F Fund where will it go ?

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Re: good question!

Hi amoeba,
1st, welcome to the threads. No one has certain answers of course. F has been OK, since, well Mar. 11th, made some profit. Anyway, its the strange deals the Fed, as apparently the PPT is now working - buying banks "riskier Mortage Bonds issues", etc. - sure smells of "bailouts" to me! Strange thing though, is today market seemed to like it.
(F went up) Kinda a mystery, wrapped inside an enigma? :D

Anyway, generally if markets are up, then F goes down, and visa-versa. Right now/today though, F went up - kinda strange (but I won't complain.) I think what might be happening is smart money is realizing times are bad, and gonna get worse - therfore folks buy Bonds. Evidence? -the Fed rate cuts and all the other PPT activity to manipulate holding up stocks. Bottomline I think were OK - wildcard is the stange kind of "bailouts" that the Fed is now running recently (big today).
Maybe our resident experts; "350Z", or "Nnuut" will share their opinions on this. (I know 350 went to F a couple days ago - which makes me feel some degree of comfort).:)
VR
amoeba said:
Hmmm - Hessian and I think alike; that's just about where I'm at (and have been at least 50% F since last July); been watching the fluctuations and its been building on the 50 day MA without crossing it significantly, but it does seem close to a 2 yr high. I'm wondering the same thing, and really don't know the answer. I actually pared down to 60% F recently.

There are times you can see rotations between stock and bond funds (or commodities) in trimtabs and such, but F has been a buy and hold for quite awhile; and a good one. I don't see much in the numbers (employment, philly) that supported today's C rally - there could be something else going on with options expirations or who know's what? (is there that much dumb money out there?).

Next week should be interesting. I guess we'll see.
Click to expand...
 
So, what now? I'd still like to think the F Fund is a good place to be but I sure can't tell right now...is it possible we really have seen the bottom? I'm having a hard time believing that is the case but this rally is hard to ignore.
 
Boy, discussions across the board have dropped off dramatically...sure getting quite the closer we get to 3/31. :blink:
 
Braveheart said:
Well I got back in today for a quick 2 cents at $12.16 and went to C & S Funds. Might go back to F Fund for Friday.
Click to expand...

I'm glad you're doing well. I sure would have loved to have been able to ride some of this stock rally but I'm trying hard NOT to get the dreaded letter...probably blown it anyway since my third move was back to the F Fund. I guess time will tell....:blink:
 
Treasuries Dip on Jobless Claims

NEW YORK - Treasurys fell Thursday as a better-than-expected reading on unemployment and tame demand from investment banks for a $75 billion credit auction led investors to pare back their holdings in safe government securities.....

Thursday afternoon, the Federal Reserve put $75 billion in credit up for auction to investment banks. Total bids submitted were $86.1 billion and $75 billion of those were accepted, and the "stop-out rate" _ the lowest accepted bid rate _ came in at 0.33 percent, up from the 0.25 percent minimum bid but lower than many investors anticipated.
"The market took it as a sign of lower stress in the financial system," Wallace said.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 23/32 to 99 20/32, and yielded 3.55 percent, up from 3.46 percent late Wednesday, according to BGCantor Market Data. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.
The 2-year note fell 21/32 to 100 2/32, with a yield of 1.72 percent, up from 1.62 percent late Wednesday.

The 30-year long bond fell 1 8/32 to 99 26/32, with a yield of 4.39 percent, up from 4.33 percent.

Treasurys have been under some pressure because further deterioration in the economy could mean more interest rate cuts. Lower rates normally encourage bond buying, but recently have been raising worries about inflation, which erodes the value of long-term bonds over time....
http://www.cnbc.com/id/5990199/for/cnbc/
 
Tomncath said:
I'm glad you're doing well. I sure would have loved to have been able to ride some of this stock rally but I'm trying hard NOT to get the dreaded letter...probably blown it anyway since my third move was back to the F Fund. I guess time will tell....:blink:
Click to expand...

No it was a bad move I should gone to the G Fund got smoked in the C & S Funds which was my fault. I should have known at the end of the month, quarter every institution is going to clear their bad news so this could be a very.......very bad move and tomorrow I think we are going to drop below 12,000. I hope not but for those in the G Fund or the F Fund I wish i was there right now.:worried:
 
Braveheart said:
No it was a bad move I should gone to the G Fund got smoked in the C & S Funds which was my fault. I should have known at the end of the month, quarter every institution is going to clear their bad news so this could be a very.......very bad move and tomorrow I think we are going to drop below 12,000. I hope not but for those in the G Fund or the F Fund I wish i was there right now.:worried:
Click to expand...


Sorry, did you see this post over on Corepuncher's thread? This girls been right on recently, if she's right I think we're headed down big time, just a question of how soon. What do you think?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/27/news...ion=2008032713
 
Tomncath said:
Sorry, did you see this post over on Corepuncher's thread? This girls been right on recently, if she's right I think we're headed down big time, just a question of how soon. What do you think?

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/27/news...ion=2008032713
Click to expand...

After seeing all the moves the Fed made yet the Market is in trouble because lenders won't lend so the Fed cuts rates and yet to buy a house has gone up even those with pristine credit for a 30 year are getting quotes of 6.25% with 10% down. That doesn't count the millions who are in the trap where the value of the home went from $600K to $300K and they can't do anything. No where to move so we are stuck because the housing market was so overpriced and then the Fed tried everything but it looks beyond repair. Iraq, Housing, Oil etc = market crash I am out tomorrow and taking my losses.
 
F fund was up .16%...when the AGG was down .16% today. I do not understand how to estimate the F fund!

I"m not complaining since I"m in F thought :cheesy:
 
up from here. this recent rally in stocks is dumb money and short covering. I'm accumulating F
 
Corepuncher said:
F fund was up .16%...when the AGG was down .16% today. I do not understand how to estimate the F fund!
I"m not complaining since I"m in F thought :cheesy:
Click to expand...

Similar to the EFA, the AGG is a ETF which reflects a close representation
of the F-Fund. Just as a Mutual Fund will, the AGG has expenses and fees
which may alter the returns. Just like the I-Funds (EFA) but no where
near as dramatic as the currency and FV issues that the EFA encounter.

Today however, we saw a +.08 TSP Cent difference in their return.
Just as you stated, its hard to understand and that is exactly why I made
the comments concerning the F-Fund in Squalebears Acc't Talk Thread.
Check it out when you get a minute.
 
One big factor could be dividend payments. AGG makes monthly distributions of income (while they are retained and added to the F fund net asset values) that should result in monthly divergences from the F fund's fair value. It's possible that AGG went ex on the day they were off (that would be about the right amount to cover March interest payments).
 
Also keep in mind that the traded prices of AGG can deviate (although usually the deviation is slight) from the NAV and the F fund's NAV should be similar to the NAV of the AGG which may or may not move with small price changes.
 
I think the F Fund is about to see some gains beginning Friday right through next week. $12.12 might move to that $12.23 mark again if this market drops and it could easily. Usually at $12.20 it drops so not much room for play here. :nuts:
 
Braveheart said:
I think the F Fund is about to see some gains beginning Friday right through next week. $12.12 might move to that $12.23 mark again if this market drops and it could easily. Usually at $12.20 it drops so not much room for play here. :nuts:
Click to expand...

I still expect the F-Fund will have Lower Gains/Greater Loses. For all
the same reasons which you guys have pointed out and Barclays.
 
The tremendous gain in the F-Fund over it's reflective AGG on April 1st
put the F-Fund in (what I call) a deficit. The AGG is currently up .95%.
I hope I'm wrong about this, however, there may be a strong possibility
that my previous guess of lower/gains may hit this fund today. At least
half of the .15 TSP Cent (IOU) within the F-Fund will probably be made
up with such a strong gain in the AGG. Of coarse, that is as of 11:07am.
We have a long day ahead of us and anything could happen.
:confused:
 
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