GDPNow GDP Estimates

[tsptalk]

First-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On April 29, the standard GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.7 percent. The alternative model growth estimate is -1.5 percent.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Initial Estimate of Second-Quarter GDP Growth Is 2.4 Percent

On April 30, the initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On May 1, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 1.1 percent, down from 2.4 percent on April 30.
The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, May 6.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On May 6, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.2 percent, up from 1.1 percent on May 1.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On May 15, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent, up from 2.3 percent on May 8.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On May 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent, down from 2.5 percent on May 15.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On May 27, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.2 percent, down from 2.4 percent on May 16.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On May 30, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent, up from 2.2 percent on May 27.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Wow.

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On June 2, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 4.6 percent, up from 3.8 percent on May 30.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On June 5, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent, down from 4.6 percent on June 2.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[James48843]

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On June 5, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent, down from 4.6 percent on June 2.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

So what you are saying y it s that over a roughly 2 week period, a full quarter’s worth of GDP forecast of the SECOND quarter, which is already 2/3rds over, varied from :

2.2% on May 30, to 4.6% two days later, back down to 3.8% a week later.

That really doesn’t sound like anybody has any science in any of this. It’s a dart board daily.

 

[tsptalk]

Sounds just like how they get the jobs report numbers.

 

[tsptalk]

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On June 18, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.4 percent, down from 3.5 percent on June 17.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

I must have missed an update:...

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On June 27, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent, down from 3.4 percent on June 18.

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreased

On July 1, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent, down from 2.9 percent on June 27.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On July 3, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.6 percent, up from 2.5 percent on July 1.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Declined

On July 17, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.4 percent, down from 2.6 percent on July 9.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On July 29, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent, up from 2.4 percent on July 25.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Initial Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate 2.3 Percent

On July 31, the initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Declined

On August 1, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.1 percent, down from 2.3 percent on July 31.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[tsptalk]

Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increased

On August 5, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent, up from 2.1 percent on August 1.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org