Griffin Account Talk

[Griffin]

Ah but what lows? All the way back to August?

Good question.

Initially, I don't think so but as I said yesterday, I see a progressive slip over the course of the next several months.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=80304&postcount=66

 

[Griffin]

My two cents. Everyone is either in the market and debating to get out or their out and debating to get in. People are looking for a sign.

Here are intraday charts of the past 10 days, the resistance levels in red are that sign, if the market can get above them, great, you probably don't want to be sitting on the sidelines if that happens. On the other hand, there is the technical damage from those dramatic V's to consider. I especially don't like the fact that they form a low and a lower pattern.

View attachment 1452

If you remember what the intraday charts looked like back in May, it was more of the opposite, with some attempted rally spikes but mostly skipping along support. I prefer the look of these charts to those in May, but I'm not convinced.

I'm back in the G and staying put. Even if the market makes a big recovery, I highly doubt it will be back to business as usual, I expect we would get to revisit this dilemma again. I see the greater risk in being in, and if those resistance lines hold, more and more people will see it that way.

 

[Griffin]

Since the last post,

The DWCP has dropped to 635 and SPX to 1390, this is more in line with how the intraday charts looked in May with the funds skipping along support. Except in May we didn't have those support levels penetrated. In May the support levels held for a day or so, then they would get compromised once, recover and on the second or third penetration, the market would step down to the next level of support. Given that our current levels of support have already been penetrated once, I think it is unlikely they will withstand another serious blow (bad news story)

FYI, My personal take on "bad news stories" (and "good news stories") is that the market is constantly bombarded with both Bad and Good news. Whether it latches on to a particular story or not, is a function of the technical picture, this is why the Black whatever...days are usually preceded by a slumping or extremely overbought market and normally don't just come out of the blue. i.e., the market was looking for a reason to pullback and happened to find the juiciest piece of news available to do so. This is why the attempted Cheney assassination is not real news....don't you think everybody already knows the enemy is trying to assassinate our leadership? I think they used a completely unrelated attack and tried to create a spin that would question our ability to secure information. The point of the story, like all of these stories, is only loosely based on reality, but the stories provide convenient scapegoats for technical breakdowns.

 

[Griffin]

I think Tom has talked about this in the past few months and I'm sure I have mentioned it on a couple of occassions. One of the things that had to happen to in order for this wild march upwards to reach more sustainable growth rates (i.e. for this last bull run to end), was a progressive punishment of the dip buyers.

These deep V's we are seeing are just the way that needs to happen. A steep drop that lures in the dip buyers, a little bit of relief and then a sharp step down. It's already starting to look like this morning could be the set up for the next beating. Today's V took us lower then either of the previous two. So we have yet to see a retest of the lows. We have come a considerable distance, so I'm prepared to start looking for a bottom. I suspect a bottom in the foriegn markets may be coming in another day or two, if the US does not surprise them with another hugh sell off later in the week (which is definitely within the realm of possibility).

Since I will be traveling tomorrow, I am not going to even consider a move back in the market for today. I still see the greater risk as being in the market.

 

[Griffin]

I'm here in not so sunny San Diego and it kind of interesting. It reminds me of the Jersey shore. I mention this because I peeked into property values and suprisingly enough, they are fairly equivalent (San Diego is a little higher, but that is to be expected). What is interesting is that the area seems to consider itself the heart of subprime lending land and it's taking a beating from a corporate failure/jobs persepective according to the local rag.

I moved back into stocks yesterday and I'm prepared to stick around through the weekend. Currently, I have an edge on the stock funds and I would like to keep it that way. Here's an intraday chart showing how we had a descending wedge close and now we have a well defined intraday channel formed to the upside. If the channel does not hold it is likely we will see some red, but I can live with that since I am feeling fairly confident that a retest may be a reality, but a significant move lower is not likely. The damage is done, it's time to catch the next wave. I must be near the beach, I'm almost ready to start talking like a surfer nahhhh but I will probably stop in to see the local Metallica tribute band.

 

[ChemEng]

Agreed. Unless theres something drastic that happens before lunch, Im going to stay in through the weekend. Not too sure how to play next week though with CPI and PPI numbers getting briefed. Have you thought that far ahead yet surfer dude?

 

[airlift]

Have yourself a great time! Thanks for posting your views!

 

[FundSurfer]

What's amatter wid soundin like a surfer, Dude?

 

[Griffin]

Agreed. Unless theres something drastic that happens before lunch, Im going to stay in through the weekend. Not too sure how to play next week though with CPI and PPI numbers getting briefed. Have you thought that far ahead yet surfer dude?

Dude,

Your killin' mu buzz with all dat.

To not answer your question, the committee (the voices in my head) haven't decided if they expect those numbers to be inflationary or not.

 

[Remo]

Welcome to San Dog Griff! Where ya stayin'? The "Marine layer" has burned off and it's turning out to be a typical day here. You here for business or pleasure? Also, the closer to the beach you get the more expensive the homes. You can get some comparably priced stuff, but you'll be living out east, almost in the desert.

 

[GGal]

Dude,

Your killin' mu buzz with all dat.

To not answer your question, the committee (the voices in my head) haven't decided if they expect those numbers to be inflationary or not.

I knew it! (the voices in my head)

LOL!

GA

 

[Griffin]

Welcome to San Dog Griff! Where ya stayin'? The "Marine layer" has burned off and it's turning out to be a typical day here. You here for business or pleasure? Also, the closer to the beach you get the more expensive the homes. You can get some comparably priced stuff, but you'll be living out east, almost in the desert.

Remo,

Thanks for the hearty welcome

I'm here for pleasure but business is paying the bills and a requirement of the program (that's your tax dollars hard at work). I'm at mission beach. What's the local's choice for things to do?

 

[fabijo]

I'm here for pleasure but business is paying the bills and a requirement of the program (that's your tax dollars hard at work). I'm at mission beach. What's the local's choice for things to do?

Ahh. Mission Beach. I went there back in 1995 when I was stationed in 29 Palms, CA. Something happened to me there that changed my life forever.

 

[Remo]

Remo,

Thanks for the hearty welcome

I'm here for pleasure but business is paying the bills and a requirement of the program (that's your tax dollars hard at work). I'm at mission beach. What's the local's choice for things to do?

Can't really speak for mission Beach, I never hung out there....it's filled with very crunchy, anti-war, anti capitalist types. Now, a few miles up the coast is Pacific Beach. That's where all the college kids hang out and the best places to go are The Penant, the Beachcomber, and Moondoggies. If you're not into young Nubile college women, then I suggest Downtown San Diego. "Little Italy" or the "Gas Lamp" district. Great bars, great eateries. If you're lost or need more ideas for entertainment, give me a call: XXX-XXX-XXXX I'll gladly give you a tour and buy you a drink. Cheers!

 

[GGal]

If you're not into young Nubile college women, then I suggest Downtown San Diego. "Little Italy" or the "Gas Lamp" district. Great bars, great eateries. Cheers!

nu•bile

Pronunciation: (nOO'bil, -bīl, nyOO'-), [key]
—adj.
1. (of a young woman) suitable for marriage, esp. in regard to age or physical development; marriageable.
2. (of a young woman) sexually developed and attractive: the nubile girls in their bikinis.

It's been awhile since I've been nubile. Now I'm oldbile! Ha! But smarter, and somehow holding it all together.

GA

 

[Remo]

GG wrote:

"nu•bile

Pronunciation: (nOO'bil, -bīl, nyOO'-), [key]
—adj.
1. (of a young woman) suitable for marriage, esp. in regard to age or physical development; marriageable."


Ol'bile or newbile....any girl from georgia is worth marryin'!! Love that accent!

 

[Griffin]

I was out an about last night in the Gaslamp district. Spring break is in town so most of those nubile women out there were closer to my first grade daughter's age then mine.

GG, I guess that means I'm probably a lot closer to your age then you realize, does that make me oldile too? Actually on a good night, with the right clothes and fresh haircut (no grey) I can pass for 30, all I need is a fake ID to make me younger. Speaking of being right behind you , I am 19 on Rokids list and you are 18 (your 18 again:laugh: ).

My two benchmarks are to beat a 50S/50I BAH strategy and to meet or beat every other fund. A 50S/50I is currently at 1.64% meaning roughly 25% of our tracked members are making that goal and another 17% are inline with the second goal.

Given that those are both very aggressive goals and many of our members are not that aggressive, we as a group are doing excellent. Good show.

 

[GGal]

I love being 18 again!!!!!!!!

GA

 

[Remo]

Grif,
Sounds like you're having a good time. I wish I could join you for an adult beverage but I have to fly on the 10P-6A shift. Definitely frowned upon. Try "Croce's" tonight. It's a jazz bar close to Horton Plaza, downtown.

 

[Griffin]

These business trips are brutal (NOT :nuts: ), between dinner with contractors and committee meetings, my liver is more marinated then the market. As I am writing, it's looking like Japan is struggling to hold itself together. Virtually the entire board jumped into a capital preservation mode today and I think I will likely follow suite tomorrow. It seems to me that when we have these mass migrations, we tend to be right. I will make my call shortly after the opening bell. Got to love being on the left coast, you can actually watch the market open before going to work. You folks that live out here need to appreciate the advantage that gives you (as long as you don't wake up late with a hangover).

Happy trading.