ebbnflow's Account Talk

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Anybody want a mulligan? I'd settle for a +FV today. :D

Staying on the I-fund for tomorrow, but will be exiting by Friday (dead cat might be on its way back down). :rolleyes:
 
I'm moving out, too! Dang, this market can turn quickly, last night it was all green on the Eurozone. Just IFT'ed to the G-fund. Gonna wait a couple of days maybe, for the smoke to clear. Good luck all! :)
 
Thanks, sponsor! It's not shaping up well for the market today. Dell is down, Berkshire Hathaway is down also and might drag the S-fund with it. S&P 500 futures down 8 1/2 pts, Nasdaq fut. down 18 3/4 pts. Before rushing headlong in stocks, let's not forget that a sidestep is as good as a gain. Good luck to all. :)

And to top it all, the Hezbollah has rearmed in Lebanon! :worried:
 
I followed the ebbtracker again. You are spot on, if we can sidestep the blow, a comeback at lower levels is more profitable and one can use the preserved capital to grow the nest-egg at a faster rate and percentage.
 
sponsor said:
I followed the ebbtracker again. You are spot on, if we can sidestep the blow, a comeback at lower levels is more profitable and one can use the preserved capital to grow the nest-egg at a faster rate and percentage.
Click to expand...

Im beginning to think this way to. Maximizing the TSP may end up being more about avoiding the bottoms than trying to play the bounces. Who knows...
 
ChemEng,
maximizing the TSP is about both, avoiding bottoms and playing the bounces from a lower level. This way you also can accumulate a bigger number of shares. I feel very comfortable acknowledging the excellent and positive efforts by Tom, Trader Fred, Ebbnflow, Fabijo, and others who are trying to time the markets.

ChemEng said:
Im beginning to think this way to. Maximizing the TSP may end up being more about avoiding the bottoms than trying to play the bounces. Who knows...
Click to expand...
 
MUTUAL FUND ARTICLES BY ULLI G. NIEMANN


According to InvesTech’s monthly newsletter it turns out that, measuring from 1928 to 2002, if you started with $10 and you followed the famous buy-and-hold strategy, that $10 would become $10,957. If you somehow missed the best 30 months, your $10 would only be $154. However, if you managed to miss the 30 worst months, your $10 would be $1,317,803! Thus, my point: Missing the worst periods has profound impact on long-run compounding. There are times when you end up better off by being out of the market.
Interestingly enough, if you missed the 30 best months and the 30 worst months, your $10 would still be worth $18,558, which is 80% higher than the buy-and-hold strategy. This all comes about because stock prices generally go down faster than they go up. Wall Street and most people tend to overlook the value of minimizing loss, and that is exactly why the bear demolished more than 50% of many peoples' portfolios while I and those who trusted my advice escaped the worst of the beast's rampage.
© Ulli G. Niemann
 
sponsor said:
ChemEng,
maximizing the TSP is about both, avoiding bottoms and playing the bounces from a lower level. This way you also can accumulate a bigger number of shares. I feel very comfortable acknowledging the excellent and positive efforts by Tom, Trader Fred, Ebbnflow, Fabijo, and others who are trying to time the markets.
Click to expand...

From a strictly mathematical perspective--youre absolutely right. (Well almost, optimization classes will say you have to prioritize 1 of the 2 goals with the highest priority. But close enough.) But from a pragmatic point of view, catching bounces within our trading limitations is much more difficult than dodging big dips and buying in around the trough.
 
Chem,
With all due respect. I am not a mathematician. However, please understand that Trader Fred, Ebbnflow, and others have developed some sort of system which allows them to repeat and reproduce success at an acceptable level which presumably will help us time the markets profitably. At some point the system could fail, because they are using past pricing movement of stocks, indexes, currencies, and so forth; and they can be surprised by unknown events. I know that many systems have failed in the past, as in the early 2000's, with the Tech bubble. I would hypothesize, however, that if you can increase your capital quickly and extensively in a short time frame, by using a trading system, you may be able to absorb the unknown shocks that the market throws at us in a better or wealthier position, than if you have a smaller nestegg. By the time the trading system collapses due to external or unforseen events, you do a defensive IFT int the G fund, and keep the bulk of your wealth. Of course, I am aware that I am oversimplifing the issue....

quote=ChemEng;80904]From a strictly mathematical perspective--youre absolutely right. (Well almost, optimization classes will say you have to prioritize 1 of the 2 goals with the highest priority. But close enough.) But from a pragmatic point of view, catching bounces within our trading limitations is much more difficult than dodging big dips and buying in around the trough.[/quote]
 
RunningFool said:
MUTUAL FUND ARTICLES BY ULLI G. NIEMANN


According to InvesTech’s monthly newsletter it turns out that, measuring from 1928 to 2002, if you started with $10 and you followed the famous buy-and-hold strategy, that $10 would become $10,957. If you somehow missed the best 30 months, your $10 would only be $154. However, if you managed to miss the 30 worst months, your $10 would be $1,317,803! Thus, my point: Missing the worst periods has profound impact on long-run compounding. There are times when you end up better off by being out of the market.
Interestingly enough, if you missed the 30 best months and the 30 worst months, your $10 would still be worth $18,558, which is 80% higher than the buy-and-hold strategy. This all comes about because stock prices generally go down faster than they go up. Wall Street and most people tend to overlook the value of minimizing loss, and that is exactly why the bear demolished more than 50% of many peoples' portfolios while I and those who trusted my advice escaped the worst of the beast's rampage.
© Ulli G. Niemann
Click to expand...

Thanks for the article. Kind of put things in perspective. :)
 
ChemEng, the other day I saw you IFT to the I-fund then bailed out at the last second. Almost everyone was jumping to the I-fund. Was it the herd mentality that led you to change your mind? You made the right choice at the time when the I-fund took a hit, just curious. :)
 
Today, the ebbtracker's I-fund was green, but I got two stop signals from the C and S-fund. That's the cross-checking function at work. The last time that happened was on Jan. 25 (I-fund -.98%). I'm glad I got to do it right this time (I-fund -1.25%). Just updated the ebbtracker for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Have a good weekend everybody! :)

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=81121#post81121
 
Last edited:
It's hard to keep our emotions in check, but after taking in the results of the ebbtracker (followed correctly), I'm riding this one like a mechanical bull or bear (if need be). :)

It's pretty hard to argue with these numbers:

From Jan. 16 to 31: +2.66%
From Feb. 01 to 28: +2.75%
From Mar. 01 to 02: -0.85%
 
It is hard indeed!

ebbnflow said:
It's hard to keep our emotions in check, but after taking in the results of the ebbtracker (followed correctly), I'm riding this one like a mechanical bull or bear (if need be). :)

It's pretty hard to argue with these numbers:

From Jan. 16 to 31: +2.66%
From Feb. 01 to 28: +2.75%
From Mar. 01 to 02: -0.85%
Click to expand...
 
March number (-0.85%) looks even better when compared to the C (-1.41%), S (-1.87%) and I-fund (-2.17%).

Great numbers, but I hope nobody's confusing the ebbtracker's numbers with ebbnflow's numbers. :o

I'm just discovering the ebbtracker with the new cross-checking function same time as everyone. :)
 
This is only to our benefit.

ebbnflow said:
March number (-0.85%) looks even better when compared to the C (-1.41%), S (-1.87%) and I-fund (-2.17%).

Great numbers, but I hope nobody's confusing the ebbtracker's numbers with ebbnflow's numbers. :o

I'm just discovering the ebbtracker with the new cross-checking function same time as everyone. :)
Click to expand...
 
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