F Fund where will it go ?

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This is a tough call yet once it hits $12.24 it drops. Last high was $12.23 then it dropped. I am 100% G looking for that penny Monday. I don't trust this market so IMO there is nothing to rally on. People jump in on one good report from GE today sweet (HUGE RALLY) but that is one company how many left the market turned off by false data, rumors. Big deal if AOL and Yahoo merge it's almost comical. Every bank is in trouble, people are losing jobs, their homes, the War, Health Care and all is right today on a good report from 1 out of 25,000 companies.

I thought about getting back in for this one or two day rally and would not make the move. The only fund that is a safe play is the G Fund. Best of Luck
 
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Braveheart said:
This is a tough call
Click to expand...

You got that right. I'm in the F-Fund for balance and
not to make any sizable gains. It's just to hard to get
a grasp on it's direction and too little return for the
effort. Sometimes the G-Penny is worth a heck of a
lot more when all funds drop at once.
:D
 
squalebear said:
You got that right. I'm in the F-Fund for balance and
not to make any sizable gains. It's just to hard to get
a grasp on it's direction and too little return for the
effort. Sometimes the G-Penny is worth a heck of a
lot more when all funds drop at once.
:D
Click to expand...

Well today the F Fund should get back anything it lost yesterday. Next week earnings are out and if GE is going down and is one of the best run if not the #1 best run companies that is diversified on Wall St. the others are in trouble.
 
I was holding in G Fund until I saw the GE Report and the panic sell so going against the tide 50 S Fund and 50 C Fund for Monday !!!

Since the market dropped 260 today on low volume people are not moving, the big sell was GE and no one really sold in a panic their other stocks etc. If that were the case it would have dropped 500+ but it held showing strength.
 
Hey found an awesome chart -appreciate some help on its interpretaton -a little beyond me, -does it suggest F-fund (Yields I assume) should continue going up?? OR, is it due for a reversal??)
Chart does seem revealing!!!):

View attachment 3770
 
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ou81200 said:
Three times in three months it has went to around 103.50 only to retreat into the 101-101.50 range. We are getting close to that now.

I do agree that there is still some potential gain in this run. My guess is 1-2 days if the market complies appropriately.
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but if you plot the last 6 months you'll see that the resistence on that retreat is rising, to 101.6 recently (last friday). I see it going up some more - will be interesting to see if it breaks the upper bound.
 
amoeba said:
but if you plot the last 6 months you'll see that the resistence on that retreat is rising, to 101.6 recently (last friday). I see it going up some more - will be interesting to see if it breaks the upper bound.
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I thought the F Fund would drop today but it remained at $12.15 some strange things going on with this fund the past 3 days.
 
Braveheart said:
I thought the F Fund would drop today but it remained at $12.15 some strange things going on with this fund the past 3 days.
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I agree - I've noticed it also. "Fair valuation" only applies to the I-fund, right? :confused: Interesting, and a little confusing.
 
TSPinWV said:
I agree - I've noticed it also. "Fair valuation" only applies to the I-fund, right? :confused: Interesting, and a little confusing.
Click to expand...

Let me add to the confusion a little bit;

Just as the TSP Funds seek to reflect the returns of the Index they represent, ie.....C-Fund = S&P500 the F-Fund must do the same. The Lehman Bros. US Aggregate Index is the Index that the F-Fund aspires to reflect. Also known as the (LBA Index). In order to track such an index during the open market, many have found "AGG" the best for such purposes. I've been tracking the AGG for a couple years now. Just as I have been tracking the I-Fund through "EFA".

With that being said, I've found the following holds true;

The C Fund consistantly reflects the daily returns of the S&P 500 on a daily basis with minor differences between the two.

The S Fund returns vary from time to time in comparison to the DWCPF, either up or down, but will always seek out the close refection of the Wilshire 4500 Index on a YTD basis.

The I Fund has a whole gambit of things that result in wild differences from the EFA. "Please see the I-Fund Thread for further details".

The F Fund results have been a mixture of the C & S Fund fluxuations. The fact that its goal to reflect the LBA Index "MUST" be accomplished is the only constant over the last three days. When comparing the AGG vs. F-Fund spread since 1/1/2008, the range has been between -.03 and - 17 TSP Cents. Right now its holding at a very consistant -.11 TSP cent overpayment. To make that sound easier, lets just say that the F-Fund YTD returns have been up between .85% - .95% over and above the AGG YTD returns. At the F-Funds current share price, thats a range of -.10 and -.11 TSP cents. As of the close of business for 4/23 the AGG is up +0.86% YTD. On the other hand, the F-Fund is up 1.80% YTD. Before the end of the year, Barclays must manage to bring these to closer, in order to respectfully reflect one another. So maybe the F-Fund does have something similar to FV going on, but what it is, I'm still not sure.

Boy, that was information overkill, sorry about that. To check and see what I've been yammering about, click on this link and compare the Index Results vs. the TSP Fund Results, if what I was saying didn't hold true for every fund in the TSP, then you would see huge differences. But you don't. Check It Out; http://www.tsp.gov/rates/returns-tsp.html

Thank you for being patient, we now continue with your normally scheduled program.:nuts:
 
Nice summary. I had the same questions about F fund performance. Thanks for taking the time to write it up with current yr performance comparisons.
Steve
 
[FONT=&quot]This (for me) was an interesting read. Linked to it from the Mortgage Implosion page.

[/FONT]http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2008/04/no-mr-bondi-exprct-you-to-die.html
[FONT=&quot]
A few of Macro Mans other blogs kind of struck note with me as well, Euro/Dollar discussion, energy and more.

The sky may be falling over this house, but if I were to sum up my feelings, other than those that are timing the recent hops and shorting at just the right time, safe haven doesn't exist anywhere except for the G fund in the near future.
No experience what so ever on this end, but the type of trading that is occurring in the market now is beyond my comprehension. Banks are lending at lower rates to each other than the cost for them to secure the funds. Ignorantly, I look at that as the next real-estate fall out, pyramid schemes only last so long. Someone will make out, others will loose. Only bright side I read was one bloggers supported details that the Euro/Dollar deficit may begin to change around next fall, but still wasn't willing to do anything long on his opinion. Italy and Spain, depending on whose information you ingested, seem to be in for so troubled times soon as well.
(statements derived from how I interpreted what was posted).

Any, thought it a good link, the blogs surely explain what I just tried to say much better. :)
[/FONT]
 
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Rustynutt said:
Only bright side I read was one bloggers supported details that the Euro/Dollar deficit may begin to change around next fall, but still wasn't willing to do anything long on his opinion.
Click to expand...

If the Fed opts to cut .25, it shouldn't have much of an effect on the $USD. If the Fed decides to take a pause, get ready for a dollar bounce. I'm expecting the next wave of US Government intervention to take place in the Dollar and it's impact on the commodity bubble. The G7 indicated that they are willing to intervene should the Dollar slip further.

"Government intervention." I can see the doom and gloomers crying and whining about it now. They think they've got it all figured out in the comfy, cozy Gold/Commodity funds and aren't going to be happy when the bubbles bursts. IMO, it's begun to crack.

It's not a matter of if the Dollar rallies, it's a matter of when. When it does, it should take down commodities and every safe haven with it's advance. That should force a few folks off the lilly pad.
 
I'm not so sure, Braveheart. Our usual foreign customers don't seem to be buying. FED needs to show that they aren't going to give into the temptation of lowering interest rates with the dollar dropping like gravity.
 
Re: Estimating F

RPM said:
Does anyone know the thread with the formula to estimate F? TIA
Click to expand...

Based upon the close at 4:00 pm the F Fund should be $12.21 + 8 cents

Based upon the close at 3:00 pm the F Fund should be $12.19 + 6 cents

It will depend on if the Bond Market did not close at 3:00 pm but if it did the 2 cents would carry over. These are my estimates using the closest numbers with the agg vs. the TSP F Fund

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
 
Re: Estimating F

Braveheart said:
Based upon the close at 4:00 pm the F Fund should be $12.21 + 8 cents

Based upon the close at 3:00 pm the F Fund should be $12.19 + 6 cents

It will depend on if the Bond Market did not close at 3:00 pm but if it did the 2 cents would carry over. These are my estimates using the closest numbers with the agg vs. the TSP F Fund

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=...=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Click to expand...

Well they used the 3:00 PM Close and it was $12.18 + 5 cents that is a good day. We should start tomorrow in a good spot.
 
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