Ebbnflow's Day-to-Day Chart / MAR'07

[fabijo]

Thanks to fabijo's idea (using his server), people not able to see the ebbchart from their work might be able to see it now. It's not coming from Photobucket.com (filtered by workplace's security) anymore. Thanks a heap, fabijo!

Soitenly!

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,

Meant to say this earlier, but congrats on calling the I opportunities this week using your system. All I have to say is "wow!" :nuts:

Aspiration

Definitely!! That is just awesome. Your cross-checking is going to smoke all of us this year. What do you think, 50% returns this year??

Thanks guys, too early for congratulations, but I'd take the 50% any day, anytime.

 

[ebbnflow]

I thought Tech was looking for the number of the day of the month, which is clearly on the chart. Maybe he just didn't notice that the numbers you posted were the actual date, instead of just numbers?

You're right, fabijo. It's the date he was looking for to put on the days of the week. Tech, those numbers on top of the days of the week are the dates.

 

[merlin]

Ebb,

I appreciate the chart you provide. Here's to continued success with it.
If the yen and the Neikki continue to rise.. Why does this cause a negative reaction in the I Fund?

 

[fabijo]

If the yen and the Neikki continue to rise.. Why does this cause a negative reaction in the I Fund?

Just when you think you understand something, some new info pops up to explain irrational behavior just to throw you off!

Word is going around that Japan has cheap interest rates on their loans, plus the Yen isn't worth much. Combining those two things, the word is that investors all around the world have been getting loans from Japan for practically nothing then investing in risky investments for years now. When the threat of the interest rate rising or when the Yen rises in value, it becomes more expensive to pay off the loan. Given that threat people need to sell their assets to pay off their Japanese loans fast before the Yen gets too strong.

It's called the Yen Carry Trade and is discussed a bunch in the I Fund thread.

 

[The_Technician]

Tech, are you looking at the ebbchart. It's here:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=4100

It has the days of the week labeled (MON, TUE, WED, THU, etc.).

No, I was looking at your spinning dollar stop signs display....

 

[ebbnflow]

You're right Tech, the spinning dollars and stop signs don't have dates for quick reference. Next time I'll put it in to make it more user friendly. Thanks.

 

[NyteTracker]

Thanks for the link, NyteTracker. I'm using the companies in there to buy shares on the CNBC contest. I just bought meself $1,000,000 worth of stocks. Woohoo!

No, Thank You. You're chart is a huge benefit to all TSPers, and God-speed with your contest.
You may want to consider nxg. It had a huge drop today from rising dollar and drop in gold. Low P/E and high marks with Independent Researchers.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nxg

Just snagged it @ 3.28

 

[ebbnflow]

Thanks for the tip NyteTracker, much obliged! Made a killing yesterday with the link you provided.

 

[ebbnflow]

For what it's worth:

............FRI..MON..TUE
C-fund.....

S-fund....

I-fund......

System using ebbtracker's I-fund with cross-checking rules:

a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I/S-fund).

Following the above rules, I'm on the I-fund for Mar. 09/Friday (2 greens) and Mar. 12/Monday (3 greens). It's the S-fund for Mar. 13/Tuesday (2 greens) with x-checking in effect. Good luck everybody!

 

[robo]

Stocks Higher into Final Hour Even as Apprehension Remains High
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Retail longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is very positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, every sector is rising and volume is above average. Dow Jones is reporting that U.S. household net worth rose for the 17th consecutive quarter and hit another all-time record in the fourth quarter while consumer borrowing rose by the slowest pace in eight years, Federal Reserve figures showed today. The $1.4 trillion increase in household net worth last quarter followed an $839 billion gain in the third quarter and reflected a surge in stocks. Net worth related to real estate rose $246 billion for the quarter, which is very surprising. I am quite certain there will be very few stories in the financial or mainstream press regarding this very positive news. The ISE Sentiment Index plunged 30.3% to an extraordinarily depressed 46.0 this morning. It has been lower only three other days since the index began in October 2002. Its all-time low was 36.0 in July of last year. Moreover, its 10-day moving average is hitting an all-time record low of 91.80. While a test of the recent lows is possible, the historic intensity of recent selling likely presents longer-term investors another excellent entry point for long positions. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on rising apprehension ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report and sub-prime worries.

Posted by: Gary / 2:27 PM


http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/

 

[robo]

Thursday, March 8, 2007
The Mysteries of Up & Down Volume
Jason Goepfert



Over the past week, we’ve seen a laundry list of extremes across a variety of shorter-term sentiment- and breadth-related indicators.

One of the more remarkable is that of the relationship between “up” volume and “down” volume on the NYSE. Up volume is simply the number of shares traded in stocks that closed higher than the previous close, and vice-versa for down volume.

Last Tuesday, that ratio was skewed 100-to-1 in favor of the downside, the worst since the crash of 1987. A week later, however, buyers returned in force and the skew was 15-to-1 in favor of upside volume. Historically, it’s rare to see two such opposite extremes within a week of each other, and it might be instructive to take a look at them.

Each of the four instances in the past 50 years was consistent in their pattern:

1. At least a 15-to-1 skew of down volume to up volume.
2. At least a 15-to-1 skew of up volume to down volume less than one week later.
3. A retest of the recent low within 30 days.
4. A rally off a successful test of that low.

The four charts below highlight each of the occurrences, and it provides a general outline of what we may see this time around if the pattern holds somewhat true. This time we’re seeing the volume reversal soon after a market high, whereas the others occurred after a major downtrend, so that’s one caveat here. And if the recent low breaks, it will invalidate this pattern and I would not be looking for higher prices based on this extreme volume reversal any longer.

http://hamzeianalytics.blogspot.com/



Jason Goepfert is President of www.sentimenTrader.com. He has been trading stocks, stock and index options, index futures, currencies and commodities for over 15 years. He holds several securities licenses and has most recently managed the operations of a $3B hedge fund and top-10 online brokerage (Gomez rankings). Jason founded sentimenTrader in 1998, and began a web presence in 2001. Currently, the site has subscribers in all 50 states and more than 40 foreign countries

 

[NyteTracker]

At The Break-
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord+^n300+^n225&d=t
http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/overview.asp?symbol=BHP.AX
http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/overview.asp?symbol=7203.T&WTmodLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage1
http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/overview.asp?symbol=8306.T&WTmodLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage2
http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/overview.asp?symbol=8411.T&WTmodLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage2
http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/overview.asp?symbol=8316.T
http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/overview.asp?symbol=4502.T
http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/overview.asp?symbol=7267.T
http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/overview.asp?symbol=7751.T

 

[ebbnflow]

Thanks NyteTracker, I'm going to use those stocks on my CNBC $1,000,000 portfolio. Now I know how Birch feels!

 

[ebbnflow]

+.114% today on the I-fund would put the ebbtracker over +3.00% for the month and it's just the first week. Woohoo! This bounce has legs alright. :nuts:

 

[ebbnflow]

For what it's worth:

............FRI..MON..TUE
C-fund.....

S-fund....

I-fund......

System using ebbtracker's I-fund with cross-checking rules:

a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I/S-fund).

Following the above rules, I'm on the I-fund for Mar. 09/Friday (2 greens) and Mar. 12/Monday (3 greens). It's the S-fund for Mar. 13/Tuesday (2 greens) with x-checking in effect. Good luck everybody!

Due to unforseen (big) changes in data I gathered on Thursday and Friday, I have a revision for the above chart (see next post below). One minor change for Monday and one major change for Tuesday. The ebbchart will also be updated shortly.

 

[ebbnflow]

For what it's worth:

............FRI..MON..TUE
C-fund.....

S-fund....

I-fund......

System using ebbtracker's I-fund with cross-checking rules:

a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I/S-fund).

Following the above rules, I'm on the I-fund for Mar. 09/Friday (2 greens) and Mar. 12/Monday (2 greens). It's the G-fund for Mar. 13/Tuesday (2 stops). Good luck everybody!

 

[ebbnflow]

I'll try to update the ebbchart prices everyday by 9:00 PM EST thru photobucket.com. But the new changes won't show up until fabijo takes it from photobucket and uploads it to his server.

 

[airlift]

I think this is a welcome development. With Fabijo's cooperation, we can have daily updates, and you will be able to react on fresh news, at your discretion.

I'll try to update the ebbchart prices everyday by 9:00 PM EST thru photobucket.com. But the new changes won't show up until fabijo takes it from photobucket and uploads it to his server.

 

[fabijo]

It's up!