ebbnflow's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Just for the record:

Due to the early G-fund payoff we have a couple of revisions (one minor, one major) for the ebbchart. For next Monday, instead of the F-fund, we head over to the G-fund. For Tuesday, pattern 6 (C-red, S-red, I-green/safe haven) has been changed to pattern 2 (C-green, S-green, I-red/stocks). That's a switch from the F-fund to the I-fund.

 

[FogSailing]

Thanks Ebb...that gives me more time for sailing this weekend..

Not many people I know are willing to help me increase my holdings and provide me with more vacation time.

I just hope you don't decide to go contrarian on me!!!!

Always a Pleasure,

FS

 

[dell]

G fund Monday and I fund on Tuesday?

 

[ebbnflow]

You got it, dell!

 

[ebbnflow]

Heads-up:

Another Monday holiday for Japan! Nikkei will be closed.

 

[James48843]

Perhaps best that we say that never happened.

 

[budnipper1]

Just for the record:

Due to the early G-fund payoff we have a couple of revisions (one minor, one major) for the ebbchart. For next Monday, instead of the F-fund, we head over to the G-fund. For Tuesday, pattern 6 (C-red, S-red, I-green/safe haven) has been changed to pattern 2 (C-green, S-green, I-red/stocks). That's a switch from the F-fund to the I-fund.

The G-fund paid the penny today (Thursday). Does anyone know of an accurate way to determine when the G-fund pays the penny?

This system works as good as any, lately!!​

View attachment 2157​

 

[fabijo]

Perhaps best that we say that never happened.

Probably a good idea.

 

[Remo]

Wow, I'm in Ebb heaven right now. I moved into the F fund yesterday got my two I-pennies and avoided losing six F-pennies. Now, because of the "Ebbnosticator", it looks like I will get some more F-pennies as I make my IFT to the G-Lily. The question is, why did I wait so long to jump on the Ebb-wagon? Keep up the good work Ebb. :laugh:

 

[Bigdave125]

EBB, got a question. You have your previous charts posted in GIF format. Is there any way to post them in excel format, or do you know of a way to extract the data from the gif's and import them into excel? Maybe someone on this board has already done that. It's just that I was wanting to extract some data from the charts for comparison, but didn't want to manually type in all the previous data into excel if I didn't have to. Any help would be appreciated.

Thanks,
Bigdave


P.S.
Cutting and pasting doesn't work because they are in gif format!

JD

Nevermind. I went ahead and typed in what I needed. It was just the prices for different days and precent gain/loss. I got the info from the TSP website. Sorry for the dumb question.


Now, for the reason I extracted the data in the first place. Since we missed the G penny, it got me to thinking about how much of a risk versus reward it was for playing the F fund, vice just putting it in the G fund when we want to park it in safe haven.

I compared how much we have made in the F fund plays, to date, which comes out to -0.17 %, versus what we would have made if we had invested in the G fund on the days we had actually invested in the F fund (does that make sense?). Anyway, the gains for investing in the G fund on those days , instead of the F fund is +0.24 %. Obviously not much of a difference (Delta of .41 %).

I was just wondering what are the opinions on whether it is worth the risk of being exposed to losses (F fund) versus being in the G fund on those days based on the minimal differences in profit.

I think I would rather just park it in the G fund when we are out of the market! Easier on my nerves! Grin!
JMO.

BTW, I have the spreadsheet I used to extract the numbers if anyone want it. See attached. Also, LMN if I made any errors.



Bigdave

 

[fabijo]

Bigdave125, thanks for that info and for sharing the spreadsheet! I've also found that my returns are higher when I do not play the F Fund. Of course, I've created a monkey that never looks for the safe haven, so I wouldn't be going to G fund, either.

 

[RPM]

BTW, I have the spreadsheet I used to extract the numbers if anyone want it. See attached. Also, LMN if I made any errors.
Bigdave

Very cool, thank you :cheesy:

 

[kaitlinsnana]

I'm curious about something. When Ebb becomes a paid service (as he should), what happens to the message board. I haven't been here long enough to know how this played out in the past or the etiquette of how it should work. Would we be able to discuss EBB moves at all , or will we have to wait until the following day?? Almost seems simpler to make TSPtalk a paid site.

I know this is not a reply --- but I don't see the place to post a new or different comment.

Gail

 

[EW_ret]

The message board will continue, but all discussions about the EbbChart system, or ebbnflow, IFT moves will not be allowed. Those members who follow the EbbChart will not post their IFT moves in either the Automated Tracker or the accounts in Members' Accounts (no chat) forum.

I have defined “following a paid service” as moving 50%, or more, of assets into and out of the recommended fund(s) for six or more trade days. It’s the timing of the move, and using only the recommended fund(s), that counts as following for that day. When moving from the stock fund(s) to a safe haven, it does matter if the move is to G fund or F fund. It’s the fact you moved 50%, or more, from the recommended stock fund(s) to a safe haven.

The consequences of posting, or discussing, the moves of a paid will be a warning at first. Continued infractions could be cause for banishment, as determined by administrator.

 

[wv-girl]

The message board will continue, but all discussions about the EbbChart system, or ebbnflow, IFT moves will not be allowed. Those members who follow the EbbChart will not post their IFT moves in either the Automated Tracker or the accounts in Members' Accounts (no chat) forum.

I have defined “following a paid service” as moving 50%, or more, of assets into and out of the recommended fund(s) for six or more trade days. It’s the timing of the move, and using only the recommended fund(s), that counts as following for that day. When moving from the stock fund(s) to a safe haven, it does matter if the move is to G fund or F fund. It’s the fact you moved 50%, or more, from the recommended stock fund(s) to a safe haven.

The consequences of posting, or discussing, the moves of a paid will be a warning at first. Continued infractions could be cause for banishment, as determined by administrator.

Ok. So for those of us who do pay for the service, but maybe do not follow ebb 100%...is there a place for us to track our returns or do you suggest that we download our own separate page for tracking?

tia -Debbie

 

[amauldin]

A day without the I-Fund is like a day without sunshine.

Let's hope it is sunny all week.

 

[EW_ret]

You would track your own IFT moves if you use a paid service. For members that have an account, you can download a recent Weekly WebTracker or I can email your calculator worksheet to you so you have all your prior IFT moves. For members that use the Automated Tracker, you would copy/past your IFT record into a spreadsheet calculator worksheet. You would then have to add the fund prices for the trade dates. The purpose of the trackers is to use your own ideas and analysis when making IFT moves, not copying someone else moves. That can be done without entering your IFTs into one our trackers. The prizes awarded are for making good investment decisions.

Another possibility is I could track your IFT moves in a private calculator as a paid service. Tom and I have discussed this, but I did not see a market for this type a service. It’s not difficult to use the spreadsheet calculator to track your own IFT moves. One problem with this is how to expand the number of lines in the spreadsheet. The frequent traders need more than a hundred lines because they average two or more trades a week.

Ok. So for those of us who do pay for the service, but maybe do not follow ebb 100%...is there a place for us to track our returns or do you suggest that we download our own separate page for tracking?

tia -Debbie

It’s a big job, but somebody’s got to do it. This is why I am posting a definition of what constitutes following a paid service. It may have to be refined, but it’s my first attempt at letting our members know ahead of time what I am using.

It's going to be a nightmare for the Ebb Police to enforce. Some people will follow Ebb some of the time but not 100% of the time. Some people will follow Ebb with only a portion (perhaps 50%) of their account. Some people will follow their own system but accidentally wind up in the same fund as Ebb, thus making it appear that they are following Ebb when in fact they are not. The upshot is that all discussion involving Ebb and the EbbChart will disappear forever from the board.

[SIZE=-1]He Whose Name Shall Not Be Mentioned[/SIZE]

 

[wv-girl]

It's going to be a nightmare for the Ebb Police to enforce. Some people will follow Ebb some of the time but not 100% of the time. Some people will follow Ebb with only a portion (perhaps 50%) of their account. Some people will follow their own system but accidentally wind up in the same fund as Ebb, thus making it appear that they are following Ebb when in fact they are not. The upshot is that all discussion involving Ebb and the EbbChart will disappear forever from the board.

[SIZE=-1]He Whose Name Shall Not Be Mentioned[/SIZE]

Will the paid service have a "I fund discussion msg board" at all?

 

[qibovin]

Will the paid service have a "I fund discussion msg board" at all?

With all this talk about the complexity of enforcing a paid service while not ruining the open forum concept, I'd like to call peoples' attention to an earlier post of mine, not because I'm vain (but I'm not denying it) but because, for some reason it seemed to suddenly end what had been a very active dialogue taking place on the Weekly Tally Talk forum about a week ago (if anyone's interested in the whole script). Some good points were made and I was hoping Tom would chime in with some feasibility checks on some of them. I hate to see this awesome site fractionate into a dozen or so paid subsites because so much of this awesome dialogue could be lost.

This discussion is getting really complicated, but it does appear that it would be difficult to allow even partial following of a paid system to be tracked AND discussed without disclosing proprietary information. We are in a golden era right now, so to speak. with so many "systems" at everyone's disposal for free. I'm afraid that much will be lost if these systems become proprietary, but I still feel that those systems ought to be fairly compensated for the work of their respective "owners." Along the lines of earlier discussions about making TSPTalk a paid site, might it be possible to include fair, ?proportionate compensation to all sanctioned "systems" from an overall TSPTalk fee. That way everyone on the site (or a separate paid section of the site) could continue to talk about why they personally chose a particular fund and/or allocation IN RELATION TO all the various systems being tracked. Otherwise, the value of the MB will be greatly diminished as everyone breaks off into their own proprietary MBs and no one following any paid service, even just as another aid in making their own decisions, will be able to discuss the logic behind their moves without potentially divulging somebody else's paid service.

 

[kaitlinsnana]

It would be a shame to lose the spirit of the message boards. I've grown accustomed to this mix of colorful "characters", and I'm learning from the thought process that drives their moves. There must be a solution that works without killing the boards.

Gail