ebbnflow's Account Talk

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Thanks fabijo! Today, a buy signal would have been better, but I'll take the +.09% from the F-fund. I got to tip my hat to FUTURESTRADER for making me think of tracking the F-fund. I do believe that in the long run, tracking the funds with the ebbtracker can boost my percentage in picking the right fund to be in. I forgot who it was who showed a chart of the S&P 500 having equal up and down days through the years. We only need to nudge the meter a little bit over the halfway point in order to make money in our TSP. Whatever our strategy, picking up the G-penny, watching and charting, or I-fund hopping (when market is green at cutoff), it will all add up in the end. Anyways, let's all keep on tracking. :)

Ebbtracker updated: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=41;post#492
 
Ebb,
The tracker will have good and bad days, and we can't win them all, but it seems to have picked up the right signal. Today the F fund was the winner. Good stuff! Hope you keep calbrating and monitoring the situation.
 
sponsor said:
Ebb,
The tracker will have good and bad days, and we can't win them all, but it seems to have picked up the right signal. Today the F fund was the winner. Good stuff! Hope you keep calbrating and monitoring the situation.
Click to expand...

Sponsor, I will and thanks! :)
 
gypsy.gif
For what it's worth:

............MON..TUE..WED
C-fund....
ggr.gif

S-fund....
grg.gif

I-fund.....
grg.gif


a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G-fund)
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I or S-fund). Optional: Use S-fund if market (DJI) is red before noon.

Following the rules above, I'm on I-fund for Monday, the G-fund for Tuesday and the I-fund for Wednesday.
 
ebbnflow said:
Following the rules above, I'm on I-fund for Monday, the G-fund for Tuesday and the I-fund for Wednesday.
Click to expand...

You love that I fund, don't ya! It's been lagging the S fund this year. I guess it will have a lot of catching up to do. That would be one fun wave to ride.
 
Hey fabijo, everybody loves breakfast at the I-hop! My gut says stay low and get back in next Wednesday instead of Monday. I know it's risky, but I feel like I can take a big hit and still recover, so I'll fire away and go I-hopping (more like hoping) for Monday. Good luck to all. :)
 
Wow, people (me incl.) who I-hopped for today were really wishing for a -FV so we can pick up the payback next Monday. No such luck. Good week, but it could have been better. :)

Ebbtracker updated: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=41;post#492

Since its inception (Jan. 16, 2007) the new ebbtracker's cross-checking system has outpaced the other funds for a total of +3.20%, so far. Ebbtracker's tracking of the I-fund is lagging, but the cross-checking function more than compensates for it. Here's to better luck next week. :)

From Jan. 16 to date:

............ebbtracker...tsp prices
C-fund...+2.35%.......+0.64%
S-fund...+3.07%.......+2.46%
I-fund....+0.91%.......+2.88%
 
Ebb,
I am not giving up yet. Since you started to be tracked, back in May or June 2006, you have built up a fine track record by obtaining excellent gains. I know you have some sort of proprietary rights which you are applying, but that you also are showing intelligent flexibility by tweaking your system and including other funds. This is very important because it reflects more closely the reality of market movements, and currency movements (I don't know if it is at all possible, but you should factor-in some leeway to meet unexpected surprises. Or, am I expecting too much from your tracker, or from any tracker?). I hope that longer term, the ebbtracker recovers profitably. Keep the Stars in your sights and go for it!
 
Sponsor, thanks for reminding me to be flexible (past and present). I know I've been reluctant to change in the past, but I have seen the errors of my way. :)
 
ebbnflow said:
Wow, people (me incl.) who I-hopped for today were really wishing for a -FV so we can pick up the payback next Monday. No such luck. Good week, but it could have been better. :)

Ebbtracker updated: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=2949&page=41;post#492

Since its inception (Jan. 16, 2007) the new ebbtracker's cross-checking system has outpaced the other funds for a total of +3.20%, so far. Ebbtracker's tracking of the I-fund is lagging, but the cross-checking function more than compensates for it. Here's to better luck next week. :)

From Jan. 16 to date:

............ebbtracker...tsp prices
C-fund...+2.35%.......+0.64%
S-fund...+3.07%.......+2.46%
I-fund....+0.91%.......+2.88%
Click to expand...

Ebb,

Please don't take this the wrong way. But I am having trouble seeing the success. You are down .65% on the Rokid Tally. Are you saying that you were down almost 4% before Jan 16th and you have rallied 3.2% since then.

I really want for somebody on this board to start having long term consistant success with their "system" so I can latch on for the ride. So I am routing for you, but it's not adding up for me right now.
 
Wheels, sorry for the confusion. Early this year I was down -2.86%, so by Jan. 16 I decided to incorporate the C and S-fund into the ebbtracker system. I thought I could use it to act as a cross-checker against the ebbtracker's tracking of the I-fund. On Jan. 25 the cross-checking function paid off when the I-fund produced a stop signal, but the C and S-fund gave a buy signal. I was able to play the S-fund for a gain of +.95%. The next day, the cross-checking function came into play again. This time I got a buy signal from the I-fund, but stop signals from both C and S-fund. I went ahead and went with the I-fund anyway and lost -0.98% for the day despite the double stop signals (I didn't know better). After this big loss, I tabulated the results from Jan. 16 (start of cross-checking) through Jan. 26 and found out that I would have done great if I had only followed the new cross-checking function correctly from the start.

This new thread I created will explain more about the new system: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=4010 :)
 
Dang, we got a great thing going here on our TSP. It's like a virtual casino and sports betting all rolled into one! But without the house vigorish, of course. :D
 
ebbnflow said:
Dang, we got a great thing going here on our TSP. It's like a virtual casino and sports betting all rolled into one! But without the house vigorish, of course. :D
Click to expand...

I love it! It is forcing each of us to compete (in a friendly way) so that we'll always be developing better methods. One day, when I'm an old man in the rocking chair, I'll be telling my grandkids, "Yeah, I remember back in the day staying up for days trying to outprogram the other TSPers. It's because of those days that you're able to have your own virtual reality game room."
 
I can't see the graphics on your 02-09-2007, 05:56 AM post because of my office system's filter, but I think it recommended NOT to be in C/S/I on Tuesday? Thanks!
 
Warrenlm said:
I can't see the graphics on your 02-09-2007, 05:56 AM post because of my office system's filter, but I think it recommended NOT to be in C/S/I on Tuesday? Thanks!
Click to expand...

Yup, same problem here. Last I heard it was G fund for Tuesday. I can't tell if that's changed though.
 
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