Frizz B Account Talk

[Frizz B.]

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Yes, went 100% S fund at the end of trading day onThursday. I tried to send my spreadsheet through this sight but would never go through. If anyone is interested ingetting my spreadsheat, this is what I will try to do.Send me a quick message through your regular outlook and send it to vbfrizzb@comcast.net I will send the spreadsheet to you that way. I am also going to start another talk line. I will call it questions and answers on frizzB's spreadsheet. We will see how this will work. I use the excel spreadsheet and have 2 or more worksheets going at all times.

Frizz B.

mail to: vbfrizzb@comcast.net

 

[Frizz B.]

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Mr. Duke,

On the I fund, when the differential saysto move to the S fund for me, and this is kinda strange. If the differential is below 30 on the I to the S, the I fund increases over the S fund for a couple of days and then by time I change back to the F or G fund the I has usually gone lower in total value. Did not really notice this until you asked the question. So next time I make my trade, I now will look to see if I will play the I initially and then figure when to move it to the S fund.

Thanks for the question. I did start in early Sept. of last year with just the S and the I funds. Before they came out with the month history, I was getting burned with the funds. One would go ahead and then the other. When I made my switch it seemed to turn around on me. This is how I started to use the differential theory. In December, the I fund went ahead of the S fund and never came back. It is now going between the low teens and high 50's to 60.

FrizzB.

 

[Mr. Duke]

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I agree with the S and I flipfloping to see which was in the lead since last Sept/Oct..(not looking at stats , just to the best of my memory)...One month S would finish higher, and then the next month the I would finish higher...but does appear the I fund has a higher "beta"(volatility) than the C fund for sure and the S also. I made a move this morning (0530 Central) to get out of the I...and back to G )probably effective Friday a.m. Hopefully today will get me over 3% total and beat that 1st dropoff syndrome...than I will watch the S fund to see if it has a tendency to run a little longer.

thanks,

Dukester

 

[Frizz B.]

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If you are using my differential system, don't worry, this market has happened almost every time. I traded at 283 and it is now down to 261. It has got as low as 235 and then bounced back to the 310-340's. If you believe that we are now in a down market, wait till the differential gets back to 280-290 and then jump into the G fund, this way you have not lost any shares of the S fund. If you believe that we are still going to have a good year, wait till the Differential gets to the 310-320 range, then go to the G fund. I am going to start to use the I fund for a while. Seems everytime that I switch to the S fund, the I fund has 2 to 3 days of better gains and then tappers off. So for the first 2 days of the change, I will move to the I fund and then move it to the S fund. See what happens in a couple of weeks.

Frizzb.

 

[Frizz B.]

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I'm not sure I agree in what Tom's comment said that it is to late to get out. This has been an eye opener. I am adding a new part to my system. I to believed that it has to turn around but how long can you wait. I has broke my low of the 235. so if the market starts out again with losses in it, I will be transferring to the G fund until the first sign of recovery. I still believe that it will come backm but I will give up some gains if that is what I have to do to stop the bleeding at this point.

So the next time that I am in a fund and it takes off the wrong way that I had anticipated, expecially the losing way and the differential is more than 30 pts from my range, I will make the move, and see what happens in the future.

What is the saying, "Sometimes you have to go backward to move forward" or something like that. It was said in the movie WHITE MEN CAN'T JUMP. "Sometimes you have tolose to win."

FrizzB.

 

[hunterklr]

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Frizz:

What is your e-mail address? The above address isn't working.

Ken

 

[tsptalk]

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Frizz B. wrote:

I'm not sure I agree in what Tom's comment said that it is to late to get out.

"Too late" was probably the wrong way to put that. I just meant that my indicators were so extremely oversold that I would be a buyer if I were out. So, since I was already in, there was no way I would move out at this point.

Tom

 

[Frizz B.]

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Email address is

vbfrizzb@comcast.net

I have sent to 2 people and have not heard from them if they did receive it or whether they had any questions on it.

Both mydifferentials say to play the market, the S to C is at 80, (it stayed above the 120 for such a long time did not know if it would come back to the 80's, which it did), and the S to F was low at 235 and has climbed since then, around 250. If everything goes to form the #'s should start to rise back to the (C) 110-120 and the (F) over 310, we will now see if my system holds water, it might now happen now but soon. The time of period for the change has been up to 29 days. In my own account, not the account that I use for this web site, I did change to the (I) 2 days ago. After I was asked the question about what I thought of the I fund, I went back to check some more #'s and noticed, that when Iswitched funds from the F or the G fund back to the S fund, the I fund (if thedifferential was lower than 35, usually outpreformed the S fund for the first 3 to 4 days and rose to a differentialbetween 40-50 and then the S fund would start to outpreform the I the rest of the way, and by time I changed back to the G or F, the S fundcame back to the 20 - 35 range.

So next time I make my switch back to the S or I from the G or F, and if the diff. islower than 35, I will use the I fund for the first 3 to 4 days and then switch to the S the rest of the way. See what happens.

In this account I am still 100% C fund.

 

[thinks]

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Frizz, I'll try emailing you again today as I tried before but got it returned back to me for undelivery. TIA.

It's really interesting reading about what your learning and how you continue to change and keep perfecting your system. I'm curious do you mean that you have more than one TSP?

 

[tsptalk]

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Frizz B. wrote:

In this account I am still 100% C fund.

When did you move to the C fund Frizz? Is this your real account or the model account? In your FrizzB Account the last transaction I see is 100% S on 4/29.

I am glad you added that "In this account I am still 100% C fund" at the bottom of your post because I have to admit Iget a bit confused by some of your posts and I'm not always sure what and when you are doingsomething. Perhaps you can make that part of each post, separate from your explanations... for example,
(Currently 100% C)

I do the same thing. I assume because I understand what I write, everybody will understand. Then I get a dozen emails asking me to explain what I meant.:?

Keep up the good work!

Tom

 

[Frizz B.]

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My appologies, if you notice the time it was early morning, just got up, still 100% S fund.

 

[Mr. Duke]

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Still 100% G....Got to see a little more positive action at this point bad days and good days are about even.....Granted the oversold positions look extremely tempting,however, I will continue to preserve capital and try not to make a buck in a negative market climate....Just like gambling at the blackjack table...sometimes when you're down you just have to call it a night and not try to get even......always itching to get back in though.....however, I have been sleeping extremely well lately.

Good luck to all....get some money back!!!!!

When is greenie speaking again?

 

[Frizz B.]

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Haven't posted for a while, haven't had much to work with, I changed at 283 and I am I still in the C fund, waiting for the differential to get above 283 and then I will decide which way to go.

Differential are now, based on the S to each fund

F - 247, C - 82, and the I - 46

Both the F and C and the I indicators say to be in the S fund. I am now using the I fund differential to decide whether I want to be in theS or I, when the diff starts to go below 30 I will start to look for the best time to be in the I fund and when the differential starts to go above 45 I will look for the best time go to the S fund. The differential has been going between a low of 5 and a high in the 60's since late December.

So for now I am still in the S fund and although my $'s have gone below my $100000 starting point. I am still above in my shares, and this is what I look for. When the shares prices start to go up. The more shares I have the more $'s you will make.

Frizz B.

 

[Frizz B.]

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Funny thing, I do not have any information on what the indices are, US money vs the world, so I have been reading info given. My differential #'s said it was time to get into the I yesterday, The differential was at 19, between the I and S funds. Before the trading deadline, the S fund was up significantly over the I fund, so I knew that the Differential would be lower that 19. I did not make my move because of the chatter on the I vs the S and C. Believe me, I blame no one but myself, it is my fault for not following the system that I created for myself. I was going to move this morning to the I fund, but with the upswing of the I and the down of the S, I did not.

My differential are 290 for the F fund, 111 for the C fund, and 19 for the I fund as of 05/26/2004. The I fund will probably be over 30 after today, which is the middle of the road, usually goes up to the mid 40's or over and then back down in the 5-20 range. When you are playing the S and the I funds this is a good range to watch and transfer between the 2 funds.

Next time I will follow my differential #'s and see what happens.

Frizz B.

 

[Frizz B.]

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Here are my #'s for the end of May F = 293, looking for 310 or better, C = 105, looking for 115 or better, I = 30, middle of the road, looking to get under 15.

These are the colors I use in my Excel, I do this to make easy access of what I am looking for. So right now I am sitting Comfortably in the S fund. I do see that quite a few people like to keeppercentages in different funds. I like to keep all in only one fund. Do or die, I guess, also it is easier to keep track of my shares. If the #'s do get a little higher, I will be moving everything into the G Fund from now on, instead of the F fund. I have tried the F fund twice and have lost both times. So my new rule of thumb, is when the #'s say to be aggressive, use the S Fund, or the I Fund, and when it the #'s say to get out of these funds, move to the G Fund. I have decide to stoptaking a gamble with the F Fund with the possibility of losing or gaining a little money, and be safe. If the downturn stays for a little while, I will pick up a point or two with the G fund. I will update later when the #'s tell me to.

FrizzB.

 

[Rolo]

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Frizz B. wrote:

Here are my #'s for the end of May F = 293, looking for 310 or better, C = 105, looking for 115 or better, I = 30, middle of the road, looking to get under 15.

If the #'s do get a little higher, I will be moving everything into the G Fund from now on, instead of the F fund.

So if any of these differentials rises past the upper threshold, then you move to G?

Then, whichever differential falls below the lower threshold, you move to that fund?

Meaning: You are in S now. Say the δ F rises to 312, you move to G. Later, the δ I falls to 14, you then move to the I fund and stay there until δ I is > 45?

[head spinnin' like a frizzb o]

 

[tsptalk]

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Frizz B. wrote:

Email address is

vbfrizzb@comcast.net

Frizz B. -
I just noticed that your email has been screwed up because of my emoticon code for :t. I never knew why you were adding that symbol to your address.How come you didn't bring it to my attention?

When you put in an email, it adds, "mailto:"in front of your address. Because my code for thumbs down was ":v", your email showed :twhere it said mailto:vbfrizzb@comcast.net.

Sorry about that!

 

[Frizz B.]

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No, I use the (F differential to tell me when I will move to either the (S or the I) or the G fund). When I am in the (S or the I) this is when I use the (S to the I differential)

Sorry Tom, (JOKE), I see numbers not words

 

[Frizz B.]

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[head spinnin' like a frizzb o]


Just a *note* spinnin like a (frizzb) would be frissbee, my name is Frizz (hair like an afro that has no control (very frizzy) and my last name starts with a (B) hence Frizz B.

Frizz B.

 

[Rolo]

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Frizz B. wrote:

Just a *note* spinnin like a (frizzb) would be frissbee, my name is Frizz (hair like an afro that has no control (very frizzy) and my last name starts with a (B) hence Frizz B.

It was supposed to be 'punny'.

And it would be Frisbee

<-- would make a nice avatar, eeeeh? huh? eh?



hehe...Now backto 'splainin' those things I don't understand: numbers...


[line]


Aw, thought I had it.

Attempt #2:

You are in S now.When the δ I < 15, you will move to G. Then, say δ F > 310, you move into S or I until δ I > 45..?

I hope that is not right, because if it is, I understand it less than I thought I had. :s

Am I the only slow kid in this class?