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Frizz B Account Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
imported post
Following recessionary periods, small caps tend to outperform because of low interest rates. As rates start to rise however, you will eventually see a shift to the larger cap stocks. Just keep an open mind about your "never play the C Fund" strategy.
Look how the small caps dominated in the years following the 1990-1991 recession. Then the large caps took over from 1994 to 1998.
http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html
Tom
Following recessionary periods, small caps tend to outperform because of low interest rates. As rates start to rise however, you will eventually see a shift to the larger cap stocks. Just keep an open mind about your "never play the C Fund" strategy.
Look how the small caps dominated in the years following the 1990-1991 recession. Then the large caps took over from 1994 to 1998.
http://www.tsptalk.com/returns/returns2.html
Tom
imported post
By the way, I'm trying to keep the actual Account threads clean by having only FrizzB's (or whoever else starts one) allocations and transfers in it. So please make comments in this "Frizz B Account Talk" thread. It might not work out this way but let's try for now.
Thanks!
Tom
Sure.I believe at one time Frizz said he was going to use $130,000 (I'm not sure if that was his own account balance, but I'd rather leave personal balances out of this anyway)so $100,000 (or $10,000 or $1,000) sounds like a good idea.Frizz B?
By the way, I'm trying to keep the actual Account threads clean by having only FrizzB's (or whoever else starts one) allocations and transfers in it. So please make comments in this "Frizz B Account Talk" thread. It might not work out this way but let's try for now.
Thanks!
Tom
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I noticed. I wish I can move the post, but I can't. I can only move entire topics to new forums. I can alwaysdelete the posts butit's usually a post of some worth.
You can send a private message asking if the poster ifwould mind cutting and pasting the message into the "Account Talk" topic, then they orI can delete the original post. But I think this is going to be tougher than I thought.
I noticed. I wish I can move the post, but I can't. I can only move entire topics to new forums. I can alwaysdelete the posts butit's usually a post of some worth.
You can send a private message asking if the poster ifwould mind cutting and pasting the message into the "Account Talk" topic, then they orI can delete the original post. But I think this is going to be tougher than I thought.
imported post
I moved my funds onMarch 31, 2004 from the I fundto theS fund ($100.000)Then Iadjusted all my funds shares tomake each Fund equal, I like to start with equal amts to see how my fund is doing compared to the rest in the same time span. I am looking to increase my shares in my accounts. The more shares I have the more money I have. The date is April 1
F Fund = Shares 9775.17 x 10.23 = $100000
C Fund = Shares 8396.30 x 11.91 = $100000
S Fund = Shares 7501.88 x 13.33 = $100000
I Fund = Shares 7347.54 x 12.61 = $100000 with my point differential changing from 310 to 331 in the F Fund & 142 in the C fund, my #'s said to change to the F Fund which I did Friday April 2 to start Monday in the F Fund, as you will see I gained in Shares, I used the S Fund of $100825 And divided it by the share price to get my shares in each account and start fresh.
F Fund = Shares 9775.17 x 10.13 = $ 99022/ $100825 / 10.13 = 9953.13 F shares
C Fund = Shares 8396.30 x 12.01 = $100840 /$100825 / 12.01 = 8395.10C shares
S Fund = Shares 7501.88 x 13.44 =S shares stayed the same
I Fund = Shares 7347.54 x 13.60 = $ 99927/ $100825 / 13.60 = 7413.62. I shares
Hope this explains it better, I will update this on Monday again 100 % F fund for me. I believe the stock market will take a breather and give back some of its gains. I will see now if my number system is worth anything, all I have heard from everyone else is the market will still gain.
Enjoy, FrizzB
I moved my funds onMarch 31, 2004 from the I fundto theS fund ($100.000)Then Iadjusted all my funds shares tomake each Fund equal, I like to start with equal amts to see how my fund is doing compared to the rest in the same time span. I am looking to increase my shares in my accounts. The more shares I have the more money I have. The date is April 1
F Fund = Shares 9775.17 x 10.23 = $100000
C Fund = Shares 8396.30 x 11.91 = $100000
S Fund = Shares 7501.88 x 13.33 = $100000
I Fund = Shares 7347.54 x 12.61 = $100000 with my point differential changing from 310 to 331 in the F Fund & 142 in the C fund, my #'s said to change to the F Fund which I did Friday April 2 to start Monday in the F Fund, as you will see I gained in Shares, I used the S Fund of $100825 And divided it by the share price to get my shares in each account and start fresh.
F Fund = Shares 9775.17 x 10.13 = $ 99022/ $100825 / 10.13 = 9953.13 F shares
C Fund = Shares 8396.30 x 12.01 = $100840 /$100825 / 12.01 = 8395.10C shares
S Fund = Shares 7501.88 x 13.44 =S shares stayed the same
I Fund = Shares 7347.54 x 13.60 = $ 99927/ $100825 / 13.60 = 7413.62. I shares
Hope this explains it better, I will update this on Monday again 100 % F fund for me. I believe the stock market will take a breather and give back some of its gains. I will see now if my number system is worth anything, all I have heard from everyone else is the market will still gain.
Enjoy, FrizzB
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I understand the math but I don't agree with your statement that more shares = more money. Like my example above, if you've got 10,000 shares at $10 and I've got 9,000 shares at $12 then I've got more money. What if the F fund were to start declining. And meanwhile the C and the S were both increasing. If you wanted to sell your F and buy some C or S you would have to buy less shares. Would you stay in the F as it continued to decline simply because you couldn't buy into something else at more shares?
Anyone else have any thoughts on this?
Dave
I understand the math but I don't agree with your statement that more shares = more money. Like my example above, if you've got 10,000 shares at $10 and I've got 9,000 shares at $12 then I've got more money. What if the F fund were to start declining. And meanwhile the C and the S were both increasing. If you wanted to sell your F and buy some C or S you would have to buy less shares. Would you stay in the F as it continued to decline simply because you couldn't buy into something else at more shares?
Anyone else have any thoughts on this?
Dave
.imported post
One more time, I started with theS fund and had 100 shares at 12.00 a share. I would have $1200.00 at the same time I wouldcalcutate that Ihad120 shares of F fund at 10.00 a share. The S fund went up to $13.00 a share, I still had 100 shares. I would now have $1300.00 and the F fundstayed at $10 a share. So now I make the change tothe F fund because my diffenential tells me to. So I divide the $1300 that I have in the S fund by the$10 a sharethat the F fund is at that day. Now instead of the 120 shares in the F fund I start with 130 shares which equals the $1300 dollars that I had in the S fund, now both funds are equal again after each transaction. Now the stock market drops, which has been the case since I have been tracking this. So theF fund goes up to 10.50 a share and the S fund drops to 12.75. The F fund went to $1365, and the S fund drop to $1275. Now the # differential says to go back to the S fund. I take the $1365 that I have in the F fund and divide that by the share price in the S fund $1365 / $12.75 = 107 in the S fund. I picked up 7 share. I have in my account $1365, if I had stayed in the S fund I would only have 100 shares at $12.75 = $1275. Now that I have move back to the S fund I start each fund out equally in shares and start again.
As I asked, do you have the statements of every transaction that you have made, when you moved back to the Fund that you started with do you have more shares in that fund than when you left it. If you did you made money.
I can't say that everyone of my transactions is right. I have to keep adjusting my point differential, I have already since I first started. I could at this point, by moving into the F fund, lose money if the Stock Market keeps on rallying. At some point I will say to myself that the differential has to be changed and hopefully get out without to much damage. Nobody has a fool proof system. But if the stock market takes a breather and gives back some of its gains, and the F fund stays the same or rises, when I move back to the S fund I will have more shares than when I started, that is my goal is to pick up shares, the more shares you have the more money you have.
Frizzb
Like Tom said, if you are not doing this on a excel spreadsheet you might not really get it until you do.
[align=center]A PICTURE IS WORTH A 1000 WORDS[/align]
One more time, I started with theS fund and had 100 shares at 12.00 a share. I would have $1200.00 at the same time I wouldcalcutate that Ihad120 shares of F fund at 10.00 a share. The S fund went up to $13.00 a share, I still had 100 shares. I would now have $1300.00 and the F fundstayed at $10 a share. So now I make the change tothe F fund because my diffenential tells me to. So I divide the $1300 that I have in the S fund by the$10 a sharethat the F fund is at that day. Now instead of the 120 shares in the F fund I start with 130 shares which equals the $1300 dollars that I had in the S fund, now both funds are equal again after each transaction. Now the stock market drops, which has been the case since I have been tracking this. So theF fund goes up to 10.50 a share and the S fund drops to 12.75. The F fund went to $1365, and the S fund drop to $1275. Now the # differential says to go back to the S fund. I take the $1365 that I have in the F fund and divide that by the share price in the S fund $1365 / $12.75 = 107 in the S fund. I picked up 7 share. I have in my account $1365, if I had stayed in the S fund I would only have 100 shares at $12.75 = $1275. Now that I have move back to the S fund I start each fund out equally in shares and start again.
As I asked, do you have the statements of every transaction that you have made, when you moved back to the Fund that you started with do you have more shares in that fund than when you left it. If you did you made money.
I can't say that everyone of my transactions is right. I have to keep adjusting my point differential, I have already since I first started. I could at this point, by moving into the F fund, lose money if the Stock Market keeps on rallying. At some point I will say to myself that the differential has to be changed and hopefully get out without to much damage. Nobody has a fool proof system. But if the stock market takes a breather and gives back some of its gains, and the F fund stays the same or rises, when I move back to the S fund I will have more shares than when I started, that is my goal is to pick up shares, the more shares you have the more money you have.
Frizzb
Like Tom said, if you are not doing this on a excel spreadsheet you might not really get it until you do.
[align=center]A PICTURE IS WORTH A 1000 WORDS[/align]
imported post
when you moved back to the Fund that you started with do you have more shares in that fund than when you left it. If you did you made money.
Not true. Example. You've got 10,000 of S at $12 a share for $120,000. You moved it all into C which is at $10 share which gets you 12,000 shares. While you are in C, it drops to $9 ($108,000)and the S drops to $10. You sell the C and buy back the S. You now have 10,800 shares of S (more shares) but it is worth less ($108,000). Contrary to your statement above you have more shares but you did not make money. The fact that you have more shares is the result of you making money, not the cause of it. Your making money because the value of your shares is increasing, not the number of your shares.
Dave
when you moved back to the Fund that you started with do you have more shares in that fund than when you left it. If you did you made money.
Not true. Example. You've got 10,000 of S at $12 a share for $120,000. You moved it all into C which is at $10 share which gets you 12,000 shares. While you are in C, it drops to $9 ($108,000)and the S drops to $10. You sell the C and buy back the S. You now have 10,800 shares of S (more shares) but it is worth less ($108,000). Contrary to your statement above you have more shares but you did not make money. The fact that you have more shares is the result of you making money, not the cause of it. Your making money because the value of your shares is increasing, not the number of your shares.
Dave
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I see what Frizz is saying now butDave and I talk % gain / losswhere Frizz talks shares.
Say I'm100% in the S fund and currently up 2% for the year.
If I believe the market will fall I'll decide to get out and go into 100% into the G fund.
The market and S fund do fall so I goback to the S fund. I'm still up 2% for the year (assumingthe G fund did not have a gain) and my balance has stayed the same.
This is where Frizz says he picked up shares (which he did) but his balance stayed the same.
Dave and I just say we are still up 2% as our balance also stayed the same, although we actually picked up shares also. I just never look at it like that because whether you have 100 shares or 10,000, it's percentages that determine your return.
I see what Frizz is saying now butDave and I talk % gain / losswhere Frizz talks shares.
Say I'm100% in the S fund and currently up 2% for the year.
If I believe the market will fall I'll decide to get out and go into 100% into the G fund.
The market and S fund do fall so I goback to the S fund. I'm still up 2% for the year (assumingthe G fund did not have a gain) and my balance has stayed the same.
This is where Frizz says he picked up shares (which he did) but his balance stayed the same.
Dave and I just say we are still up 2% as our balance also stayed the same, although we actually picked up shares also. I just never look at it like that because whether you have 100 shares or 10,000, it's percentages that determine your return.
imported post
The fact that you have more shares is the result of you making money, not the cause of it. Your making money because the value of your shares is increasing, not the number of your shares.
When the value of your share goes up you multiply that by how many shares you have. The value of your shares are a constant, it might go up or down according to the market but you multiply that by how many shares you have, if you have more shares the more money you have in your account. When you change from one account to another (100%) you still have the same value in cash, but the shares is different. If you make money and you change to another account your shares change.
PLEASE, TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR HISTORY OF TRADES AND IF YOU MADE MONEY OR LOST MONEY IN, I DON'T CARE WHICH FUND YOU ARE USING, THE SHARES ARE NOT THE SAME. YOU EITHER GAINED OR LOST SHARES FROM YOUR LAST TRANSACTIONS.LOOK AT THE SHARE PRICES ON THES DATES AND START WITH A $100000 ACCOUNT AND WATCH THE SHARES INCREASE.
Lets start with Jan 26 the Differential was 309 and I was in the S fund and changed to the F fund
DateFund Share Price xShares = $$Amt./ New fund share price = Shares (Diff)
J 27 S13.18x 7587 = $100.000 /F -10.19= 9911 (309)
J 30 F10.07 x 9911 =$ 99801/S -12.74= 7834(285)
F 12 S13.21 x 7834= $103,483 /F -10.12=10226 (309)
F20 F10.13 x 10226 = $103,586 / S - 13.02= 7956 (289)
M 2 S13.27 x7956 = $105574 / F - 10.16= 10391(311)
M 10 F10.28 x10391 = $106822 / S - 12.97= 8236 (269)
A 2 S 13.44 x8236 = $110692 / F - 10.13= 10927 (331)
My differential #'s showed me the day before the trade to make the trade. This shows that I started with 7587 shares of S Fund and increased it to 8236 shares of SFund in a little over 2 months a gain of 649 shares of S Fund. The F Fund started out at 9911 shares and increased to 10927 shares, an increase of 1016 shares of F Fund since Jan 30.
If I had just left my Funds alone S would be 7587x 13.44 = $101972, I increased that to $110,692 with my Differential System, a difference of $8720.
I do believe that nothing is a guarentee, but so far this seems to work for me. This will be my last explanation of this system. To me, it is hard to believe that I am the only one who can see this. I will keep my account up to date and we will see what happens.
[align=center][size=[font="Times New Roman"]GO F FUND[/font]][/size][/align]
To Tom, your comment on the G to what I see in the F
If I believe the market will fall I'll decide to get out and go into 100% into the G fund.
If you look at the Differential, and if you believe the market will fall the F Fund has gone up almost evertime in that period of the fall of the C, S, and I. I will play the F Fund and not the G. I do believe that everyone is entitled to their own opinion even if they or I am wrong.
The fact that you have more shares is the result of you making money, not the cause of it. Your making money because the value of your shares is increasing, not the number of your shares.
When the value of your share goes up you multiply that by how many shares you have. The value of your shares are a constant, it might go up or down according to the market but you multiply that by how many shares you have, if you have more shares the more money you have in your account. When you change from one account to another (100%) you still have the same value in cash, but the shares is different. If you make money and you change to another account your shares change.
PLEASE, TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR HISTORY OF TRADES AND IF YOU MADE MONEY OR LOST MONEY IN, I DON'T CARE WHICH FUND YOU ARE USING, THE SHARES ARE NOT THE SAME. YOU EITHER GAINED OR LOST SHARES FROM YOUR LAST TRANSACTIONS.LOOK AT THE SHARE PRICES ON THES DATES AND START WITH A $100000 ACCOUNT AND WATCH THE SHARES INCREASE.
Lets start with Jan 26 the Differential was 309 and I was in the S fund and changed to the F fund
DateFund Share Price xShares = $$Amt./ New fund share price = Shares (Diff)
J 27 S13.18x 7587 = $100.000 /F -10.19= 9911 (309)
J 30 F10.07 x 9911 =$ 99801/S -12.74= 7834(285)
F 12 S13.21 x 7834= $103,483 /F -10.12=10226 (309)
F20 F10.13 x 10226 = $103,586 / S - 13.02= 7956 (289)
M 2 S13.27 x7956 = $105574 / F - 10.16= 10391(311)
M 10 F10.28 x10391 = $106822 / S - 12.97= 8236 (269)
A 2 S 13.44 x8236 = $110692 / F - 10.13= 10927 (331)
My differential #'s showed me the day before the trade to make the trade. This shows that I started with 7587 shares of S Fund and increased it to 8236 shares of SFund in a little over 2 months a gain of 649 shares of S Fund. The F Fund started out at 9911 shares and increased to 10927 shares, an increase of 1016 shares of F Fund since Jan 30.
If I had just left my Funds alone S would be 7587x 13.44 = $101972, I increased that to $110,692 with my Differential System, a difference of $8720.
I do believe that nothing is a guarentee, but so far this seems to work for me. This will be my last explanation of this system. To me, it is hard to believe that I am the only one who can see this. I will keep my account up to date and we will see what happens.
[align=center][size=[font="Times New Roman"]GO F FUND[/font]][/size][/align]
To Tom, your comment on the G to what I see in the F
If I believe the market will fall I'll decide to get out and go into 100% into the G fund.
If you look at the Differential, and if you believe the market will fall the F Fund has gone up almost evertime in that period of the fall of the C, S, and I. I will play the F Fund and not the G. I do believe that everyone is entitled to their own opinion even if they or I am wrong.
imported post
This system cannot work. Although the value of your account is the product of the number of shares and the price/share, it's the price/share that varies daily - it's not a constant-
the number of shares in a fund changes when you reallocate your account, but the account value does not change then.
You need to re-examine your trading concept
This system cannot work. Although the value of your account is the product of the number of shares and the price/share, it's the price/share that varies daily - it's not a constant-
the number of shares in a fund changes when you reallocate your account, but the account value does not change then.
You need to re-examine your trading concept
imported post
I should not have used the word constant for the share price, it does go up and down each day, that is why we have more or less money in our account. But whenever you make a trade to and from Funds your shares either increase or decrease also, if you made money your shares will increase. I don't know how you can say what I'm doing doesn't work, I am up over 8 % for the year, how are you doing higher than 8% or less.
I believe what my system does is help me decide when profit sharing or the market corrections are going to happen. Nothing is for sure, but my #'s say the that we will in the near future the stock market will take its profit sharing, the stocks will go lower and the F Fund will gain. My differential is 331 now, and after today probably will go higher than that. So for today, I lose, but I do not play a day to day system, My trades have lasted up to a month before my next trade, and so far it has worked for me. If in the next 2 weeks the market still goes higher and my differential # soars, I will change my #'s again and deal with it, sooner or later the market will correct itself. I still believe we are in a bear market and looking for the stocks to keep rising, what I'm hoping for is that I can catch the market when it makes its corrections for profit taking.
Frizz B.
I should not have used the word constant for the share price, it does go up and down each day, that is why we have more or less money in our account. But whenever you make a trade to and from Funds your shares either increase or decrease also, if you made money your shares will increase. I don't know how you can say what I'm doing doesn't work, I am up over 8 % for the year, how are you doing higher than 8% or less.
I believe what my system does is help me decide when profit sharing or the market corrections are going to happen. Nothing is for sure, but my #'s say the that we will in the near future the stock market will take its profit sharing, the stocks will go lower and the F Fund will gain. My differential is 331 now, and after today probably will go higher than that. So for today, I lose, but I do not play a day to day system, My trades have lasted up to a month before my next trade, and so far it has worked for me. If in the next 2 weeks the market still goes higher and my differential # soars, I will change my #'s again and deal with it, sooner or later the market will correct itself. I still believe we are in a bear market and looking for the stocks to keep rising, what I'm hoping for is that I can catch the market when it makes its corrections for profit taking.
Frizz B.
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Frizz - Did you even read my last post? I'm not dissing your system. In fact, there are parts of it that I think have some merit. I'm talking about your assertion that if your shares increase, you make money. That is wrong. Look at my example above. This is not my opinion, this is a fact.
Dave
P.S. Not that it matters for much, but I am also at about8% this year
Frizz - Did you even read my last post? I'm not dissing your system. In fact, there are parts of it that I think have some merit. I'm talking about your assertion that if your shares increase, you make money. That is wrong. Look at my example above. This is not my opinion, this is a fact.
Dave
P.S. Not that it matters for much, but I am also at about8% this year
imported post
Last edited on Mon Apr 5th, 2004 08:49 am by Wheels
Dave, this is all your last message read. Please send your message again on the shares. Anyways, thanks, I was reffering to Eukrate who said my system can't work, and Tom, I did mean the bull market, thanks. Well the stocks went up today, I lost, but I have time to wait.
Dave, just realized you are from N.H., I grew up for 15 years in Portsmouth, N.H. where most of my family lives.
Frizz B.
Last edited on Mon Apr 5th, 2004 08:49 am by Wheels
Dave, this is all your last message read. Please send your message again on the shares. Anyways, thanks, I was reffering to Eukrate who said my system can't work, and Tom, I did mean the bull market, thanks. Well the stocks went up today, I lost, but I have time to wait.
Dave, just realized you are from N.H., I grew up for 15 years in Portsmouth, N.H. where most of my family lives.
Frizz B.
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This is the example from an earlier post.
Example. You've got 10,000 of S at $12 a share for $120,000. You moved it all into C which is at $10 share which gets you 12,000 shares. While you are in C, it drops to $9 ($108,000)and the S drops to $10. You sell the C and buy back the S. You now have 10,800 shares of S (more shares) but it is worth less ($108,000). Contrary to your statement above you have more shares but you did not make money.
This is the example from an earlier post.
Example. You've got 10,000 of S at $12 a share for $120,000. You moved it all into C which is at $10 share which gets you 12,000 shares. While you are in C, it drops to $9 ($108,000)and the S drops to $10. You sell the C and buy back the S. You now have 10,800 shares of S (more shares) but it is worth less ($108,000). Contrary to your statement above you have more shares but you did not make money.
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