Frizz B Account Talk

[tsptalk]

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Frizz B. wrote:

So here it is for tommorrow, I believe that the (S to I) will come in around 28 today, so if the S fund is outdoing the I fund tommorrow, and this will have to show at least a .50 advantage by the trade deadline. I will be moving my funds to the I fund. I am looking for a 320 differential for the F, and right now it is at 293 and after today should be close to 300. If the market has a good week, I will be looking to move the funds at the end of the week to the G fund. My last trade the differential was at 283, and although it went to 225, it has now come back to 293 and climbing. Patience, Patience, Patience.

Its interesting that with all of the research I do, your spreadsheetcomes up with about the same information. Makes it simple. Like Rolo said, your numbers basically do what my overbought/oversold indicators are doing. But your formulas take the guess work out of it. Pretty neat.

 

[Rolo]

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tsptalk wrote:

Its interesting that with all of the research I do, your spreadsheetcomes up with about the same information. Makes it simple. Like Rolo said, your numbers basically do what my overbought/oversold indicators are doing. But your formulas take the guess work out of it. Pretty neat.

The FBO saved me from hacking up my TSP like I did my stocks today. :s

(Assuming my instincts are prophetic, but in either case, I am glad I kept TSP and regret reneging on keeping my run-up small-caps.)

 

[Frizz B.]

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I do have my account online at work now, so If I am not in or going to a meeting, I should have no problem doing it.

Nice compliment, Tom, thanks. I think the big difference between my differential theory and your reasoning, using the overbought/oversold indicators, is that I hold on and wait for the numbers to change and I only play one fund at a time, notspreading my funds into 2 to 4 funds. I can't see in my numbers to play a diversity of funds.

It would be interesting to know how many of the investers are trying to use my system. The more that I keep looking at the numbers, the more it works, for now.

My new craze, is using the S to I differential. I went over the last month, since the 31st of April, when I moved my funds to the S fund. If I had used the (S to I) theory thatI have been thinking about, a good probability of an extra $2000 to $3000 could of been made.Again this is hindsight, so now I will put it into effect.

If you have been reading my account talk, I have always said you have to adjust to the numbersgiven to you. June through November, the numbers were -25 to + 25, with zero as you (base zero), now they seem to be 10 to 45. Using 30 as your (base zero)

Rolo, does this mean that because of what you saw in my differential theory, you decided to leave your tsp in the Stock funds. If this is the case, I am glad I could help.

 

[Rolo]

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Frizz B. wrote:

My new craze, is using the S to I differential. I went over the last month, since the 31st of April, when I moved my funds to the S fund. If I had used the (S to I) theory thatI have been thinking about, a good probability of an extra $2000 to $3000 could of been made.Again this is hindsight, so now I will put it into effect.

I can see that now! If the S peaks and the I is at bottom, BAM! switch to I rather than G. If they converge again (S low, I high), go right back. That would be a sweeeet deal.

The I seems to be finishing a downtrend within an uptrend, it may be at a higher low right now. If I did not think the S would go higher (and I, in turn, likely lower), I would have switched today.



Frizz B. wrote:

If you have been reading my account talk, I have always said you have to adjust to the numbersgiven to you. June through November, the numbers were -25 to + 25, with zero as you (base zero), now they seem to be 10 to 45. Using 30 as your (base zero)

That is why I used moving averages to define the zero-base, self-adapting. You probably do that in your head, but I can hardly do simple arithmetic "in the air". Plus, my goal was to take more (emotion?) out of the picture so I don't hork it. I want the facts in my face as much as possible to keep me from doing something stupid. (Can you make these for all of my holdings? behehehe)



Frizz B. wrote:

Rolo, does this mean that because of what you saw in my differential theory, you decided to leave your tsp in the Stock funds. If this is the case, I am glad I could help.

Yes, that is precisely why. The differential graph paints a clear picture and I agree with the premise (hard not to); it makes it easier to speculate and within the context of the TSP choices.

I show a forward zero-base/differential/threshold ("forward" meaning, when my transfer would take effect, two days from now, on the assumption thatthe prices did not change--since they can go either way--and taking the current trend into accountwith the moving averages), as 276/300/303:^ S, 29/23/17:t I.

:^= rising, :t= falling, not bad, hehe. Tom, can you get some arrow "smileys"?



If I thought the uptrend were ending, I would have switched. Values stay within one standard deviation2/3 of the time and within two standard deviations 95% of the time. I think this week we will be in the second standard deviation, somewhere around 330 (share price around $13.25), then a quick pull-back to maybe 310 or 290 (~$13), then who knows what.

 

[tsptalk]

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Rolo wrote:

Tom, can you get some arrow "smileys"?

:} :{

 

[Frizz B.]

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Rolo, You seem to have it down pretty good, with a little variance of the lows and highs that I work with, which is kool, Can you start a Rolo Account that begins with May 31st, with $100,000. It would be kool to see someone else use my theory of Relativity, :dude:and maybe between the both of us, we can make the tsp.talk world Millionairs :^ totally broke :s or at least very squimish :shock:.

 

[Rolo]

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Frizz B. wrote:

Rolo, You seem to have it down pretty good, with a little variance of the lows and highs that I work with, which is kool, Can you start a Rolo Account that begins with May 31st, with $100,000. It would be kool to see someone else use my theory of Relativity, :dude:and maybe between the both of us, we can make the tsp.talk world Millionairs :^ totally broke :s or at least very squimish :shock:.

LOL!

hehe...Unified Fund Theory



Yes, I was going to do that today. I tried. However, I seemed to have underestimated my ability to figure out your share price worksheet--or, rather, your methodology. I got the worksheet just fine, but not how to use it, heh.

I started to make my own version (building something makes you understand it better), but got stuck on, "Okay, how the heck to I translate my trades into this?"

Also, why did you make most recent transaction on top rather than going top-down?

Oh, I did discover today that you can copy the whole row of share prices from TSP.gov and just paste it into Excel and it will fill in the five cells. Later, after I get my spreadsheet finished, I am going to try to paste the whole share price table since inception and plot it to see if my moving average addition needs more tweaking.

I also need a 42" LCD screen to display all this stuff!

(And yes, that would be a tax deductible item, too!)

 

[Frizz B.]

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It does not look like I will be changing over to the I fund today, The I fund is up over the S today so unless things change within the next hour, I will stay in the S fund.

Rolo, I first isert a line to show when I make my change then in the shares box above the date you are changing put the = sign, then click on the dollar amt that you have in your account and divide (/) by the Share price of the fund that you are moving into.

You can double click on any box and it will show you what the formula is for that box, whether it is = to the box below or the calculations for the box.

I also go top to bottom, it is easier to work it that way,when you open thespreadsheet at the begginning, it usually always goes to the top of the page, and if you notice, when you pull the tsp share prices, it does it in the same way.

 

[thinks]

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Have you always only used one fund at a time or did your system perfect that too? Got a question for ya and it's because of someone else's post about diversification in the roth fund... do you worry about that or do you feel since you have other diversification out there (I'm assuming you do) that it balances out okay.... just thought you could comment more on this to help me connect the dots in my head. Thanks.

Oh, one more time... what is your email? lol.

 

[Frizz B.]

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I only use one fund at a time, my system can not tell mewhere to diversify the funds. It is prettygood at telling me which fund to choose, alsoI am more of a gambler, I want all or nothing, and it is easier to do my calculations that way. If the S funds stays up for the day, we are getting very close to changing to the G fund, right now at 300, could be around 305 by the end of today, with the (S to I indicator still right around 26. If the stocks are doing well tommorrow, I will probably be moving into the G fund for Friday.

Frizz B.

Email address is

vbfrizzb@comcast.net

 

[Rolo]

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Watch posting your e-mail address on sites...it will get harvested and become a spam magnet.

I recommend spelling it out, like "name at domain dot com".

 

[Rolo]

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Frizz B. wrote:

Rolo, I first isert a line to show when I make my change then in the shares box above the date you are changing put the = sign, then click on the dollar amt that you have in your account and divide (/) by the Share price of the fund that you are moving into.

Oh! So if you move S to G, you would take G's $ / G's share price to get # shares added to G and S's $ / .... no, wait...nguh.

heh

I take it this only works when moving all shares around..?



[line]


S @ 304/1StdDev @ 301/2StdDev @ 327

C @ 108/1StdDev @ 112/2StdDev @ 128

I'm looking at bailing at the edge of the second standard deviation. (Note that it rises as the MA rises.)

 

[Frizz B.]

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I take the Dollar of my account that I am in, the divide it by the share price of the fund that I am going into.

I will probably come really close to riding the s fund to the max, I was thinking of doing the change right around 315, but I don't want to play it safe anymore, made to many changes to early and had to wait for the turnaround. So if it does go above the 315 mark, I will wait till the S fund starts to take a big loss and then hide for the hills.

 

[Rolo]

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315 sounds good atm. Do you consider the zero-base "floating" upwards like I do?

Unless the uptrend loses velocity, I am shooting for just inside the top of the second standard deviation. I just e-mailed you the spreadsheet with the extra StdDev plots.

Shifting the TSP is harder because of the two-day lag. Ideally, we have to anticipate the top two days before it happens. It's hard enough to see it when it happens!

If we wait until the top, we will sell after two days of drops. However, if there isn't much of a drop, and we sell late, then we may very well be buying after two up days, at a higher price.

In any case, we can still beat its own average, and that is the point.

 

[Frizz B.]

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We have only hit above the 320 for a very short time and then droped quite significantly, will it go to the 330-340 range ???, Even at this pt. if the market start to show a significant drop before the trade deadline, might make the move. If it goes above the 315 range, then on the first sight of trouble, get out quick.

 

[Frizz B.]

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Hello to everyone following the (then FrizzB differential theory), it will soon be called the "FrizzRoloB differential theory". Rolo has added some nice features to my excel spreadsheet, and let me tell you, I do believe he's got it.

Like I have always said, I adjust to the numbers, well in this case Rolo has added numbers to my numbers, which will help me adjust. It is really nice to see someone else, see what I see, and working with me to create and adjust.

Thanks Rolo

 

[Guest]

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I think we may be on the same page Frizz, just take different routes to get there. I am going 100% G fund today to get the "guaranteed" .01 increase. Am getting out of S because I think it is about capped. I go by share price for my movements which seem to pretty much mimic your moves. My top cap for the S fund is about 13.1 or 13.2 depending on my mood. My bottom is about 12.5 to 12.6.

Good luck all!

Mike

 

[Rolo]

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Frizz B. wrote:

Hello to everyone following the (then FrizzB differential theory), it will soon be called the "FrizzRoloB differential theory". Rolo has added some nice features to my excel spreadsheet, and let me tell you, I do believe he's got it.

And the chart can be the FrizzB-Rolo Oscillator, or FRO!

(haha, Tom even named that picture "fro.jpg")

I just put your numbers into a picture for us mathematically challenged types. :^

 

[Rolo]

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mlk_man wrote:

My top cap for the S fund is about 13.1 or 13.2 depending on my mood. My bottom is about 12.5 to 12.6.

Hi, Mike. I agree with you if the market is still going to remain in a downtrend. If it breaks the downtrend, which I think this is the time thatit will, then the top will be higher. Tom has a nice strategy, not committing all his funds to either guess, but slanted toward breaking the trendline; that way he won't miss a run-up and and won't have a total loss if it does not run up. Why don't I do the same thing? 'Cos I have a hard time applying moderation in my life.

 

[tsptalk]

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Rolo wrote:

Tom has a nice strategy, not committing all his funds to either guess, but slanted toward breaking the trendline; that way he won't miss a run-up and and won't have a total loss if it does not run up. Why don't I do the same thing? 'Cos I have a hard time applying moderation in my life.

I just started that "discipline" approach and obviously for a reason. I would have probably been 100% Ginstead of25% if I used my usually approach. But I missed a lot of ralliesthat way in strong markets.This new decision will be tough for me since I am also an all or nothing type trader.