ebbnflow's Account Talk

[fabijo]

After more than half a year, five of the patterns on the ebbchart has panned out as expected, while three of the patterns didn't.

Dear kind sir -

Could you please tweak your system until it consistently gives 100% correct results? I do not like the possibility of being wrong on some days, no matter how little the wrong is.

 

[wv-girl]

Dear kind sir -

Could you please tweak your system until it consistently gives 100% correct results? I do not like the possibility of being wrong on some days, no matter how little the wrong is.

You ARe funny. but we luv ya anyway

 

[ebbnflow]

Sounds like we're all getting a little spoiled by the ebbchart.

 

[MADDOG]

u got to just luv use guys / gals
u know if a base ball player hit .600
he would probably make 100 million dollars EASILY
NOW
if the same people were playing in a shark tank
well i wouldn't like those odds
i recon if you're not the slowest swimmer

i luv numbers & metaphors

md

 

[lesta993]

Ebb, I am becoming a believer. Great job.

 

[USNAVYRETIRED]

Moving back to the I-fund. Looks like the safe haven move is not panning out at the moment. But the I-fund and S-fund are lagging big time. Good luck all!

You da' man Ebb. Keep spoiling us...PLEASE!
And thanks for sharing the Ebbtracker with us!

 

[FogSailing]

I guess we're all just "Spoiled Ebbs"!!!!!!!

FS

 

[qibovin]

Ebb, you're red hot! Thanks for sharing the wealth!!

I'm copying the following post from Dr. Faustus' Account Talk because it is pertinent to your audience. So as not to be considered an Ebbocrit or an Ebbpostate, please note that I'm not suggesting veering from the almighty Ebbchart (which I still visualize as strictly I or F), but rather to suggest some moderation in Ebbprovisation, such as going to the S fund for Monday. Just some food for thought:

Well, we've had two hits on pattern 4.5 since Jan 17, 07. The stats for that are: +0.08, +0.18, -0.91, -1.18, -0.71 for the G,F,C,S and I respectively.

We've had 16 hits on pattern 5 since Jan 16, 07 and the stats for that pattern are +0.25, -0.45, +0.81, +1.55, +0.20 for the G,F,C,S and I respectively.

So I'm not sure where I stand for Monday. Pattern 5 is not a strong pattern for S ( only +1.55% over 16 hits ), whereas 4.5 shows a possibility for significant downside. At this point, I am going to wait until Friday to see what other news is in the wind before making a call.

More Ebbstrapolation:

There are 4 instances since 16 JAN 07 that pattern 5 turned up on Monday with the following average results (% gains summed and divided by 4):
-0.09% C, -0.16% S, +0.17% I
Here, the I funds stands out as being the only equity with a positive average, and it was positive 3/4 instances. This is consistent with the overall observation that the I fund tends to do well on Monday. Incidently, this average gain for the I fund is almost exactly the same as the overall pattern 5 average gain for the I fund (since 16 JAN 07) of +0.18%. (C & S cannot say the same.)
Before you get too excited, however, there was one instance in which combo pattern 4.5 occured on a Monday, and it went horribly bad, actually contributing primarily to the overall bad showing of the 4.5 combo pattern noted by Dr. Faustus above.
So where does that leave us for tomorrow's move for Monday? Well, if you take a straight up arithmatic mean of the per-day gains and percent of positive occurances for 1) All occurances of pattern 5, 2) All pattern 5's on Monday, and 3) All combo patterns 4.5 (effectively weighting this average toward that one really ugly day (What else was going on April 30th?) here's what you get:
C fund positive <25% of the time with average gain of -0.11%
S fund positive ~50% of the time with average gain of -0.16%
I fund positive ~64% of the time with an average gain that is basically flat
Given this, I'm not sure that Ebb's move to the S fund for Monday is the wisest. I may put a little in the I hoping for the Monday effect. Bottom line is, just as this 3 red pattern was designed to avoid dips, this pattern has een some big dips occassionally, but on average shows gains. Ask yourself,
"Are you feeling lucky"

 

[Wrngway]

The Ebb herd in action!!

To the I-Fund!! And step on it!

http://video.google.com/videoplay?d...99&start=10&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=2

And another example of the Ebbtracker investing sidestepping losses in defiance of common sense...

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6735099802464592262

 

[fabijo]

u know if a base ball player hit .600
he would probably make 100 million dollars EASILY

I think I figured out a new system. I will only follow ebb 60% of the time and go against him 40% of the time. That way, I'll be right 100% of the time! Now if I make those distributions random, it should statistically play itself out to better my odds... right?? :blink: or something? I better get out of cartoon land.

 

[SkyPilot]

I think I figured out a new system. I will only follow ebb 60% of the time and go against him 40% of the time. That way, I'll be right 100% of the time! Now if I make those distributions random, it should statistically play itself out to better my odds... right?? :blink: or something? I better get out of cartoon land.

I think we will need to hire some monkeys to get this done right!

 

[FogSailing]

Qibovin, your logic is Ebbstraordinary!!!!!

FS

 

[nnuut]

I think we will need to hire some monkeys to get this done right!

Here Ya go!
View attachment 2118 View attachment 2119

 

[crhuss]

OK, So I am an avid Ebbchart follower....most of the time. I need to make a decision before I go to bed tonight because I won't be around tommorrow in the AM. So is it the S fund or the I fund for Monday? I am sooooo confused!!!

 

[fabijo]

Here Ya go!
View attachment 2118 View attachment 2119

Goodie! Now I need to give a 60% chance the monkey will nod yes and a 40% chance the monkey will nod no. I'll have to do it the old fashioned way. Get a barrel of 100 monkeys, 60 yes monkeys and 40 no monkeys. I'll just pull one out and see what it says. This is a proven scientific method.

 

[kaitlinsnana]

I couldn't make a decision either, so I split between I and S.

Gail

 

[crhuss]

Ok, so you are playing it safe, Kaitlinsnana. 50%50% S and I. So come tomorrow, and I is way up and S isn't. Are you going to be unhappy because you didn't make as much as you could? Or are you going to be happy that you made something? I've noticed that those who play the middle of the fence, which I have done many times, don't make the big gains, and are in the middle of the road as far as earnings. If that's good enough, then that's good enough, you didn't lose big either. But if you want the big gains, take the risk. Take a look at what Ebb and the top earners do.

 

[jeburnside]

I can't complain about the chart..I've made almost a grand this quarter by using it. If the chart says move...I move...

Jimmy

 

[DrunkenMonkey]

Used monkey for sale. Call 1-800-tsp-darts.

 

[fedgolfer]

Looks like we may be caught in the Ebbsaw today