ebbnflow's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Sometimes your gut can be a saving grace - remember 1987 when the computers were in charge. Boy did I fill my shoes that day - but I held ready to pull the trigger and my gut said don't do it fool. I listened and survived to go on to further gains. The major guru of the time was Bob Prechter and he was preaching gloom and doom - heck he's still doing it.

 

[ebbnflow]

Good point Birchtree, but you know I was talking about my spare tire.

 

[ebbnflow]

Today's pattern 8 (contrarian) shows in the ebbchart tally with this stats.

C-fund (5/13) (+1.27%)
S-fund (5/14) (+0.05%)
I-fund (5/14) (+2.72%)

That says whatever you do, don't be on the S-fund (with only +0.05% gain). It's a better bet to go with the I-fund or even the C-fund.

The S-fund is lagging the C and I-fund today.

 

[rpatrick3]

Ebb: What pattern came up for Monday (10 Sep 2007)? How reliable is it? I did not see this info on your web page.
By the way, THANX a bunch for letting me in on your system. You have made me a few bucks - wish I had known about you sooner. I will be retiring in January and will need all the extra $ I can get.
You are my hero! Keep up the good work.



"Doc"

 

[ATCJeff]

Ebb: What pattern came up for Monday (10 Sep 2007)? How reliable is it? I did not see this info on your web page.
By the way, THANX a bunch for letting me in on your system. You have made me a few bucks - wish I had known about you sooner. I will be retiring in January and will need all the extra $ I can get.
You are my hero! Keep up the good work.



"Doc"

http://www.tsptalk.com/ebbchart.html

Monday -

= 100% I-Fund

Pattern 1: Up days (24/36 or 67%); total gain (+8.63%).

 

[Show-me]

Ebb: What pattern came up for Monday (10 Sep 2007)? How reliable is it? I did not see this info on your web page.
By the way, THANX a bunch for letting me in on your system. You have made me a few bucks - wish I had known about you sooner. I will be retiring in January and will need all the extra $ I can get.
You are my hero! Keep up the good work.



"Doc"

Hi rpatrick3,

Welcome to the game. Use caution this close to retirement, markets can turn on a dime.

Good luck and I hope time flies for you up to retirement.

 

[BeaverState]

I wonder if the ebbchart could be calibrated to work on a weekly basis? The results probably wouldn't be quite as good, but still maybe better than buy and hold. Just thinking ahead in case TSP ever imposes fees for Inter Fund Transfers.

 

[ebbnflow]

Don't forget it could be still be used for stocks, Rydex funds, Direxion funds, e-mini futures, ETFs, etc...the signals will remain the same.

 

[BeaverState]

Don't forget it could be still be used for stocks, Rydex funds, Direxion funds, e-mini futures, ETFs, etc...the signals will remain the same.

I've been toying with the idea of using it on an emerging market etf such as EEM (ishares) or VWO (Vanguard). They seem to go in the same direction as the I-fund but with more of a pop. Perhaps next week.

 

[airlift]

Ebb,

I only talk when I have to do so. But I thank you for the fine results I've been getting. Regarding the application of ebbtracker's signals as you have noted below, can you please elaborate further how to apply these signals to the different systems? Thanks and best wishes!

Don't forget it could be still be used for stocks, Rydex funds, Direxion funds, e-mini futures, ETFs, etc...the signals will remain the same.

 

[fabijo]

Don't forget it could be still be used for stocks, Rydex funds, Direxion funds, e-mini futures, ETFs, etc...the signals will remain the same.

And imagine the money you'd make if you were shorting on the tracker's red days instead of just sitting in cash! Especially if you were playing with puts and calls in the options market. Very nice indeed.

 

[airlift]

Fabijo,
But how would you apply the signals to stocks v. other instruments, unless you find an ETF that closely mirrors the TSP funds?

And imagine the money you'd make if you were shorting on the tracker's red days instead of just sitting in cash! Especially if you were playing with puts and calls in the options market. Very nice indeed.

 

[fabijo]

Fabijo,
But how would you apply the signals to stocks v. other instruments, unless you find an ETF that closely mirrors the TSP funds?

That's what I was thinking about. I would go with an ETF like EFA or one that tracks the S&P - like SPY. You could take it a step further and look into trading e-minis which are also tracking the indices.

As for ebb, he could probably to do a similar system for each of the sectors, then either trade in an ETF that tracks the whole sector, or just trade in a couple of the companies in that sector. Short the weak companies on the tracker's red days and go long on the strong companies on green days.

 

[airlift]

Fab,
You have hit the nail on its head. Unless I have the blessings of Ebbnflow as the creator, I would not apply the ebbtracker indistinctively. Some months ago, Spaf was kind enough to share the different ETFs that mirror the TSP funds in Scottrade.com. I have saved these somewhere. What I mean is that it would be too risky to apply the ebbtracker's signals without the priceless input of Ebbnflow. If you or Ebbnflow have other suggestions, please guide us through the process...TKS!

 

[fabijo]

The good thing about using stocks or etfs is that you are not limited by needing to put in the order by noon only to be effective at the 4pm closing price.

 

[ebbnflow]

Lots of investment advisors spewing out signals on the Internet. This one charges 1% (which is an arm and a leg, I would think) and they switch between Rydex funds and money market (safe haven). Check it out.

http://stocmarket.com/investp.htm

 

[ebbnflow]

On the ebbchart page for today...

For safe haven patterns we have:
-- Pattern 3: Down days (11/21 or 52%); total loss saved (-10.47%); (green, red, red).
-- Pattern 6: Down days (13/20 or 65%); total loss saved (-4.37%); (red, red, green).
-- Pattern 7: Down days (07/13 or 54%); total loss saved (-3.21%); (red, green, green). Contrarian pattern.
-- Total avg: Down days (31/54 or 57%); total loss saved (-17.48%). The gain's averages were added with no compounding.

The total should add up to -18.05%. Sorry.

 

[ATCJeff]

Boy your making headlines over at Yahoo.

 

[DrFaustus]

I've been playing around with two day patterns using the ebbchart and am very encouraged by what I am seeing. I'm going to start following that system on Monday ... hopefully it will pay off. I'll explain in my account talk as I go ...

 

[Fivetears]

Hey ebb,
I think you & you're program are going to get a visit from Agent Smith and all his buddies.