ebbnflow's Account Talk

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Guys,
I am copying a partial exchange from yesterdays columnist conversation section at RealMoney.com This is a pay site and I don't have the intention of violating anybody's rights. But I found it necessary to post these partial opinions. Frankly, I don't think I am violating intellectual or copyright laws, because, in any event, it is my understanding that RM.com is a financial, internet, newspaper. I hope this helps in order to sort out if we are going to plummet or not.

COPY and Quote below:

Watching Nazz 2508
Jack Steiman
2/22/07 1:26 PM EST
The old high of 2508 on the Nazz, which was overtaken three trading days back, is so far acting as very strong support on any attempted selling. Very bullish action.
Position: Long HHH

Bonds
Helene Meisler
2/22/07 1:35 PM EST
It's been a while since I've discussed the action in bonds, but as you might recall, at 4.80% on the 10-year I was looking for a retreat back down. It was my thinking that we would see a pullback that would give us the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders bottom (in the TNX, the yield) or if you prefer a H&S top in the Lehman 20+ Treasury (TLT:Amex) fund. It took a while, but the pullback finally arrived. And now I look at that chart of the TNX and I see that right shoulder I was looking for forming (i.e., higher rates). I'll cover it more fully in Friday's column.
Position: none

P/C Says Don't Be Bearish
Jack Steiman
2/22/07 2:12 PM EST
Eight consecutive readings well above 1.0. You cannot be bearish here in my opinion.
Position: Long IYT

Impressive Action
Jim Cramer
2/22/07 2:30 PM EST
Some truly impressive action in a pair of 8s -- Dynegy (DYN:NYSE) and Qwest (Q:NYSE). Looks like breakout for both.
Position: none

When selling is bullish...
Jack Steiman
2/22/07 3:10 PM EST
If you're bullish you have to LOVE that we have had nine straight readings of 1.14 or more including a reading of 1.26 on the P/C ratio. Classic bull market behavior. When the market is nearing its top, you'll see selling met by readings in the 0.70 area or lower. Complacency will be kicking in but here we have the other side of the coin. Pessimism rules on any and all selling. Staying very bullish near term.
Position: LOng IYT HHH PH

Q
Jack Steiman
2/22/07 4:00 PM EST
Q is in an 8 month base with the massive breakout at 8.55. If this occurs it has room to run and run hard. The bottom of this base is at 7.95. It's getting tighter and tighter. The Macd is perfect and it should make the breakout soon. Position: No position-Will be getting one tomorrow
 
The switch from the system's use of the ebbtracker's I-fund (with cross-checking) the last couple of days based on our noon cutoff situtation is backfiring. It didn't matter to the ebbtracker whether the market was red or green before noon last year -- it shouldn't matter now! I believe that the missing ingredient to the system has been found already. I'm talking about the cross-checking of the I-fund with that of the C and S-fund. Made an IFT to the I-fund for next Monday. Have a good weekend to all! :)

Side note: I missed out on +.08 cents yesterday and another +.17 cents today (according to 350z) :mad:
 
ebbnflow said:
The switch from the system's use of the ebbtracker's I-fund (with cross-checking) the last couple of days based on our noon cutoff situtation is backfiring. It didn't matter to the ebbtracker whether the market was red or green before noon last year -- it shouldn't matter now! I believe that the missing ingredient to the system has been found already. I'm talking about the cross-checking of the I-fund with that of the C and S-fund. Made an IFT to the I-fund for next Monday. Have a good weekend to all! :)

Side note: I missed out on +.08 cents yesterday and another +.17 cents today (according to 350z) :mad:
Click to expand...

Ebbnflow,

I hate to miss a gain as much as any body, but IMO, we are nearing a top or getting close to it. Staying in right now would be like nibbling at the top. I don't want to be critical of your tracker but, it seems like it's chasing the funds. Not sure if you noticed that because sometimes when you're following a system, you have to take a step back to see it.

I just noticed your tracker has you in the I for Monday. Does your tracker see the dollar falling on Monday?

GL:)
 
350zCommTech said:
Ebbnflow,

IMO, we are nearing a top or getting close to it. Staying in right now would be like nibbling at the top.
Click to expand...

Agreed. That's how I got burnt last summer... chasing.

(G)'s alright for me while awaiting the eventual sell-off.
 
Rod said:
Agreed. That's how I got burnt last summer... chasing.

(G)'s alright for me while awaiting the eventual sell-off.
Click to expand...

It's all 20-20 hindsight.

Tom has been on the sidelines waiting for the eventual sell-off. In the meantime, he's missed a lot of gains.

It's a tough call.
 
weatherweenie said:
It's all 20-20 hindsight.

Tom has been on the sidelines waiting for the eventual sell-off. In the meantime, he's missed a lot of gains.

It's a tough call.
Click to expand...

There's a difference between waiting for a 1-2% pullback(Me) verses waiting for a 4-5% pullback(Tom). This market is still a strong bull market. Just look at the action in the last 5 days. 1-2% pullbacks might be all we'll get until the "eventual sell-off/correction", which I believe is coming.
 
350zCommTech said:
Ebbnflow,

I hate to miss a gain as much as any body, but IMO, we are nearing a top or getting close to it. Staying in right now would be like nibbling at the top. I don't want to be critical of your tracker but, it seems like it's chasing the funds. Not sure if you noticed that because sometimes when you're following a system, you have to take a step back to see it.

I just noticed your tracker has you in the I for Monday. Does your tracker see the dollar falling on Monday?

GL:)
Click to expand...

Yep, the ebbtracker sees the dollar dropping some on Monday. Speaking of top, nobody seems to know what the top is during this bullish market we're experiencing. Being too much of a chart-watching technician can hurt, too. Just ask Show-me, the negative divergence he saw in the charts kept him from going into stocks for most of the year. That said, I'm sure he would be in the thick of things soon. :)
 
Yahoo's ticker for Europe (^FTSE, ^FCHI, etc.) are running 30 mins. late.

Anyways, made my move back to the G-fund. I'll be back in the I-fund by Wednesday. Good luck to all. :)
 
I've only tracked the F-fund using the ebbtracker lately (Feb. 07). It's just the price pattern I'm getting. If I put in the G-fund, that means the ebbtracker sees it as a red day for the F-fund. Been right three out of four times, so far. No gain, but shows promise following it. :)
 
ebbnflow said:
I've only tracked the F-fund using the ebbtracker lately (Feb. 07). It's just the price pattern I'm getting. If I put in the G-fund, that means the ebbtracker sees it as a red day for the F-fund. Been right three out of four times, so far. No gain, but shows promise following it. :)
Click to expand...

Thanks
 
Ebb,
Congratulations:) . Nothing is perfect, but you have not only been doing well with the I fund, but also, by going to G yesterday you have avoided the very nasty correction we are experiencing. I followed you to G and I can't regret it. The USD has dropped quite a lot, so we could see a rebound to the upside when it reaches support. Econ numbers are coming out this morning, and the IRAN situation is in the front burner. Now we have to see if this is a buying opportunity or if things are bound to get nastier!!?
 
Thanks, sponsor! We deserve to get a break now and then. :)

Things could have been easier if the ebbtracker has me on safe haven for tomorrow. There will be better days to play the market than today, but I'm going to take the chance and be the sacrificial lamb. Dang, it could get ugly in Japan tonight. That said, I'm doing an IFT to the I-fund. Good luck to all. Watch the market from the sidelines and wait for the smoke to clear. :)
 
Ebb,

Great call on being out of the market. What does your tracker say for the first part of March.
 
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