Fund Prices

[cowboy]

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TSP is updating 9-13 - 9-17 and we will know where the fundings close at. I think my figures are off some but that can be expected with the funds following the indexes and me with no close figures to work off of. We might see a bear side Monday or Tuesday and if we do might be a chance again. Looking at TSP if I could of made a move it would have been a nice gain.

 

[jwlane]

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I was wrong. The prices updated. All our transactions will have been executed at those prices. Oh, wait,.....

 

[tsptalk]

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cowboy wrote:

Yep! Thats about it! It might go down Monday could go up too! If I had that crystal ball?mmmmm Maybe Tom will have a hint or two.

Seems like everyone, including me, thinks the market should, could, might, go down Monday. That's makes me think we might see a surprise upward move. :shock:

Remember, the marketusually does the opposite ofwhat the large majority thinks.

 

[Mike]

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Tom, we are anything but a large majority.

If the handful of us saying these things are a large majority, what are our real names? Greenspan? Buffett...?

 

[cowboy]

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Mike wrote:

Tom, we are anything but a large majority.

If the handful of us saying these things are a large majority, what are our real names? Greenspan? Buffett...?

I agree, I think the majority is shown in Tom's bullish vs bearish % numbers. If you look at tspmoney.com charts they are all at the top of there trends at the moment. By the way tspmoney didn't up date during Ivan. This market may go up another $.10 before falling back into the channel to lower yields. If you have a system I believe most system people are in the G fund right now unless you have a system that keeps you in the 3 stock funds all the time and just play gain in stock shares and not value. There was a poster on here that had a system to gain stock share not a bad system. The reason why I feel a stock share gain system is good. Is because the actual value of the stock fluctuates daily nd the amount of shares you have or can gain is way more important. The value of the stock currently to all of us is paper until we take it out. The more stocks you can gain the more valuable your tsp will be regardless the price when we retire.A stock gain system may not be good for emotional people as they watch price more then the number of stocks they own.When I am in G which I am right now I'm hoping I can get back in and gain shares and I think that is what most are actually trying to do or should try to do. I am thinking of just getting into stocks and playing a systemwith the C,S,I funds and play stockgain anduse price as an indicator to move from one fund to the other. The benefits to a system like this would be u would not miss a rally and when the market is bearish you would be playing stock gain not price. Of course if your emotionalthis system might have you pulling your hair out as you see price go downin a bearish market!

 

[tsptalk]

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Mike wrote:

Tom, we are anything but a large majority.

No, we are not the large majority, but our small sampling of investors here are no different than the whole (like an election poll). Do you remember how negative everyone was here in early to midAugust? Read some of the posts when we were near the bottom (August 13th-ish). You'll see what I mean.

Here's one from August 13th, the day of the bottom...
"Been in C, S and I, for about 18 months. Lately taking a beating while contributing more $$$...

TheI fund looks to bethe worst. For now this aggressive investor, willpreserve capital. Probably for a good long while. I will check the moving averages every three or four days. looking for something positive."

That was was general feeling by many on the board. I'm not saying we are not smart here.I even use my own sentiment as a contrarian guide. If I am not nervous about the market, I usually should be.And when I'm very nervous, the market tends to do well. I have tofight my sentiment and realize that the indicators are usually right, not me.

On the other hand,Idid noticethat there is a lot of bullish talk on the financial networks. That makes me nervous.

 

[jwlane]

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If a tree falls in the forest, and no one is around to hear it, is there any sound?

If a stock/fund price changes, and no one is able to trade on that change, was there really a change?

 

[tsptalk]

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jwlane wrote:

If a tree falls in the forest, and no one is around to hear it, is there any sound?

If a stock/fund price changes, and no one is able to trade on that change, was there really a change?

Just to your account balance.

 

[Mike]

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I haven't done any interfund transfers since June 30th... perhaps this contradicts some women in my past who have said I'm not patient enough.

In other words... I will continue to stand pat here until I see a buying opportunity in the I fund. Still holding onto the 55 C / 45 S distribution. Short-term pullbacks don't bother me. Month-long weakness does not bother me. I actually seem to like buying into a weak market. So I say bring on Greenspan, the rate hike, and the knee-jerk reaction. I don't recommend anyone else do this - unless, like me, you have a 40 year horizon.

However, I would appreciate any input people have on the 100% G allocation for new investment every two weeks vs. simply dumping money in that mimics the overall fund distribution. Any thoughts on that?

 

[cowboy]

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Mike wrote:

I haven't done any interfund transfers since June 30th... perhaps this contradicts some women in my past who have said I'm not patient enough.

In other words... I will continue to stand pat here until I see a buying opportunity in the I fund. Still holding onto the 55 C / 45 S distribution. Short-term pullbacks don't bother me. Month-long weakness does not bother me. I actually seem to like buying into a weak market. So I say bring on Greenspan, the rate hike, and the knee-jerk reaction. I don't recommend anyone else do this - unless, like me, you have a 40 year horizon.

However, I would appreciate any input people have on the 100% G allocation for new investment every two weeks vs. simply dumping money in that mimics the overall fund distribution. Any thoughts on that?

My thought is that it depends where you feel the market is at. I am currently putting in G but when market was declining I would put in stocks. I think I will leave mine in G as now I move 100 % interfund. The shares a person gets every 2 weeks does not add up to much and usually move it on an interfund move any way.

 

[cowboy]

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cowboy wrote:

I agree with you Jwlane about the TSP since it is closed will not post until the 20th when it does transactions. In other words the 14th -17th will be missing but Im thinking that the market will open with the Friday close price. I don't believe that the TSP transactionson Monday are going to drive Mondays Market. I have kept track of the funds since the close on the13th. In accordance to my figures this is what I have the markets at on opening on Monday the 20th:

09/13/04 G FC S I

10.55 10.3011.93 12.91 13.43

09/20/04 10.55 10.2511.95 12.92 13.38

The G fund will most likely go up .01 on Monday if not, on Tuesday. The other funds if you watch the tickers that they follow will go up or down according to the market on Monday and TSP will post the close of Monday in relation to the fund it follows. If I'm wrong I guess I'm wrong but if you follow the tickers and say C orticker indexgoes up .54 then all I do is multiply the price of prior days close by 1.0054, That would put the price of C a $12.01 and if you make a transaction prior to 11:00 AM you will buy at $12.01 which they will show on the 21st as the close for the 20th. If the market would go down then the price per share would be $11.89. I don't know but this may seem confusing but what I'm showing you in the graph is what I believe the funds closed at today the 17th. I have not made any posts on the TSP till today but I have been doing my own research on what I have learned here. The (I fund) I could be off on because as Tom and others have stated the dollar affects it, so it could be slightly higher or lower then my estimate, the others I have been fairly accurate at. In accordance to my chart there is little change. I was following the chatter on TSP Talk and I find I trade maybe more then most. I am currently 100% G, when I make a move it's a 100% usually one way or another. My plan was before TSP closed, was just what Tom was saying he said that he thought themarkets might take a breather I had just made a nice percentage the prior week and stepped out to let the market drop my guess was this was going to happen Tuesday or Wednesday. It did it took the breather I was looking to take advantage of on Wednesday andthe S fund dropped $.10 in other words I think the price of S on Wednesday was $12.81 I would have bought in prior to 11:00 am andmight of sold today at$12.92 giving me a gain of$.12 a share. If you have 5000 shares that$600.00 a missed opportunity. The others that are stuck in the stock funds will have the close price onMonday and I'm sure some got nervous on Wednesday when the market droppedas we all do. But all looks fine at the moment, but maybe price go down on Monday. The best thing to do people ishave a system like Milkman and several others that you follow and try to take the emotion out of it.Everyone has their risk factor there willing to take.My theory is this, I try to watch the TSP funds and what there doingpure and simple. The rest of the marketschatter is garbage but can influence you. There is some I listen to and some I chuckle at and dune out. If your going to fool with your funds have a goal and know where the market is at. Right now if it stays consolidated its at the top in my opinion. Will I take a chance of it going higher? Maybe! There is no quicker learning experience then watching your funds go down. I'm no expert but I do feel that the next time the market goes bear I won't be there.

Im sorry but if any of you are following this it should be showing the F fund at about $11.30 on the 20th, I will play the F fund but haven't lately and I didn't figure in Thursdays big move.


The TSP just updated to 9/17/04 close:

G F C S I

10.55 10.31 11.96 12.9513.37

I was off some on S because I probably read a lower reading before they had updated a close on Wednesday. I like the S fund holding its gains. Since I is down today I am going 100% I effective at todays close.

 

[Mike]

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I'd say the reason why we're only seeing modest growth (after lots of sideways action) both in the market and on the jobs front is because we have a lot of headcases in this country. People fear high oil prices, terrorism, Alan Greenspan, and any economic data that isn't tremendous for six months straight.

Yes, I'd say that was a bit tongue-in-cheek there, but the point I believe is generally valid. We are also falling into the trap of comparing earnings growth with the tremendous growth that occurred last year (which was a great growth year primarily because the year before it was so god awful). We can't have 20% earnings growth every year. As soon as the investorsand would-be investors accept this, we can get on with life and enter into a healthy long-lasting bull market.

In the meantime, about all we can get is a few periods of modest gains followed by fluctuations and/or weakness.

 

[cowboy]

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I'm in 100% I now that they updated funds. Trying to play a bounce!

 

[cowboy]

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I noticed that this says I am 100% I fund. I am currently 100% G Fund as on tuesday I did an interfund move along with Namor.MT has some interesting posts and currently the trend is down! It is tough to make cash in a trending down market I may wait until Oct. 7th as MT has pointed out. I like playing the F fund but lately it is up very good and this Spring it disconnected anda bear ate outits previous gains.

 

[Guest]

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Cowboy,

Thank you for your comments. You hear a lot of noise on this board. I have done fairly well in the market for the previous 14 years. Not to sound like a egomanic but if you listen to what I have been saying I have been fairly close (example to the day on the sell off/ 22 Sep) to what is going on in the markets. I follow historic trends and put up my periscope to see what is going on out there. Those who get in the market prior to the Sep Job Report is really taking a risk. Risk/reward is the key in the market and capital preservation. Hope in the stock funds...take some cents and get the heck out and not take a hit.

If you look at the previous nine down turns those who got in at the tops have taken heavy hits. Just let the coins roll down the hill, pick them up and follow the trough back up the lower highs. The key in this market is not to get greedy and all those indicators that people are taughting on this board do not work in this choppy market. Whatever you hear on tv this is a bear market. The reason those people say this is a good market is they want people to keep their money invested to get the management fee off them.

Once again I appreciate your comments. I do not want to sound like I am better then anyone but I really put the time in to research and keep my eyes to the ground. I want to help people on this board to make money. That is my only goal.

Good luck!

MT



cowboy wrote:

I noticed that this says I am 100% I fund. I am currently 100% G Fund as on tuesday I did an interfund move along with Namor.MT has some interesting posts and currently the trend is down! It is tough to make cash in a trending down market I may wait until Oct. 7th as MT has pointed out. I like playing the F fund but lately it is up very good and this Spring it disconnected anda bear ate outits previous gains.

 

[Guest]

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cowboy wrote:

I noticed that this says I am 100% I fund. I am currently 100% G Fund as on tuesday I did an interfund move along with Namor.MT has some interesting posts and currently the trend is down! It is tough to make cash in a trending down market I may wait until Oct. 7th as MT has pointed out. I like playing the F fund but lately it is up very good and this Spring it disconnected anda bear ate outits previous gains.

Since when is the market trending down? It's been trending up since Aug 13th. DO yourself a favor. Don't listen to MT. YOu'll always be a day late and a dollar short.

 

[Guest]

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mlk_man wrote:

cowboy wrote:

I noticed that this says I am 100% I fund. I am currently 100% G Fund as on tuesday I did an interfund move along with Namor.MT has some interesting posts and currently the trend is down! It is tough to make cash in a trending down market I may wait until Oct. 7th as MT has pointed out. I like playing the F fund but lately it is up very good and this Spring it disconnected anda bear ate outits previous gains.

Since when is the market trending down? It's been trending up since Aug 13th. DO yourself a favor. Don't listen to MT. YOu'll always be a day late and a dollar short.

Hmm trending down looks like this to me. Don't follow the lower highs, lower low guy (who said two weeks ago the sell off was starting 22 Sep!). You missed one of the best moves of the year...hopefully no one followed your sound advice.

 

[Guest]

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MarketTimer wrote:

mlk_man wrote:

cowboy wrote:

I noticed that this says I am 100% I fund. I am currently 100% G Fund as on tuesday I did an interfund move along with Namor.MT has some interesting posts and currently the trend is down! It is tough to make cash in a trending down market I may wait until Oct. 7th as MT has pointed out. I like playing the F fund but lately it is up very good and this Spring it disconnected anda bear ate outits previous gains.

Since when is the market trending down? It's been trending up since Aug 13th. DO yourself a favor. Don't listen to MT. YOu'll always be a day late and a dollar short.

Hmm trending down looks like this to me. Don't follow the lower highs, lower low guy (who said two weeks ago the sell off was starting 22 Sep!). You missed one of the best moves of the year...hopefully no one followed your sound advice.

Ummm, I'm sorry, do we have fund that tracks the Dow?

13-Aug-04
10.51
10.23
11.27
11.87
12.81

16-Aug-04
10.51
10.22
11.42
12.06
12.93

17-Aug-04
10.52
10.24
11.45
12.12
12.89

18-Aug-04
10.52
10.23
11.59
12.32
13

19-Aug-04
10.52
10.24
11.55
12.25
13.03

20-Aug-04
10.52
10.24
11.63
12.44
12.99

23-Aug-04
10.52
10.22
11.6
12.37
12.96

24-Aug-04
10.52
10.22
11.61
12.39
12.96

25-Aug-04
10.53
10.23
11.7
12.49
12.99

26-Aug-04
10.53
10.25
11.7
12.47
13.08

27-Aug-04
10.53
10.25
11.73
12.54
13.13

30-Aug-04
10.53
10.27
11.64
12.42
13.11

31-Aug-04
10.53
10.29
11.69
12.49
13.17

1-Sep-04
10.53
10.3
11.72
12.58
13.2

2-Sep-04
10.54
10.27
11.85
12.71
13.3

3-Sep-04
10.54
10.23
11.8
12.65
13.15

7-Sep-04
10.54
10.25
11.88
12.76
13.29

8-Sep-04
10.54
10.29
11.83
12.68
13.32

9-Sep-04
10.54
10.28
11.85
12.77
13.24

10-Sep-04
10.55
10.29
11.91
12.84
13.38

13-Sep-04
10.55
10.3
11.93
12.91
13.43

14-Sep-04
10.55
10.31
11.96
12.9
13.47

15-Seo-04
10.55
10.3
11.88
12.85
13.29

16-Sep-04
10.55
10.34
11.91
12.96
13.32

17-Sep-04
10.55
10.31
11.96
12.95
13.37

20-Sep-04
10.56
10.35
11.9
12.91
13.33

21-Sep-04
10.56
10.35
11.97
13.01
13.56

22-Sep-04
10.56
10.37
11.8
12.84
13.37

One down day and all of a sudden we are in a downtrend? Hmmmm, interesting. I say you're full of it. Sorry , just my humble opinion.

 

[Guest]

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What's wrong MT, didn't like the nic Harley? Gotcha didn't I? Haha.....................

 

[Guest]

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That was off your govexec.com site.

Besides I was just trying to help you by answering your question. You are a real man someone tries to help you and you slap them down. Besides you were in the G fund during that great market move...it is better for you not to see what you missed :^out on by your "system".

MT



mlk_man wrote:

What's wrong MT, didn't like the nic Harley? Gotcha didn't I? Haha.....................