ebbnflow's Account Talk

[ExtremeWX]

Ebb,
Where can I find your spin chart?
I click on the "SpinChart" link in your signature and it takes me to a post on April 2nd.

Thanks!

 

[merlin]

Click on ebbchart

 

[merlin]

Ebb
When I click on the ebbnchart, I get the current spinchart. But if I click on the spinchart, I get April 2. At least I still can get the current spinchart.

 

[ebbnflow]

ExtremeWX, I don't know why the link is not going to the latest spinchart update. It works fine when I click on it, but like merlin says, click on the ebbchart and go to page 5 (post #54).

ExtremeWX, have you tried hitting the refresh button (F5). Or try holding the CTRL key while clicking on the spinchart link.

 

[ebbnflow]

Went I-hopping for tomorrow as planned. Good luck to all!

 

[ebbnflow]

Going to the F-fund for Monday. The G-penny should be paying on Monday, so it was a toss up for me. Have a good weekend!

 

[ebbnflow]

The ebbtracker gained +.21% and the I-fund took a -.41% hit for the week. Not counting next Monday, it's up +1.46 for the month of April. Not that good, but I've learned a lot of stuff that I will be applying in the future. One of the things I've learned was to stay on the I-fund instead of jumping to the S-fund when an x-check occurs (more profitable). The other was the mistake I made playing the full moon week where I missed picking up a gain of almost +2%. Let's start thinking positive folks and have a happy weekend.

 

[ebbnflow]

How do you see yourself as a trader: a Bull, a Bear or maybe...(look out!)

 

[cap32]

EBB thanks for the great work as for deer in the head lights are we talking work:cheesy: or he stock market:blink: :suspicious: !!

 

[airlift]

Ebb

 

[airlift]

Ebb,
we are watching your headlights to get some guidance, so make sure your ebbtracker is up to standards!

 

[ebbnflow]

Airlift, I'll try me best.

 

[ebbnflow]

EBB thanks for the great work as for deer in the head lights are we talking work:cheesy: or the stock market :suspicious: !!

Cap32, thanks. It's just a heads-up for those feeling like a deer caught in the headlights. Watch out for jayhawker, he's already bagged two of you this past week!!!

Believe it or not - I hit ANOTHER DEER! I was on the same highway and was on the lookout this time. And driving slower. Really watching. And this damn deer came out of NOWHERE! Stop the insanity!

 

[BigGuy]

Ebb:

I think I got this right, but want to make sure. That you show two dollar signs for Tuesday, and two stops on Wednesday, means that you get in by noon on Monday (for Tuesday) and out by noon on Tuesday (for Wednesday).

Is this correct?

Scott

 

[ebbnflow]

Yep, you got it right, BigGuy!

 

[BigGuy]

Ebb:

How long have you working on your model?

Also, how long have you been actively managing your TSP?

Scott

 

[airlift]

Ebb,
I know you will! You have my full respect. Thank you.

Airlift, I'll try me best.

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb:

How long have you working on your model?

Also, how long have you been actively managing your TSP?

Scott

I actively managed my TSP in 2004 and did well. In late 2005, I started working on the ebbtracker because I wasn't satisfied with what I was doing. I backtested that year using the ebbtracker and got great results (+30%). Followed the ebbtracker tracking the I-fund for 2006 and got the same results. Earlier this year (2007), the ebbtracker started slow and I sought to improve it by tracking the C and S-fund along with the I-fund.

Since January 16, 2007 the cross-checking function provided by the C and S-fund alone has helped the ebbtracker with a gain of over +5.00%. By following the ebbchart with its simple rules of cross-checking (2 or more stops = safe haven / 2 or more greens = stocks) it has shown me that it's possible to get over +13.00% gain for the year-to-date.

Note: I stopped using the S-fund and am now using the I-fund exclusively when going to stocks (more profitable!)

 

[BigGuy]

Clearly I'm new, having been doing this for about a month. I do appreciate everyone's candor.

What are the main factors that you look at in the Ebbtracker?

Also , are you pretty confident that the Ebbtracker will predict a large sustained downturn in the market?

Thanks
Scott

 

[ebbnflow]

Clearly I'm new, having been doing this for about a month. I do appreciate everyone's candor.

What are the main factors that you look at in the Ebbtracker?

Also , are you pretty confident that the Ebbtracker will predict a large sustained downturn in the market?

Thanks
Scott

The ebbtracker compares historical patterns from the past to the present. The patterns are from data I gathered from the fund's prices (C, S and I) and the dollar (for I-fund only). Since the ebbtracker puts me in stocks only about 60% of the time, I'm pretty sure I won't get hit with the whole enchilada (correction). Between the ebbtracker and cross-checking, I'm confident that I'd be able to pare any losses even more.

So far this year, I've been able to sidestep four of the biggest dips including February 27 (-3.16%). The others were March 02 (-1.25%), March 03 (-1.86%) and March 13 (-1.77%).