ebbnflow's Account Talk

[ATCJeff]

EBB,

Thanks so much for the response. I have saved the above link in my favs now!

So, I have one question, please. The iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA) which is shown to have gone up today by 0.44%, vice down by -0.51%, really doesn't have anything to do with this? If so, then I'm confused as to why it is shown at the bottom of the pages here! I thought this was representitive of the I fund, but apparently not!


Thanks, EBB! And sorry for the dumb questions!

Bigdave

It's a close representation of the I fund. It's the best we have that tracks close to our I fund.

 

[ATCJeff]

ANY day you make money is fine with me. However, I tend to get a bit nervous when the Ebbtracker recommends jumping between I & S funds several days in a row. Anytime you trade in and out of "I" there's a chance for an FV. That's a disadvantage

The upside in trading "I" is that you can get a good sense of how the overseas market did prior to the noon deadline. In a sense, the FV tends to even the playing field a bit.

When you're trading C & S and the large reversals come after noon, then it's not much different than catching an FV IMO.

I've seen some do a 50/50 split so you avoid a possible FV instead of moving back and forth.

 

[SkyPilot]

I've seen some do a 50/50 split so you avoid a possible FV instead of moving back and forth.

I guess it depends on what concerns the individual most. 50/50 means reduced risk, but also reduced reward. So, bottom line, which is the greater risk; lower reward or -FV...

Seems that no one has done too well second guessing the EbbTracker, not even Ebb himself .

 

[RamesesTG]

This is just an observation on my part. It seems that alot of people want to know exactly how Ebb does what he does. I know that he's done alot of work to get the system to work as well as it has, but for me personally I don't need to know. He could be throwing darts, bones or calling Madam Cleo for all I care. The bottom line is...well the bottom line.

I'm a firm believer in Ebb's system, that's why I subscribe. The price for the service is a very small price to pay considering the returns that we are getting. Keep up the good work Ebb and thank you for sharing your system with the rest of us.

 

[James48843]

.... It seems that alot of people want to know exactly how Ebb does what he does. I know that he's done alot of work to get the system to work as well as it has, but for me personally I don't need to know. He could be throwing darts, bones or calling Madam Cleo for all I care. The bottom line is...well the bottom line.

....

Exactly.

Ebb has better trained monkeys than anyone else I've found. His monkeys can throw darts a whole lot better than mine can.

 

[Red_65_Mustang]

For someone with a $10,000 TSP balance, the ebb system would only have to do 1.62% better annually than that person would do on their own. I have already made the annual fee back.

 

[charmed855]

This is just an observation on my part. It seems that alot of people want to know exactly how Ebb does what he does. I know that he's done alot of work to get the system to work as well as it has, but for me personally I don't need to know. He could be throwing darts, bones or calling Madam Cleo for all I care. The bottom line is...well the bottom line.

I come here to increase my TSP balance AND learn. Ebb does the former, but my natural curiosity has never been itched by explainations I've seen of the Ebbtracker system. In that respect, I'd pay more to continue learning from folks like Griffin, 12%, etc.

 

[Spaf]

James,

We were suppose to keep it a secrete!!!!....:laugh::laugh:

Exactly.

Ebb has better trained monkeys than anyone else I've found. His monkeys can throw darts a whole lot better than mine can.

 

[Hallatauer]

Back from vacation ya'll... trying to catch up with the message boards. TSP site requires my new account number but wouldn't accept my password. Now I'm locked out until I get a new password snail mailed... <sigh> The internet is supposed to make things easier? I just hope I don't lose out on too many gains while I am in limbo.

 

[Aviator_Guy]

Back from vacation ya'll... trying to catch up with the message boards. TSP site requires my new account number but wouldn't accept my password. Now I'm locked out until I get a new password snail mailed... <sigh> The internet is supposed to make things easier? I just hope I don't lose out on too many gains while I am in limbo.

As long as you know your account number, you can make a trade by just calling the TSP office... I have done that many times in the past... Allow yourself some extra phone time because of the high volume, but it can be done... Good Luck. TSP phone is 8779683778

 

[nsurf9]

TSP will also fax your new account to you. I had them make IFT and fax my new account to me. It didn't take very long ~10 minutes. The TSP phone number is on its sight.

 

[Hallatauer]

As long as you know your account number, you can make a trade by just calling the TSP office... I have done that many times in the past... Allow yourself some extra phone time because of the high volume, but it can be done... Good Luck. TSP phone is 8779683778

Wow... didn't know that... thanks for the info!

 

[kitepig]

Hi, I'm relatively new to this forum but am an avid follower and now a subscriber to EBB's system. Its a very minor cost compared to returns I'm getting on my money.

I believe it would be rude of me to push EBB for additional hints regarding how the "patterns" work, so I won't.

On the other hand, I'm an engineer/mathematician by training and understand 'charmed855' compulsion to want to know how EBBs system works. I "believe" his system is based on Nueral Net algorithms used for pattern recognition. But that doesn't really mean much, without knowing what those algorithms are and what the inputs are.. ONLY the creator will probably ever know that. (and maybe his wife?)

Of course, I could be WAAYYY off base!

Bottom line, I am absolutely AMAZED how well his system works.

EBB, THANKS, and I hope you stay with TSPTALK for a long time.


PS. "Friends don't let friends buy-and-hold"

 

[Mr recognizer]

ebb trailing total stk market index and the L2040 tsp fund and Rev shark really way behind on both...be very interesting to see results year to year since this tracker started.....time will only tell..

 

[Mr recognizer]

correction...only trailing total stk market index and ahead of l2040 by .15%...will the index win out or will the ebber?

 

[Fivetears]

... His wife -- and perhaps this gentleman:
http://research.microsoft.com/~cmbishop/index.htm
and his book.
http://research.microsoft.com/~cmbishop/nnpr.htm

I "believe" his system is based on Nueral Net algorithms used for pattern recognition. But that doesn't really mean much, without knowing what those algorithms are and what the inputs are.. ONLY the creator will probably ever know that. (and maybe his wife?)

 

[tsptalk]

ebb trailing total stk market index and the L2040 tsp fund and Rev shark really way behind on both...be very interesting to see results year to year since this tracker started.....time will only tell..

Welcome to the board Mr R. Thanks for joining us. You've only been around a handful of days and haven't had the chance to watch ebb for the last 17 months like many of us. When the system is hot, it is a remarkable thing to watch. Sit back and enjoy it for a while. Don't get too excited about ebb being behind the L2040 by 0.38% this month. I'm actually surprised it's only that much as he has been off this month. His 28.5% 2007 return has nearly tripled that fund for the year.

Good luck!

 

[ordowj56]

I have to agree, since I strarted using Ebb, my returns are tremendous. Give it time, but always use common sense.

 

[kitepig]

Thanks FIVETEARS

I'll have to start reading (& studying) this some more.. as soon as I finish Greenspans book (which while not technical is a fascinating look at our current international economy).

 

[SkyPilot]

correction...only trailing total stk market index and ahead of l2040 by .15%...will the index win out or will the ebber?

I beleive the Ebbtracker has done quite well since it has been implemented... Which one will win? Depends on the time you want to track. So far Ebbtracker has beaten all comers since inception.