ebbnflow's Account Talk

[airlift]

Ebb,
I commend you for your preparadeness in finding the supporting statistics to substantiate your work. Your tracker has proven its worth, and I am being as disciplined as I can in order to reap the benefits of your system. Much of this has to do with probabilities, emotions, and the proper info to consider in chart pattern recognition. Thanks! Good luck to all!

 

[Hallatauer]

Thanks for the analysis... I've been of the view that you will have a down day or days but you will have up days. Just that you want the number of up days to outnumber your down days.. and what I've read here, Ebbnflow is 2-1 in favor of the up days. Damn great record to achieve!

 

[ebbnflow]

That's right, it's just a matter of having more up days than down days. If it's any consolation today, the move to the S-fund resulted in less of a hit than the I-fund.

 

[ebbnflow]

Of course that means you might hit that many in a row too.

With the winning percentage the ebbchart provides, I've had longer winning streaks than losing streaks. Most likely, the losing streaks are half as long as the winning streaks.

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,
I commend you for your preparadeness in finding the supporting statistics to substantiate your work. Your tracker has proven its worth, and I am being as disciplined as I can in order to reap the benefits of your system. Much of this has to do with probabilities, emotions, and the proper info to consider in chart pattern recognition. Thanks! Good luck to all!

Thanks airlift! It pays to be prepared.

 

[James48843]

lots of f fund om the forecast ahead.

Let's see if it works, and get back into the swing.

 

[GGal]

Ebb

Have you back-tested this thing to see how it would have fared in 2000? Or is that too daunting a task to undertake? I wonder what it would have had you do....

Just curious, since everybody presumes a Bear is around the Bend.

(reposted from the other day)

Thx
GGAL

 

[ebbnflow]

GGAL, sorry I missed your first post. My data didn't go as far back as 2000. What would have happened if we get into a situation like 2000? My guess -- I don't get hit with the full correction since I'm in only about 56% of the time. Even when the market is moving sideways or downwards, the market doesn't do it in a straight line. There would be pockets of up days in between which I hope the ebbtracker can ferret out. And as more and more days become red days, the contrarian patterns would begin to adjust and could start flipping back to its original safe haven/stock self. We might be able to see this as an indicator of the return of the bear market!

I have backtested 2005 with the ebbtracker tracking only the I-fund with great results. I've added the tracking of the C and S-fund (for cross-checking function) into its arsenal this year and if you check the charts, the new system has clearly beaten the ebbtracker's I-fund (old system) in eight of nine months so far. I'll say that is some improvement.

Moved back to the F-fund for Wednesday. Good luck to all!

 

[BeaverState]

Ebb

Have you back-tested this thing to see how it would have fared in 2000? Or is that too daunting a task to undertake? I wonder what it would have had you do....

Just curious, since everybody presumes a Bear is around the Bend.

(reposted from the other day)

Thx
GGAL

The F-fund was up 11 percent in 2000. So the ebbchart should have done pretty good on the safehaven days.

 

[Bigdave125]

Woo-Hoo! What a ride!!!!!


Thanks EBB!

 

[ebbnflow]

What a ride it is, Bigdave125! Great to be on the right side of the fence. I thought I saw a list of results for all the FOMC meetings on this board. I'd like to check out how many times the ebbtracker's been right or wrong. Does anyone have the list with the dates and results of the FOMC this year or since last year?

 

[fedgolfer]

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm

 

[qibovin]

Ebb-tabulous!
Another great call.

 

[Hallatauer]

Question... I'm going on vacation soon for two weeks. I will be without internet for most of that time and out of sync timewise also. (We will be in Australia) What is the best place to park your funds over along period like this? Just F Fund it and make the safe play or pick a stock fund or a mix and let it ride?

 

[ebbnflow]

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm

Thanks fedgolfer!

 

[ebbnflow]

Question... I'm going on vacation soon for two weeks. I will be without internet for most of that time and out of sync timewise also. (We will be in Australia) What is the best place to park your funds over along period like this? Just F Fund it and make the safe play or pick a stock fund or a mix and let it ride?

Can't even use the phone?

 

[Frixxxx]

Question... I'm going on vacation soon .....

I'd google for an internet cafe and steal away a couple of times to check on the trends. I did this while I was in Korea. At least your TV news will be in "down under" English. I had to get a translator.

 

[DrunkenMonkey]

Another excellent move Ebb. Thanks again.

 

[dell]

0.67

 

[huntva]

No worries following the Ebbchart.

I was in Australia recently, and every town/city had high speed Internet cafes with flat screen monitors. Very sophisticated. Just mind the time difference. When it is Monday here, it is Tuesday there.

RS