Frizz B Account Talk

[Frizz B.]

imported post

Wheels, I did not make money but I lost less than if I was with the S fund, If you had read all my words, I wrote that I had started looking only at the I and S, when the I fund took off in early December, and did not come back, that is when I decided to look at the C fund.

This is whenImentioned thatI noticed that when the S fund gained on differential the market was going up and when the C Fund gained, it was the start of the decline. I started doing the math, and started adding and subtracting. I noticed that when the S fund would lose 30 to 50 pts and the C fund would only lose 15 to 30, so yes I did lose money, but when I traded back to the S fund and the market rose I made more money in the S fund because I had more shares.

But after a couple of trades and noticing that the C fund was also loosing money, but not as much, that is when I decided to put the F Fund into the equation. To my surprise the F fund almost constantly would go up in value when the C and S were in a market downfall. When the stocks rose, the F fund would lose. This is why I changed my philosophy from using the C fund to only the S and F fund at this point. As Tom pointed out if the interest rates rise, the C fund will probably outperform the S fund, and at that point I will adjust to the situation. Nothing is set in stone, I still believe that ifI can adjust to the differential numbers and what they are telling me, thatthis system will work, it has done really well for me since Jan 15th when I started to do my trading. I have been in a learning mode since day one and keep on looking at my #'s and all the stock tips that everyone else has. I am always learning.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Frizz -
Please try to upate your account prior to the deadline if possible. It's obvious you are notplaying games. Just trying to stick to the game plan we setup...
(http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forum21/91.html).

For example, a quick "50% C, 50% G" posted just afteryou make your transfer will suffice.

So are you in F Fund Monday because of the historicaldata I postedor because of your differential?

Thanks,
Tom

 

[Frizz B.]

imported post

Tom, I understand what you are saying, it is hard for me to update before the trading deadline. I work at that time and I'm not able to make it on the board at that time. I will give an early warning saying what I will probably be doing. But as you can tell I took the biggest hit of all the funds. My trades will go along with the system that I am workiing with.

Thanks FrizzB.

 

[Frizz B.]

imported post

Price Differential hit 300, I will put my funds back into 100 % S fund today, will hit tommorrow, I will update then. Was dissapointed that the stock funds took a big hit, which my points system showed me it would, but the F Fund also declined quite abit more than it has before, usually went up. So as we all know, nothing is fool proof. My point differential will now probably change with the market, will have to start calculating again. Take my extra shares in the S fund and move on, hopefully stocks don't have a huge gain today, while I'm still in the F fund until Tommorrow.

 

[Frizz B.]

imported post

Planned that move pretty close. Missed by one day. Here is the history that I have been following:

Jan 26 pt differential was 321,.Had approxiamately 7 losing days before the market started climbing. Feb 4 diff was at 261

Feb 27 diff was at 312. Had approxiamately 5 losing days.

March 4 diff was at 320 had approx. 10 plus days of losing 3-20 diff was at 230

April 5 pt diff was at 341, the highest pt diff so far. We are basically at the 4th losing day, don't know when it will turn around, not worried about it. With all the talk of the up year in stocks I will wait it out and take my gains when they come. We are at 298 pt diff, butsince Ihave adjusted my paramatures on my pt diff I have made the move back to the S fund and will wait for the market to rise (hopefully). I have listened to Tom say, if the interest starts to rise the C fund should start outdoing the S fund. It will only take me one time to see this and I will adjust and learn.

Still I am very pleased with the 135 shares of stocks that I picked up in my 4 day trade from the S fund to the F fund back to the S Fund. VERY PLEASED.

Will update when the differential tells me what todo. No more one day trading for me.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Thanks Frizz B. -
I do appreciate that you, and the others,put youraccount transactions out in the open.It really helpsus all learn newideas.

I can tell you are learning a lot about the market and your system will be a fine tuned machine one day.

I still don't see you mentioning the fact that using the G fund rather than the F when certain conditions present themselves could pay off. It's not really a matter of opinion as you mentioned.Even if you were "right" and the F fund had outperformed the G fund rather thandroppingsome,the better play whenthe economy heats up is to avoid interest sensitve investments. Bonds and small caps are interest rate sensitive. Sure there will be rebound bounces, but I think your spreadsheet may need another element to take advantage of all of the funds when appropriate. Your system will benefit if you incorporate this into your formulas somehow.

Thanks again. Keep up the good work.
Tom

 

[Frizz B.]

imported post

You are making my point for me. You gained shares but you lost money. You will make money only when (and if) your share price increases.

Dave

Dave, you are not getting my point. Tell me when, every trade you made more money. The only way to do that, is to be in the G Fund, which you will never lose money, but will never make money except for the 1 penny every 5 or 6 days. Like Tom suggested and I have already started thinking about when to put into the G instead of the F. When my#'s increase or decrease to the point where It will be time to switch funds, I will ask Tom his opinion on the comment he made in my FrizzB’s Account talk, and this is what Tom wrote:

I still don't see you mentioning the fact that using the G fund rather than the F when certain conditions present themselves could pay off. It's not really a matter of opinion as you mentioned.Even if you were "right" and the F fund had outperformed the G fund rather thandroppingsome,the better play whenthe economy heats up is to avoid interest sensitve investments. Bonds and small caps are interest rate sensitive.

The point I am trying to get across, IF AND WHEN YOU MAKE A TRADE FROM ONE FUND TO ANOTHER AND YOU R SHARES INCREASE, EVEN THOUGH YOU MAY HAVE LOST MONEY, (IF YOU HAD STAYED IN THE SAME FUND AND YOU WOULD HAVE LOST MORE MONEY IN THAT FUND),

THEN YOU HAVE INCREASED YOUR VALUE OF YOUR FUNDS IN THE LONG RUN, AND WHEN THE SHARE PRICES INCREASE YOU HAVE MORE SHARES TO MULTIPLY THAT INCREASE BY AND YOU HAVE MADE MORE MONEY.

Dave you have your opinion on this, and if I have yet to get my point across to you on how I feel, and this is my account and how I feel is the point, that will have to do. On everyone of my trades this year, and I have made 423 shares of S funds in that time at a value of $13.02 per share, I have increased my funds by $5507, more than if I had stayed a long term investor and just stayed in the S fund only since Jan 1, 2004.

I had mentioned that I only will play the F fund and the S fund and Tom also wrote:

Following recessionary periods, small caps tend to outperform because of low interest rates. As rates start to rise however, you will eventually see a shift to the larger cap stocks. Just keep an open mind about your "never play the C Fund" strategy.

Look how the small caps dominated in the years following the 1990-1991 recession. Then the large caps took over from 1994 to 1998.
[url]http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html[/url]

Tom, I am listening, and learning, I will be writing to you on your opinions on the market whether you feel the S, C, or I, when my differential is at the low point, and whether you feel the F or G, when my point differential is at the high point and it is time to make my trade. Like I read from everyone else and I do not like being like everyone else, but I will say ,

THANKS TOM FOR YOUR CONTINUING ADVISE, IT DOES HELP.
Frizz B.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Your welcome Frizz. I do think what you are doing is going to provide a good service toothers who are interested in being in funds with better chances of advancement, but who don't want to follow the market. They can follow my moves or they can use a tool like you provide that will let them see why they need to reallocate. The market is not an exact science and the "system" may not be perfect (yet ) but it will be far better for someone who does nothing in my opinion.

Of course there are the diversify, buy and hold proponents who would need neither of our methods, but at least they have a strategy. That's the key. And diversifying is a perfectly valid way to invest.

I think most of you alreadyrealized this. Pick a strategy you are comfortable with and keep up on it. If you don't have a strategy follow someone who does. Some of you want to learn and the more you learn the comfortable you'll be making your own decisions. If you don't want to follow the market and make your own decisions, using a tool like Frizz B's will make the decisions for you. Whether you like it or not, you will learn as you go no matter what you choose to do (unless you choose to do nothing).

Tom

 

[Frizz B.]

imported post

I will be making the change, probably to the F Fund tommorrow. The differential went back to 322. That is the starting point for the change back to the F or G. I will not be able to let anyone know tommorrow, since I am at work and can not get on the computer to do my trading. I am hoping for one more good day in the S fund. Will update the FrizzB Account tommorrow night after the prices has come in.

 

[CJ]

imported post

I'm also think my stats indicate a G or F fund move, but I don't dare to move 100%.

Reason: using the C Fund only, to avoid cludder.

Mar 5th --> C was 118% of the G fund
Mar 15 --> C was 113% of G
Apr 5th --> C was 117% of G
Apr 20 --> C was 114% of G
Last Night --> C was 116% of G

Looking at a slightrecent trend 118%, 117%, 116% indicates a possible downward move may be at hand. Maybe or maybe not I'm still leaving 10% in each C,S, I.
Have a good weekend.

CJ

 

[Frizz B.]

imported post

If you are following my differential system, I am quite excited with my move. Yes I lost money on Friday but I am not worried about the market going further down. I traded once when the differential was at 269 and the differential went all the way down to 239, if you worry about this don't use my system. The differential turned around after the low of 239 and went all the way up to 341 before it came back. I hit it at 331. My system is not a day trader, I am hoping to hit the before the market has hit its highs and trade before the market has hits its lows and then wait for the market to turn again. If the #'s change and I can not go above or below the # that I changed at, (exp. my #'s are at low (295 - 300, high 310 to 320), and I hit the high and switch to the G or F and the differential starts staying between 307 and 340, I could not get back to the S. I will take the closest to the 310 change and take my share loss and change my #'s to accomadate the market switch, just as if the market started losing share prices.

FrizzB.

 

[Frizz B.]

imported post

Sorry, Tom if I am bragging or being cocky, but here are the Numbers for the month.

F fund -2.4%, C fund -1.63%, S Fund -3.71%, I Fund -1.45%

My Fund + 0.69%

My trades were differential is in the ( )

April 2 (331), April 15 (298), April 26 (319), April 29 (283)

My percentage of .69% would of been higher if not for friday, but the way I look at it, it is a great start for next month, I am looking for a gain of 3% or better since the market took a hit on the last days of April, who knows.

FrizzB.

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Frizz B. wrote:

Sorry, Tom if I am bragging or being cocky, but here are the Numbers for the month.

Don't be sorry Frizz. Those are the facts, not bragging. And I don't see anyinch high red letters this time.

You are fine and your system is doing quite well. I'm just passing along something that took me years to understand.

 

[Mr. Duke]

imported post

FrizzB,

These are my spreadsheet numbers...I hope all my formulas a right

As of COB Friday April 30

F-fund -2.54

C-fund -1.52

S-fund -3.94

I-fund -2.31

PS... Dang this sight is more exciting than all the others...You all get excited over here........For what it is worth I will stick with my percents to calculate where I am at for the year. Just find it more difficult to follow each fund that trades at a different prices (affecting the # of shares you hold) But I follow what your doing...The primary variable that comes into play is when your Bi-monthly deposit goes in. Assuming you purchase more shares of a fund, Now you have to subtract that from what you think you gained to determine what you really gained. I'm confused, so I imagine so is everyone else. I'll track day by day, percent by percent, logging it on a calender daily, and the last day I will log down my final tally... Good Luck to all! And may God Bless

 

[space]

imported post

Dear Frizz

I enjoy reading your responses, however a bit confusing...would you mind just letting us know what your daily allocations are for each fund --like Tom does? It would be interesting to see who does better!

 

[Frizz B.]

imported post

Sure, my daily rarely changes by the day, when I make my change it is steady until the differential changes significantly. My changes have gone from 2 business days to 24 business days and the average is 7 business days. I will inform the night before what the differential is, if I am about to make a change. If I do not change, it is because the stock market in the morning before the trade deadline has change my #'s significantly that it would not make since to make the change. I can not get on the website in the mornings of the days I work and inform of my changes. So I will do the best I can. I am currently in the S fund. On Thursday it was at 283 and Friday 269, for my system this is the perfect time to get into the C, S, or I, which ever is your favorite, Your choice on that one. I will wait for the differential to get above 305 and make my decision at that point. I will ride the market out until that point or unless the #'s tell me it is time to change my highs and lows.

Will this help you?

FrizzB.

 

[Lobo]

imported post

Frizz,

I know it must be here somewhere, but, can I get a copy of your spreadsheet? I tried emailing you a week or two ago, but not so sure it got through to you. I'm not even sure what I would be able to do with it, but, I sure would like to learn it. I appreciate all your input and help. Email is stanelyswartzel@yahoo.com Thanks a bunch, and I would say good "luck", but, it seems you're not really playing with luck, I think you may have something actually figured out!

Thanks!

Lobo

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Lobo -
I have mentioned this before and Frizz says he will adjust, but this system will do well in an oscillating market (one going up and down with no real advance or decline outside of arange).

My concern is what happensif and when we have a sustained sell off or rally.It will keep you in the market during a selloff and get you out of a sustained rally.

This year's oscillating markethas been a real nice envirnment for this system. Once the market stops oscillating and starts trending, up or down, Frizz will have to make some adjustments. One possible change would be to employsome sort of stop loss.

Until we start trending however,this is a real good system to use.

 

[Frizz B.]

imported post

I have already figured that in to my equation. For example: the low comes in at298 and lets say the trend goes between 250 and 300 and does not go back to the 315 I am looking for. Then I trade at the closest to the 298 as possible and start my high's and lows over. Sometimes you have to go backwards to move forwards. My #'s were at 280 to 310 when I first started and now they are at under 299 and 310 - 315depending on what my last trade was. Ex: My last low 3 was at 283, I will be happy to see a 310 differential and probably will make my trade at that time. When I tradedat the 331 differential, my low was between 300 and 305. I adjust with each trade. Hope this explanation helps. I do feel in all types of markets, I can adjust the #'s. Even in a bear market, you do have trends of ups and downs, just more downs than ups. Still have highs and lows. Adjustment is the key.

FrizzB.

 

[Mr. Duke]

imported post

Frizz,

Are you currently 100% S ??? How is the "I" stacking up for the differential??


I'm still 100% "I" since last Friday...Probablyshould make a move to get out tomorrow a.m. to be effective Thursday....expecting another good recovery day tommorrow with a pull back on Thursday. However, I will stay in since it is early in the month.....My crystal ball is foggy, but my gut feeling is solid.. Time will tell :shock: