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I'm sticking with the I fund. Got nervous for a little while and almost swithced to S.
I'm sticking with the I fund. Got nervous for a little while and almost swithced to S.
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Even more on the I fund
- Thread starter Wheels
- Start date
imported post
Ablingbutch, sorry about the misspell. Too early. Butgood morning. Please check my math. December of last year, the I fund never really looked back gaining 75 points during December against 10 for the S fund and 46 for the C fund. I may swing into the S fund from my I fund commitment if the S and C drop during the FOMC meeting. Your thoughts?
Ablingbutch, sorry about the misspell. Too early. Butgood morning. Please check my math. December of last year, the I fund never really looked back gaining 75 points during December against 10 for the S fund and 46 for the C fund. I may swing into the S fund from my I fund commitment if the S and C drop during the FOMC meeting. Your thoughts?
puertorico
Member
imported post
smedlap wrotte Hope
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your holding firm on I Fund and not trading out until mabe next Monday
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Today dow is looking ugly that why I have to stay in I-Fund now.
tomorrow will pay back.I will stay a least to wed.
smedlap wrotte Hope
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your holding firm on I Fund and not trading out until mabe next Monday
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Today dow is looking ugly that why I have to stay in I-Fund now.
tomorrow will pay back.I will stay a least to wed.
Rod
Well-known member
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puertorico wrote:
http://money.cnn.com/markets/world_markets/
I wonder what happened???
puertorico wrote:
The I Fund is dropping drasticallyas of 1220 PM EST:smedlap wrotte Hope
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your holding firm on I Fund and not trading out until mabe next Monday
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today dow is looking ugly that why I have to stay in I-Fund now.
tomorrow will pay back.I will stay a least to wed.
http://money.cnn.com/markets/world_markets/
I wonder what happened???
Rod
Well-known member
imported post
Rod wrote:
Rod wrote:
No worries, PR. You'll have some decent gains.:^puertorico wrote:The I Fund is dropping drasticallyas of 1220 PM EST:smedlap wrotte Hope
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your holding firm on I Fund and not trading out until mabe next Monday
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Today dow is looking ugly that why I have to stay in I-Fund now.
tomorrow will pay back.I will stay a least to wed.
http://money.cnn.com/markets/world_markets/
I wonder what happened???
imported post
Gang, I predict a good ride all this week as the market data should reflect such tomorrow, wed and Fri. Employment numbers on Friday should come in again solid and be the short term icing on the cake. You can feel the market wanting to drop with oil, dollar and Walmart concerns for an average XMAS sales. That will be sometime next week as the market gets ready for the FOMC rate increase. Then it will rise again. As to the I Fund drop today, it just followed a beaten DOW down. Considering that the S&P and Dow were down .8% at noon and the I fund still at .25% positive - that's a 1% cumulative gain!
The I fundessentially ignoredthe influence of the FMOC meeting last year and or the realized declines of the C and S funds associated with such. My play will be if the C and S do drop, I will transfer from 100% I to 100% S for a couple of days and be back to I quickly. Now, I will also be amazed if it works!:^ But I'm trying to get 8% monthly return vice 4%.
Don;'t follow my advice, make your own decisions!:i Good luck
Gang, I predict a good ride all this week as the market data should reflect such tomorrow, wed and Fri. Employment numbers on Friday should come in again solid and be the short term icing on the cake. You can feel the market wanting to drop with oil, dollar and Walmart concerns for an average XMAS sales. That will be sometime next week as the market gets ready for the FOMC rate increase. Then it will rise again. As to the I Fund drop today, it just followed a beaten DOW down. Considering that the S&P and Dow were down .8% at noon and the I fund still at .25% positive - that's a 1% cumulative gain!
The I fundessentially ignoredthe influence of the FMOC meeting last year and or the realized declines of the C and S funds associated with such. My play will be if the C and S do drop, I will transfer from 100% I to 100% S for a couple of days and be back to I quickly. Now, I will also be amazed if it works!:^ But I'm trying to get 8% monthly return vice 4%.
Don;'t follow my advice, make your own decisions!:i Good luck
puertorico
Member
imported post
Hey guys today share price
I-fund pay 6 cents from14.85 to 14.91 :^
S-fund pay 2 cents :^
c-fund loss 4 cent
f-fund loss 3 cent
NOt to chevvy for I-fund being in red territory :^
Hey guys today share price
I-fund pay 6 cents from14.85 to 14.91 :^
S-fund pay 2 cents :^
c-fund loss 4 cent
f-fund loss 3 cent
NOt to chevvy for I-fund being in red territory :^
puertorico
Member
imported post
smedlap wrote:
:^
smedlap wrote:
:^
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Just remember gang - when we make money, everyone is happy. To lose it, we get excited and dissapointed. Need to watch this puppy carefully. As pointed out in another site I fund has only been really productive since August. We can inch out some more profits here. But if I am correct, without market churning, the summer benchmark fair value of my measuring stick - the S&P is 1260. For 31 December, it is 1225. What we are talking about here is that without churning around key events (holding a steady C fund hand), if invested in C fund, we would make 4% by Dec 31 and 3% respectively. I fund should do better. GDP is reported tomorrow at 08:30. This will set an initial weekly foundation for the market, good or bad. My point is that those of us that played the I fund from the start, or S and C basket have done well for November. December and January as months should be good also. May even be able to hit that 1250 level. But there will be 1 or 2 pullbacks (consolidations or market churning by the Bulls and the Bears). Todays pullback is a little early for my understanding, premature from my analysis. But the market is very fragile to oil, poor earnings reports and other. If we get our GDP #, employment numbers on Friday and ISM Mfg on Wed, I am sticking to I Fund with an intent to quickly drop into S on any pullback. Then back to I asthe international marketis forcasted to be the strongest (I fundis invested in excellentcompanies). But I fund can go down also as it was relatively stagnant most of the year with C and S. Just try and be as smart on the market as one can as there will be months during wich I recommend hibernation in G fund!
Just remember gang - when we make money, everyone is happy. To lose it, we get excited and dissapointed. Need to watch this puppy carefully. As pointed out in another site I fund has only been really productive since August. We can inch out some more profits here. But if I am correct, without market churning, the summer benchmark fair value of my measuring stick - the S&P is 1260. For 31 December, it is 1225. What we are talking about here is that without churning around key events (holding a steady C fund hand), if invested in C fund, we would make 4% by Dec 31 and 3% respectively. I fund should do better. GDP is reported tomorrow at 08:30. This will set an initial weekly foundation for the market, good or bad. My point is that those of us that played the I fund from the start, or S and C basket have done well for November. December and January as months should be good also. May even be able to hit that 1250 level. But there will be 1 or 2 pullbacks (consolidations or market churning by the Bulls and the Bears). Todays pullback is a little early for my understanding, premature from my analysis. But the market is very fragile to oil, poor earnings reports and other. If we get our GDP #, employment numbers on Friday and ISM Mfg on Wed, I am sticking to I Fund with an intent to quickly drop into S on any pullback. Then back to I asthe international marketis forcasted to be the strongest (I fundis invested in excellentcompanies). But I fund can go down also as it was relatively stagnant most of the year with C and S. Just try and be as smart on the market as one can as there will be months during wich I recommend hibernation in G fund!
imported post
smedlap wrote:
TSP put me in 100% S today. I swear I didn't put that order in. I want to be at least 75%I right now. Alzheimers? Sabotage? More reason to start keeping records, that way I know if it's me or Memorex?
smedlap wrote:
smed, I hear you. I just hate to sit in the G fund, even when it makes sense, impatient I guess.
TSP put me in 100% S today. I swear I didn't put that order in. I want to be at least 75%I right now. Alzheimers? Sabotage? More reason to start keeping records, that way I know if it's me or Memorex?
imported post
Well, at least you ended up firmly in the S fund, a positive return. Not a bad land for something you did not do. I see hybernation more like during February and July, August and September. Stocks remain my play until my assessmkent then. I think that is if all things remain equal. Mid January, lots of bonuses being invested in 401k, gift cards being used to extend the Xmas season, gas oil should start to drop and reduce price pressure and we start earnings season. Big players step to the sidelines to churn the market. Nice to see you active!
Well, at least you ended up firmly in the S fund, a positive return. Not a bad land for something you did not do. I see hybernation more like during February and July, August and September. Stocks remain my play until my assessmkent then. I think that is if all things remain equal. Mid January, lots of bonuses being invested in 401k, gift cards being used to extend the Xmas season, gas oil should start to drop and reduce price pressure and we start earnings season. Big players step to the sidelines to churn the market. Nice to see you active!
imported post
This article discusses my concerns on playing the international funds with the dollar this low. (How low can it really go?)...
Curb your enthusiasm
Commentary: International equity funds warrant caution
By Marvin Appel, Systems & Forecasts
Last Update: 2:33 PM ET Nov. 29, 2004
NEW YORK (S&F) -- To read the news, placing investments abroad would seem to be a no-brainer -- but investors should tread carefully.
Every day brings new headlines about our country's worsening trade deficit and budget deficits, on our dependence on foreign lenders to finance these and the resultant weakness of the U.S. Dollar, which is making new lows every day.
Meanwhile, the average international equity mutual fund is up 12.8 percent in 2004 through Wednesday, according to the Lipper International Index -- handily outpacing the 7.8 percent return of Vanguard's S&P 500 (VFINX: news, chart, profile) index fund.
Over the long term, international stocks match our own
From 1971 to 1989, international stocks (as benchmarked by the Morgan-Stanley EAFE Index) significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in U.S. dollar terms. However, from 1989 to 2002 the S&P 500 was much stronger. Since 2002 international stocks have regained the advantage. Over the entire period, the returns of both have been very close, with the S&P 500 slightly more profitable and slightly less volatile.
Diversification into foreign stocks disappoints
Holding a hypothetical portfolio of half EAFE and half S&P 500, rebalanced annually, since 1971 returned 0.1 percent per year less than the S&P 500 alone (in U.S. dollars, total returns). Drawdown in the diversified portfolio was slightly worse than for the S&P 500 alone, although by the academic risk measure (standard deviation of monthly returns) the diversified portfolio was slightly less volatile.
Given the absence of economical index funds tracking the EAFE during most of this period, the actual costs to an investor of diversifying internationally would probably have outweighed the modest benefits. Rather, the greatest potential benefit from investing in foreign stocks appears to depend on having a successful asset allocation strategy that identifies periods when foreign stocks are likely to outperform our own.
Weak U.S. Dollar helps international funds in 2003 and 2004
Most mutual funds that invest abroad do not attempt to hedge their exposure to foreign currency risk. As a result, even if a foreign stock market stays flat in terms of its local currency, investors from the U.S. can profit if the dollar falls.
From January, 2002 through the present, the U.S. dollar has lost 30 percent of its value, representing a rate of decline of more than 12 percent a year. During this period the average international equity mutual fund has gained almost 29 percent, while the S&P 500 index (total return) is up 10.3 percent.
The implication is that international equity mutual funds have benefited mightily from the weakness in the dollar -- far more than from strength in the world's major stock markets. A bet on continued strength in the foreign sector implicitly assumes that the dollar will not rebound significantly from current levels.
Dollar Index is near all-time lows
The chart below shows that the U.S. dollar is now near its lowest levels ever since currencies began to float against each other. The dollar bottomed out at similar levels in 1978, 1980, 1987, 1991, 1992 and 1995. The all time U.S. dollar low in 1992 was just 5 percent below current levels.
One factor that does bode poorly for the dollar is record trade deficits relative to total domestic production (GDP). On the other hand, inflation and federal budget deficits were worse in the past than is now the case. As a result, it is far from certain that the dollar ought to fall much further.
Bottom line: The history of the U.S. dollar index suggests that the U.S. dollar has more room to recover than to fall further, making it risky to hold international equity funds.
Of course past results do not predict any future level of safety or profitability.
Recommendation: Investors have not been rewarded over the long term by holding international equity funds in a fixed portfolio allocation. With the U.S. dollar near record lows, there is a good chance that this will continue to be the case. Long term investors should stick to U.S. stocks.
However, active asset allocators can bet on continued leadership by international stocks through the iShares MSCI EAFE Index fund (EFA: news, chart, profile), with has done a good job tracking the EAFE Index since inception in 2001. I recommend using a 10 percent buy stop in the U.S. dollar index as a signal to sell EAFE and return to U.S. stocks.
This article discusses my concerns on playing the international funds with the dollar this low. (How low can it really go?)...
Curb your enthusiasm
Commentary: International equity funds warrant caution
By Marvin Appel, Systems & Forecasts
Last Update: 2:33 PM ET Nov. 29, 2004
NEW YORK (S&F) -- To read the news, placing investments abroad would seem to be a no-brainer -- but investors should tread carefully.
Every day brings new headlines about our country's worsening trade deficit and budget deficits, on our dependence on foreign lenders to finance these and the resultant weakness of the U.S. Dollar, which is making new lows every day.
Meanwhile, the average international equity mutual fund is up 12.8 percent in 2004 through Wednesday, according to the Lipper International Index -- handily outpacing the 7.8 percent return of Vanguard's S&P 500 (VFINX: news, chart, profile) index fund.
Over the long term, international stocks match our own
From 1971 to 1989, international stocks (as benchmarked by the Morgan-Stanley EAFE Index) significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in U.S. dollar terms. However, from 1989 to 2002 the S&P 500 was much stronger. Since 2002 international stocks have regained the advantage. Over the entire period, the returns of both have been very close, with the S&P 500 slightly more profitable and slightly less volatile.
Diversification into foreign stocks disappoints
Holding a hypothetical portfolio of half EAFE and half S&P 500, rebalanced annually, since 1971 returned 0.1 percent per year less than the S&P 500 alone (in U.S. dollars, total returns). Drawdown in the diversified portfolio was slightly worse than for the S&P 500 alone, although by the academic risk measure (standard deviation of monthly returns) the diversified portfolio was slightly less volatile.
Given the absence of economical index funds tracking the EAFE during most of this period, the actual costs to an investor of diversifying internationally would probably have outweighed the modest benefits. Rather, the greatest potential benefit from investing in foreign stocks appears to depend on having a successful asset allocation strategy that identifies periods when foreign stocks are likely to outperform our own.
Weak U.S. Dollar helps international funds in 2003 and 2004
Most mutual funds that invest abroad do not attempt to hedge their exposure to foreign currency risk. As a result, even if a foreign stock market stays flat in terms of its local currency, investors from the U.S. can profit if the dollar falls.
From January, 2002 through the present, the U.S. dollar has lost 30 percent of its value, representing a rate of decline of more than 12 percent a year. During this period the average international equity mutual fund has gained almost 29 percent, while the S&P 500 index (total return) is up 10.3 percent.
The implication is that international equity mutual funds have benefited mightily from the weakness in the dollar -- far more than from strength in the world's major stock markets. A bet on continued strength in the foreign sector implicitly assumes that the dollar will not rebound significantly from current levels.
Dollar Index is near all-time lows
The chart below shows that the U.S. dollar is now near its lowest levels ever since currencies began to float against each other. The dollar bottomed out at similar levels in 1978, 1980, 1987, 1991, 1992 and 1995. The all time U.S. dollar low in 1992 was just 5 percent below current levels.
One factor that does bode poorly for the dollar is record trade deficits relative to total domestic production (GDP). On the other hand, inflation and federal budget deficits were worse in the past than is now the case. As a result, it is far from certain that the dollar ought to fall much further.
Bottom line: The history of the U.S. dollar index suggests that the U.S. dollar has more room to recover than to fall further, making it risky to hold international equity funds.
Of course past results do not predict any future level of safety or profitability.
Recommendation: Investors have not been rewarded over the long term by holding international equity funds in a fixed portfolio allocation. With the U.S. dollar near record lows, there is a good chance that this will continue to be the case. Long term investors should stick to U.S. stocks.
However, active asset allocators can bet on continued leadership by international stocks through the iShares MSCI EAFE Index fund (EFA: news, chart, profile), with has done a good job tracking the EAFE Index since inception in 2001. I recommend using a 10 percent buy stop in the U.S. dollar index as a signal to sell EAFE and return to U.S. stocks.
imported post
About another 5%. Certainly the Euro to 1:35 to the dollar and the yen to 1 to 1 and maybe 85 to the dollar. There is already dammaging reaction within foreign manufacturing areas as most are dependent on US buying. My position is not to live entirely in one position - just the best position at the time. I reassessthat position everymorning. Right now the best play for me has been I Fund or S fund which gives me a little extra over C fund. I just don't see the I dropping suddenly unless foreign countries attempt to prop up the dollar.
For example, I hope when one votes, he or she doesn't go distinct party lines, they select the best to lead.
About another 5%. Certainly the Euro to 1:35 to the dollar and the yen to 1 to 1 and maybe 85 to the dollar. There is already dammaging reaction within foreign manufacturing areas as most are dependent on US buying. My position is not to live entirely in one position - just the best position at the time. I reassessthat position everymorning. Right now the best play for me has been I Fund or S fund which gives me a little extra over C fund. I just don't see the I dropping suddenly unless foreign countries attempt to prop up the dollar.
For example, I hope when one votes, he or she doesn't go distinct party lines, they select the best to lead.
imported post
This is great. Take all that money and invest it as if you never received it. That's "all" the COLA. Wish we got an increase because it is more expensive now to eat in Canada! We'll just a little more! Moose meat has rissen in price or we'll have to go to a lower grade cut!
And Puertorico - how is the COLA where you are?
This is great. Take all that money and invest it as if you never received it. That's "all" the COLA. Wish we got an increase because it is more expensive now to eat in Canada! We'll just a little more! Moose meat has rissen in price or we'll have to go to a lower grade cut!
And Puertorico - how is the COLA where you are?
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