ebbnflow's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Moved over to the F-fund for Wednesday. Good luck all!

 

[ebbnflow]

Went to the ebbchart page and saw that Tom was able to update the commentary for tomorrow.

 

[jkat1966]

Thanks Again!!!
Me and my wife tacked on another 2K thanks to you. I was questioning moving into G for the penny today, but stuck with your system.
Question, on safe haven pattern days do you have a system other than G payout days for determining whether to move into F or G?

 

[ebbnflow]

I also started tracking the F-fund with the ebbtracker this year and so far it's still ahead by a few F-pennies. But if I know a G-penny is going to pay, I will switch from the F-fund to the G-fund.

 

[JTH]

Mr Ebbnflow


I spent my entire 4-days off collecting historical data and trying to connect the dots. I'm determined to create a system that works for me, but I must admit I haven't come up with anything but a lot of wasted time, less sleep and more coffee. I go to bed and wake up dreaming about stocks and patterns and I think my wife is starting t get a bit concerned about my health :cheesy:

While I admire your system, I have a hard time following something when I don't understand why the decisions are made. It reminds me of my days as a chess player, but in this instance I'm having a hard time analyzing the patterns to predict the outcomes.

Anyways kudos to ya and I'm curious if you have done better during the volatile months vs the stable months?

Cheers...JTH

 

[ebbnflow]

Mr Ebbnflow


I spent my entire 4-days off collecting historical data and trying to connect the dots. I'm determined to create a system that works for me, but I must admit I haven't come up with anything but a lot of wasted time, less sleep and more coffee. I go to bed and wake up dreaming about stocks and patterns and I think my wife is starting t get a bit concerned about my health :cheesy:

While I admire your system, I have a hard time following something when I don't understand why the decisions are made. It reminds me of my days as a chess player, but in this instance I'm having a hard time analyzing the patterns to predict the outcomes.

Anyways kudos to ya and I'm curious if you have done better during the volatile months vs the stable months?

Cheers...JTH

JTH, I've done well in both market conditions. The ebbtracker is a database of past historical patterns and it keeps growing everyday. You can think of it this way:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=4381&highlight=hal+quant&page=2;post#18

 

[fabijo]

I figure I'd point some people to this post, since it is buried within many pages of ebbnflow's talk thread! Ebb, thanks for constantly sharing your ideas. All of us here have benefited from everything you've shared and continue to share. Even if we don't follow your system, we can at least know that tracking stock patterns really works.

In streamlining the ebb tracker system, I have tried to make it as absolute as it can be by getting rid of extraneous inputs (emotion/gut feeling), and other sundry background noises. The output I get from the ebb tracker does not leave anything to interpretation, in other words, I too am "extolling the virtues of a mechanical approach."

You can get some idea of the ebb tracker in my talk with other board members:

Retire: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=6;post#62
FundSurfer: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=8;post#94
Griffin: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#99
Wheels: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=9;post#107

 

[fedgolfer]

Ebb, awesome call on the I-fund fv steal. Anyway, have you ever filled the Ebbsystem with historical data for individual stocks... say AAPL? I'd be interested to hear your successes with that. I'd imagine you could reap 5-10% swing trades quite often.

 

[fabijo]

Ebb, awesome call on the I-fund fv steal. Anyway, have you ever filled the Ebbsystem with historical data for individual stocks... say AAPL? I'd be interested to hear your successes with that. I'd imagine you could reap 5-10% swing trades quite often.

Yo, he could make much cash like this. Just use Zecco.com. They allow 40 free trades a month with no minimums.

http://www.zecco.com/Default.aspx

 

[Show-me]

Dude, your system is freak'n me out.

 

[FogSailing]

I agree with Show-Me and the others Ebb. Your post is a must on my morning review list. Thank you!!!

FS

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

U----f----b!!!!!!

 

[ebbnflow]

I figure I'd point some people to this post, since it is buried within many pages of ebbnflow's talk thread! Ebb, thanks for constantly sharing your ideas. All of us here have benefited from everything you've shared and continue to share. Even if we don't follow your system, we can at least know that tracking stock patterns really works.

Fabijo, thanks for digging up those links from last year. Looks like the ebbtracker is still creating a raucous after a year (good sign).

 

[ebbnflow]

And thanks guys, I'm kind of getting freaked by it, too. Following it has made my TSP shoot up the roof to new highs as well.

 

[budnipper1]

Fabijo, thanks for digging up those links from last year. Looks like the ebbtracker is still creating a raucous after a year (good sign).

You can say THAT again! I cruised another site that contains the word "strategy" in the address and discussions about the Ebbchart are dominating the threads. The "chief cook and bottle washer" of the site trys to downplay your success but she ain't faring too well in her attempts.

 

[Birchtree]

Would that be a Yahoo site with the goddess.

 

[budnipper1]

Would that be a Yahoo site with the goddess.

Remember, You said it, not ME!!!!:nuts:

 

[McDuck]

Ebb,

You are like the coolest person that I know !

 

[Minnow]

Ebb,

Thanks for all your help and I've been singing your praises to any and all at work that will listen -- some do but some don't -- you know how that goes. By the way, did someone tell you that the G-penny will pay on Friday, cuz I don't see how??

 

[DrunkenMonkey]

Speed Limits For The TSP?

by Mike Causey
09/05/07

In late August, in a single day, 25,000 Thrift Savings Plan investors
moved tens of thousands of dollars from stock market funds into the
super-safe treasury securities fund. Most of the IFTs (interfund
transactions) involved taking money out of the international
stock-indexed I fund and putting it into the G fund. And that wasn't
even a record day...

In early March about 35,000 investors moved $1.7 billion from stocks to
treasury securities and bonds. Again most of the IFTs involved
I-to-G-fund transactions.

While all this was going on, the half millions feds who are in target
date Lifecycle or L-funds were buying the I fund, and the other
stock-indexed S and C funds to maintain the target balance of their
portfolios. A major difference, in addition to the short-term vs.
long-term outlook, is that the L-fund transfers were made by daily
computer rebalancing whereas the individual stock-to-treasury
transactions were done on an individual basis.

The folks that run the federal 401(k) plan, and most financial planners,
say it's a long-term investment and that participants shouldn't be
emotional (scared or euphoric) about the short-term ups and downs of the
market. But they are also concerned because they say there are "some
large expenses" involved in mass movements of I-fund participants. Those
expense are now spread across the total TSP group of investors.

The federal TSP has the lowest administrative expenses in the 401(k)
business. Congress likes it that way and wants it to stay that way. Low
expenses, over a long career of investing, translate into in some cases
tens of thousand of extra dollars in your account. To that end, TSP
officials, are studying private sector 401(k) plans to see how they
handle IFTs of their employees.

Some private sector 401(k) plans (most of who do NOT have any matching
contributions for employee participants) limit the number of
transactions investors can make in a month or over the year. In some
cases investors simply cannot make more than the limited number of IFTs.
In others they are charged extra fees for exceeding the IFT speed limit.

Is that going to happen to the TSP? If so is it a good idea?

Stay tuned.

To reach me: mcausey@...



I wonder why 25,000 people moved from the I fund to the G fund? Any theories?