... ...Basically, I am going to trust the model and be less aggressive and set some new stops.

Just moved to the I-fund

Which is it?

 

[Wheels]

I also like going into any rally in the domestics, because of the opportunity to catch some lagging action in the internationals on the top side.

This was a "technique" that we used and discussed quite a bit way back in the very earliest days of this board. It has a little merit because Australia and Asia will often mimmick what we have done, but between the FV and the European overlap and the uncertainty of what wwill happen after noon we found that it "worked" pretty infrequently.

Now that I've said it, you should have a banner day tomorrow.

 

[Wheels]

Clearly the S fund is going to shoot right up to 2-3% today just to spite me. Seriously though, I wonder if a big up day will trigger one of TF's sub models right back into a buy.

 

[Griffin]

Which is it?

LOL -

Dave you've become my concious. Actually, before I posted that, I erased a paragraph which went into some nauseating detail about backing down on the aggressiveness and but not quite going into a defensive position.

I was in total Bull mode with yesterday's sell off until "the system" (should we start calling it "the matrix" ) went into sell mode. I'm not ready to give up on being a bull. This is what I was getting at 4 days ago:

Submodel J post

Basically that paragraph went something like this: Since abandoning my original plan for this year, I decided to go back to the old methodology but use "the matrix" to control my approach between a highly aggressive approach (hold stocks when the market is toppy and buy on the expectation of support) versus a low aggressive approach (sell the rally at the first sign of topping and wait for retests before buying bottoms). I base my decisions to move or stay on how aggressive I think I should be. This is basically a low, medium, high (and very high = buy and hold). Yesterday I was on high, now I'm on low and will remain so long enough to give our new model a fair shake at predicting the next pullback (two weeks or so). This is why I expect to sell tomorrow, but I wasn't about to give up on what looks to be a no-brainer (sugarandspice for CEO ) move.

 

[ayla]

LOL -
<..snip..>
Since abandoning my original plan for this year, I decided to go back to the old methodology but use "the matrix" to control my approach between a highly aggressive approach (hold stocks when the market is toppy and buy on the expectation of support) versus a low aggressive approach (sell the rally at the first sign of topping and wait for retests before buying bottoms). I base my decisions to move or stay on how aggressive I think I should be. This is basically a low, medium, high (and very high = buy and hold).

Thanks, Griffin, very much for your very articulate description of your "old methodology". The different categories give me a lot to think about. Always a good thing! Seems like I get in the trap of thinking I should always be at the same level of aggressiveness ... but when to change is the $64,000 question (Am I showing my age using $64,000? LOL)

 

[Griffin]

(Am I showing my age using $64,000? LOL)

Yeap,

Just because I rag on the Baby Boomers all the time, doesn't mean I don't like you guys....my parents were Boomers. I only wish you guys spent more of your money on "REAL" ticker symbols instead of THC and LSD in 60's. Think of all the money your generation would have!

Aggressiveness - basically I use my opinion to extrapolate what I think the trend line will be over the next week to determine how aggressive I should be. The steeper the more aggressive. Take the trend of the first half of CY06, that is the boarder line between medium and high, sideways or slightly negative is low.

 

[love-to-bike]

Yeap,

Just because I rag on the Baby Boomers all the time, doesn't mean I don't like you guys....my parents were Boomers. I only wish you guys spent more of your money on "REAL" ticker symbols instead of THC and LSD in 60's. Think of all the money your generation would have!

I have no problem remembering the $64,000 Question, its just the 60's and early 70's that are hazy.

 

[GGal]

"Just because I rag on the Baby Boomers all the time, doesn't mean I don't like you guys....my parents were Boomers. I only wish you guys spent more of your money on "REAL" ticker symbols instead of THC and LSD in 60's. Think of all the money your generation would have! "

Oh, but you just don't have a clue, how laid back and cool we were, and how much fun we had thumbing our noses at the establishment.....picture me, hip-hugger bell-bottom jeans, halter top, shaggy blonde hair, barefoot, laying on the grass in the park, taking hits with my buds.....no cares, no responsibility.....who would'a thought it.

GA

 

[pogo]

"Just because I rag on the Baby Boomers all the time, doesn't mean I don't like you guys....my parents were Boomers. I only wish you guys spent more of your money on "REAL" ticker symbols instead of THC and LSD in 60's. Think of all the money your generation would have! "

Oh, but you just don't have a clue, how laid back and cool we were, and how much fun we had thumbing our noses at the establishment.....picture me, hip-hugger bell-bottom jeans, halter top, shaggy blonde hair, barefoot, laying on the grass in the park, taking hits with my buds.....no cares, no responsibility.....who would'a thought it.

GA

just think--seven more years, if i can keep on hitting the market like i have been i can picture me in hip huggers (no halter top, my wife will not let me) shaggy blonde hair (i mean a couple of threads) laying on the beach, taking hits with my buds...no cares, no resposibility.....who would'a thought that i can end just like i started. america is good

 

[Birchtree]

What ever you do, don't tell'em about the sex. Especially if you were listening to Santana or Iron Butterfly.

 

[GGal]

What ever you do, don't tell'em about the sex. Especially if you were listening to Santana or Iron Butterfly.

Oh God, no....don't tell 'em 'bout the Love-Ins. They couldn't handle it.

GA

 

[ATCJeff]

la la la la la......me closing my ears......

 

[fabijo]

Woah, what's going on in this thread!? I better get out before the lava lamps blind me.

 

[Griffin]

Woah, what's going on in this thread!? I better get out before the lava lamps blind me.

LOL,

I think Geez-fest is over

Ayla, now you know why you were reluctant to show your age What's that Green Day song about the gen-x'r mom stuck in 1985?....boomer's are exactly the same way about the 60's...one mention and they get all stary eyed and goofy....like clockwork (most of my coworkers/friends are boomer's - it's a Pavlovian response). In all sincerity, I hope you all enjoyed the opportunity to reminisce and found a little serenity (not the kind that comes in a box).

Back to business and business is good! - The move to the I-fund looks like it is going to pay well. I mentioned the Pennant formation, a breakout and playing the whip, as a possiblity. I am loosely rolling with this theory - If the S&P500 struggles with 1430 mark then I will definitely punch out today, however if it looks like it will break the ceiling of last Wednesday's highs, I may stay in. Since "the matrix" does not have us buying again, I remain in a low aggressive mode and do not intend to ride the top.

 

[sugarandspice]

What's that Green Day song about the gen-x'r mom stuck in 1985?...

It's Bowling For Soup not Green Day.

 

[Griffin]

It's Bowling For Soup not Green Day.

Bowling For Soup - "1985"

Got it, thanks, I have to pick that CD up tonight. That song is hysterical.