Exnavyew's Account Talk

[Beester15]

So...this means the stocks will go up even more?!?!:blink:

 

[exnavyew]

[h=1]Coronavirus: A visual guide to the economic impact[/h]https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-eight-charts-shaken-economies-154858382.html

 

[exnavyew]

IMHO the 'crash' is coming and it's only a matter of when. COVID has done so much damage both in human misery and to the economy it seems almost inevitable that a day of reckoning is coming. Don't have a clue when but IMHO it's coming.
Keeping my powder dry in TSP.

[h=1]‘Don’t be fooled!’ A 40% drop could hit by next year after this bear-market rally fades, veteran economist warns[/h]
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...eran-economist-warns-2020-04-30?mod=home-page

 

[exnavyew]

Barring the unforeseen it seems like it's gonna some time to conquer COVID19:

[h=1]Trump wants to deliver 300 million doses of coronavirus vaccine by the end of the year. Is that even possible?[/h]
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-wa...the-year-is-that-even-possible-141124695.html

 

[exnavyew]

[h=1]Market doesn't seem to care about COVID19 so this
story may be moot:

3 charts predicting future waves of coronavirus cases show why we should worry about September[/h]
https://www.yahoo.com/news/3-charts-predicting-future-waves-222100983.html

 

[exnavyew]

[h=1]White House adviser expects U.S. unemployment rate for April to be 'north of 16%'[/h]https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/white-house-adviser-expects-u-144306556.html


Grim and getting worse: US set for historic unemployment surge
https://www.yahoo.com/news/grim-getting-worse-us-set-historic-unemployment-surge-015532438.html

 

[weatherweenie]

And yet, the market continues to recover.

White House adviser expects U.S. unemployment rate for April to be 'north of 16%'

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/white-house-adviser-expects-u-144306556.html


Grim and getting worse: US set for historic unemployment surge
https://www.yahoo.com/news/grim-getting-worse-us-set-historic-unemployment-surge-015532438.html

 

[exnavyew]

Beyond Meat (BYND) seems to be benefiting from the Tyson Meats COVID problem.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND?p=BYND&.tsrc=fin-srch

 

[tsptalk]

Beyond meat or a salad? Tough choice. :yuck:

 

[Bullitt]

BYND and PTON had massive short squeezes this week. As of 4/15, BYND only had 18% short interest but PTON had 42%.

Both companies baffle me.

 

[exnavyew]

What goes up must come down article. Ah...but when, there's the rub. :laugh:
[h=1]A ‘much more severe’ selloff looms in the stock market, strategist warns[/h]
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...ist-warns-2020-05-10?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

 

[exnavyew]

FWIW:

[h=1]His fund is already up 34% this year, and there’s more to come if the stock market crashes like he’s predicting[/h]
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...-like-hes-predicting-2020-05-10?mod=home-page

 

[exnavyew]

Gee, I wonder how the market will react to his testimony?
[h=1]‘Darkest winter in modern history’ coming without stronger coronavirus response, Rick Bright to testify[/h]https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...t-to-testify-2020-05-13?mod=mw_more_headlines

 

[exnavyew]

Well I guess that explains why the futures are up. Another dose of 'hope-ium'.

[h=1]Dow futures climb 300 points as Fed’s Powell says don’t ‘bet against American economy’— even as unemployment could rise to 25%[/h]
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...ent-could-rise-to-25-2020-05-17?mod=home-page

 

[exnavyew]

Japan slips into recession, slump set to worsen as pandemic wreaks havoc

Coming to a theater near us? :worried:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/japan-slips-recession-worst-yet-021325289.html

 

[exnavyew]

I tend to agree that
A: things are gonna get a lot worse before they even start to get better.
B: recovery is gonna take years not months.

If an effective vaccine were available TODAY, wouldn't it still take years to inoculate tens if not hundreds of millions of people?
(and there's a significant percentage of people who would refuse ANY vaccine!?)

HIV made it's appearance in the 1980's and is still with us today. COVID is FAR more contagious and I personally believe it will be around for many years to come and am planning accordingly.

End of gloom session.

[h=1]Larry Summers: Pandemic marks a 'fairly profound structural change' in economy[/h]
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...d-structural-change-in-economy-132446609.html

 

[Whipsaw]

Its a bad flu, that's pretty much it. If we didn't do anything, a bunch of folks would have been home sick for a week or two; others would have succumbed just like with the regular flu. Spanish Flu, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, not all that different.

 

[weatherweenie]

That seems to be an oversimplification.

The number of people have died is with quarantine measures. Think how much higher that number would be, without quarantining. Also, people act as though deaths have dropped off. A lot of people are still dying and will continue to die.

We have no idea what the long-term health ramifications are. Early concerns are permanent lung damage as well as possible organ damage.

Its a bad flu, that's pretty much it. If we didn't do anything, a bunch of folks would have been home sick for a week or two; others would have succumbed just like with the regular flu. Spanish Flu, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, not all that different.

 

[nasa1974]

Its a bad flu, that's pretty much it. If we didn't do anything, a bunch of folks would have been home sick for a week or two; others would have succumbed just like with the regular flu. Spanish Flu, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, not all that different.

Let's think about this for a second.

The flu deaths for this season 2019/2020 (October to February - around 5 months) is about 0.1% and the CDC is estimating the high end at 46,000 deaths and 45,000,000 affected as of 2/22/2020. Now comparing that to Covid-19 (depending on testing) has a death rate anywhere from 0.74% (Germany) to 3.4% (Globally). We already know that the virus is more infectious than the flu. So far Covid-19 has killed over 90,000 (around 4 months) in the United States and that is with social distancing and stay-at-home restrictions. Lets assume for argument sake that we didn't social distance and stay-at-home, since we don't do that for the flu, and we say that the mortality rate for Covid-19 is around 1.5%. At that percentage we would estimate about 4.8 million people could die if everyone in the U.S. got the virus. Even if we use the estimated flu infections for this season (45,000,000) that would be 675,000 deaths. I don't find these numbers an acceptable risk. I also don't see how people can say it's just a bad flu.
Oh! and we have only tested around 4,000,000.

 

[Whipsaw]

Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu