ebbnflow's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Ditto what Lobo said! Great thanks from me too

Now I don't have to think anymore :laugh:

RPM

That goes for me, also. And you're welcome, RPM.

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,
I appreciate this specific information because it helps to build confidence in your system. Is this partly the application of fractal theory? In a limited way, I understand fractal theory in what it pertains to trading stocks and indexes, as the theory that permits a computerized system to find thousands of corresponding charts that are similar to the current situation. That is, and this is only as an example, I think that most of us will agree that human nature has not changed substantially in 4,000 years. Assuming this premise, people will most likely behave in the same way when confronted with the same emotional stimuli, such as greed and fear. Thus, a high probability exists that people will trade the same way when certain conditions arise. If a computerized program can make sense of chart movements, there is a high likelyhood that one can have a high rate of predictability trading the markets. I hope this helps in understanding your system. I will appreciate to know if I am on the right track or not. Thank you

I missed that part of your question. Here's what the ebbtracker does: It gets a pattern from the preceding days and compares them with thousands of stored patterns tucked inside the ebbtracker's database. From the matching patterns I get trends. From these trends I get cycles, and these cycles tell me how long it will last (from one or more days).

Sponsor, you're on the right track! If you're not, the ebbtracker would be in big trouble. The market can only react in so many directions, ergo its predictability.

 

[ebbnflow]

Sponsor, I thought about that also. Ebb pretty much cleared up what one could gather from reading through a bunch of previous posts. When I read a book on fractals as applied to stock trading, I immediately thought of ebbnflow because I knew his tracker was looking for similar patterns in the past and what followed from them.

If I understand correctly, ebb, your tracker looks for those patterns from the daily price change, right? If ebbtracker was going for true fractal application, it'd be looking at patterns from the weekly, biweekly, monthly, quarterly, etc, since a major concept from fractal theory is that the small parts reflect the larger part so that if you were to zoom in on a chart, it would look similar to the bigger picture you just zoomed in from.

Congrats are definitely in order for ebb for tweaking the tracker so well! And many thanks are in order for you sharing so much with us.

Thanks, fabijo! My stored patterns are more like 3D patterns. It's got a shape -- meaning it's not one-dimensional. I look at daily price changes, but to make it meaningful, I use it in relation to other stuff (movements, etc.).

 

[fabijo]

I hope I'm not getting too curious, ebb, but what do you use for the tracker? Is it a database application, like MS Access, or a spreadsheet like Excel, or did you write your own program (or a combination of these!)?

 

[FogSailing]

Eb:

This discussion regarding your system sounds surprisingly like the theories of Dr. Harry Seldon, creator of the science of psychohistory. He was an amazing guy created by Isaac Asimov many moons ago...

FS

 

[NyteTracker]

I don't understand all that fractal application stuff, however
MEGA KUDOS!!! :nuts:

 

[ebbnflow]

Thanks, NyteTracker! It's still too early in the game, but still nice to get some good feedbacks.

 

[ebbnflow]

Eb:

This discussion regarding your system sounds surprisingly like the theories of Dr. Harry Seldon, creator of the science of psychohistory. He was an amazing guy created by Isaac Asimov many moons ago...

FS

FogSailing, it's the human condition. Our brains are programmed to boil things down to the lowest common denominator. Same reason why staring at woodwork patterns could conjure up faces. Like they say, "familiarity breeds comfort." Yep, break it down.

 

[ebbnflow]

I hope I'm not getting too curious, ebb, but what do you use for the tracker? Is it a database application, like MS Access, or a spreadsheet like Excel, or did you write your own program (or a combination of these!)?

Yep, I use a database (not MS Access) and Excel.

 

[ebbnflow]

I just uploaded the latest update to the spinchart for next week's Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

 

[cap32]

Ebb, Thanks for your time,effort and willing to share yourcharts with us,while I don't follow it all the time it is one of my cross checks to use....great minds think alike!

 

[ebbnflow]

Thanks, cap32!

 

[ebbnflow]

Perhaps it's not the most opportune time to make an IFT to the I-fund today. Maybe it's better to wait a day or so, but I'm a pro! I'm prepared. I have the defribrillator by my side, aspirins, ok, check -- I'm good to go. Please don't try this at home. Good luck to all.

 

[airlift]

25c, 75i

 

[Wolverine]

Perhaps it's not the most opportune time to make an IFT to the I-fund today. Maybe it's better to wait a day or so, but I'm a pro! I'm prepared. I have the defribrillator by my side, aspirins, ok, check -- I'm good to go. Please don't try this at home. Good luck to all.

Thanks for the warning ebbnflow

Looks like you have met your immediate needs for the situation at hand though.

LOL

 

[airlift]

Ebb,
The I fund closed at -.08, while the C fund closed at +.01. It is too early to tell for sure, but unless we have geopolitical turmoil, the ebbtracker seems to have picked up the right signal and market direction. The ebbtracker signals the I fund for tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday. Therefore we have time to recover in the next couple of days with a +FV and then go to the G or F fund for safety. Perhaps I am dreaming, but It doesn't hurt to speculate....

 

[MFDonn]

OK I give up. Since there are no dumb questions, what is FV? Fair Value?

I'm in with the 'I' gang for the next few days.

MD

 

[airlift]

I should have said, it doesn't hurt to speculate until one loses money... lol!

 

[airlift]

I'm sorry I don't have the best understanding of FV. Please read the I fund thread where you will be able to read very specific explanations and discussions as to how it works. There are no dumb questions. It's okay!

OK I give up. Since there are no dumb questions, what is FV? Fair Value?

I'm in with the 'I' gang for the next few days.

MD

 

[Sunnyskies]

MFDon -- from the main index of the message board, go to the topic on the I fund. The very first message in that topic is about FVs. It will probably answer your questions.