DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[ILoveTDs]

I'm not even considering moving out of the S Fund until the 20 day SMA kisses the 80 day SMA. They haven't kissed all year long. I started this year in the S Fund, and got out because my gut said it couldn't last, I'm going with the technical's now, what ever they are to you.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi I love TDs.. I also got out at start of year due to gut feelings and definitely regret it.. so many greenbacks lost forever!! :blink:

I am using lots of technicals now but want to apply more candlestick patterns and support/ resistance lines... not there yet. Also want to apply more advanced Bollinger Bands. My goal is to get a technical system that provides a good basis for entering and exiting to ride the major highs and lows of market and avoid massive drops

Here is a chart that I look at every few weeks or so. Keeps me grounded. I look at that massive drop in 2008 and the next large one in 2011. Particularly paying attention to patterns going on just before the big drop and indicators that provided a clue to possible market drops. I really like the relative strength indicator. Notice how it was negative just before the 2008 drop while te MACD was not as telling..just hoping to make a few bucks while avoiding the massive drop. Getting closer to retirement so while I know the best fund is the S fund it is the riskiest only if you get hit with those major drops too close to retirement.

DWCFP - S Fund - 2003 to 2013 - EMA 10, 20 , 50 day with BB, RSI, MACD, And Slow Stochastic

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=XX%3ADWCPF&time=20&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F11%2F2013&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=10%2C20%2C50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=2&lf3=32&type=4&style=370&size=4&x=65&y=11&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11



You mentioned 80 day moving average so did the following with that info:
DWCFP - S Fund - 2003 to 2013 - EMA 15, 50, 80 day with BB, RSI, MACD, And Slow Stochastic

Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XXWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XXWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

 

[Birchtree]

Traders use the slope of the 50-day moving average to monitor the markets intermediate term trend.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Traders use the slope of the 50-day moving average to monitor the markets intermediate term trend.

Thanks BT.. Great info! That is good to know. The slope. i checked and the slope was dropping in 2008 just before the massive hit started...so the slope was moving downward but I think in2011 it was not... Well at least not until the bottom dropped out. So maybe that one is the one to study more...

 

[rcknfrewld]

...a month ago or so, Mr.JohnRoss masterfully presented a system based on the S&P weekly using the 10 and 50 day EMA...four trades in all since 1997 based on the 10 crossing over/under the 50 within a certain stoch level...this appears to be right up your alley and if you could find it in your heart...I would love to see the current chart and where we stand now...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

...a month ago or so, Mr.JohnRoss masterfully presented a system based on the S&P weekly using the 10 and 50 day EMA...four trades in all since 1997 based on the 10 crossing over/under the 50 within a certain stoch level...this appears to be right up your alley and if you could find it in your heart...I would love to see the current chart and where we stand now...

Sounds like I have some very good marching orders ... I will try to track this down.. That would be a very interesting chart and info. Not sure how long it will take to track this as I have a very sick mom I am caring for right now but will try to ck it out his weekend!

 

[nnuut]

Sounds like I have some very good marching orders ... I will try to track this down.. That would be a very interesting chart and info. Not sure how long it will take to track this as I have a very sick mom I am caring for right now but will try to ck it out his weekend!

I hope your Mom feels better soon.

 

[Birchtree]

Can Emerging Markets Give Bulls New Life? | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

check the 50 day moving average slope

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I hope your Mom feels better soon.

Thank you for well wishes. She is starting to feel better...but more rehab needed.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Can Emerging Markets Give Bulls New Life? | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com

check the 50 day moving average slope

Yes sir ! It looks good. But I kind of want to pull out of market tomorrow due to upcoming Fed meeting next week, but prices are now hovering at the upper Bollinger band and DWCPF bands look like they want to expand, and MACD still positive ...so would hate to pull out before it goes up more.

Ugghhh...decisions...decisions.could it be that even though this is historically a bad month it could turn out to be the opposite this year??? Will decide tomorrow morning. Have two IFTs so could pull out to lock in gains right now but risk losing out if it goes up.

Overall, the market and trend points up...but I want to play the small up and downs!!! Starting to get a little greedy...The last few days have confidence up so maybe doing the opposite of gut would be good! Kinda like when George from Seinfeld and doing the opposite of what he was thinking!! :laugh: Okay maybe I will stay in... Have feeling I'll go back and forth over and over until tomorrow.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Yes sir ! It looks good. But I kind of want to pull out of market tomorrow due to upcoming Fed meeting next week, but prices are now hovering at the upper Bollinger band and DWCPF bands look like they want to expand, and MACD still positive ...so would hate to pull out before it goes up more.

Ugghhh...decisions...decisions.could it be that even though this is historically a bad month it could turn out to be the opposite this year??? Will decide tomorrow morning. Have two IFTs so could pull out to lock in gains right now but risk losing out if it goes up.

Overall, the market and trend points up...but I want to play the small up and downs!!! Starting to get a little greedy...The last few days have confidence up so maybe doing the opposite of gut would be good! Kinda like when George from Seinfeld and doing the opposite of what he was thinking!! :laugh: Okay maybe I will stay in... Have feeling I'll go back and forth over and over until tomorrow.

I am trying to make the same decision. Stay in or risk FOMC spoiling the party.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yep..stayed in.. Saw it going up and decided to stay in.....Now comes Monday.. Might be an exodus. Will see.

I was looking at Mr John Ross's post from around August 11 that Rcknfrwld mentioned. I just made a comment on it so you can see it right now on his Account talk or go to His original post and chart dated August 11 2013 on page 20... shows SPX.

Very nice method that only required 4 transactions since 1997.

Method is to enter market when 10 day EMA crosses over and above the 50 day EMA and stay until the 10 day EMA crosses back down. Analysis done on a weekly chart...not a daily.

Reportedly only happens a handful of times a year and so its easy. Straight forward clear buy sell strategy that should provide a better return compared to buy and hold until you retire.....you are to use RSD at 10 to not get out prematurely or lessen that chance. Hope I summarized that correctly. Anyhow... looks like Mr Ross had applied it to SPX and he did another on AGG/ bonds around August 15. If you like go back and look at both of his related posts.

I'll be posting a chart on SFund ...DWCPF using this method maybe later tonight or tomorrow and try out a few more parameters to try to increase playtime and gain. If any of those turn out I will post them but will see.

Will use parameters like a 12 or 13 day over 20 or 25 or 35 or 40 just to increase playtime and gains. I'm still looking to post a few charts on that for rcknfrewld.

But beauty of that 10/ 50 day EMA strategy is that it is low maintenance while avoiding major down turns... Really wish I had used that strategy years back... But alas I was too busy not paying attention...

 

[rcknfrewld]

Sept. 19 is a full moon...Oct. 4 is a new moon...unorthodox methods have always intrigued me...which is why I am abiding by the Costanza Theorem...the jist is that markets peak during a new moon and bottom during a full moon...so in theory you want to buy around a full moon and sell around a new moon...this method is useful monitoring short term trends and works well with our 2IFT per month...TSPintel subscribes to this controversial method...if you've got time to kill it might be worth looking into
http://www.theidiotandthemoon.com/moontrading.html

 

[uscfanhawaii]

...Method is to enter market when 10 day EMA crosses over and above the 50 day EMA and stay until the 10 day EMA crosses back down. Analysis done on a weekly chart...not a daily.

(my added emphasis)

Sorry for jumping in, don't want to step on John's or anyone's toes.........but I also liked Mr.JohnRoss' alternative to 'buy and hold' without making lots of moves.

Just wanted to point out that John was talking about 10 week EMA crossing over the 50 week EMA, hence why it was on a weekly chart. the weekly chart looks like it smoothes over some of the daily volatility, because when I looked at the 'equivalent' 50 day vs 250 day, there were more crosses, and it did not predict changes in the market nearly as well.

Take a look at StockCharts.com. They let you put in whatever you like and they come back with a chart that covers your requested timeframe.

 

[rcknfrewld]

Ouch, my toes are there...uscfanhawaii is spot on...(btw, abandoned the strategy of which we do not speak of before I even started it...too much work) it is the weekly chart so it uses the weekly moving averages...yeah stockcharts.com is sweet

 

[uscfanhawaii]

...btw, abandoned the strategy of which we do not speak of before I even started it...too much work...

I warned you! I have tried it several times, but it is a lot of work for such a small change. It is also very difficult to see if you really did make anything or not. That's why I normally just treat it as a way to stay in the game when all out of IFTs for the month!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

(my added emphasis)

Sorry for jumping in, don't want to step on John's or anyone's toes.........but I also liked Mr.JohnRoss' alternative to 'buy and hold' without making lots of moves.

Just wanted to point out that John was talking about 10 week EMA crossing over the 50 week EMA, hence why it was on a weekly chart. the weekly chart looks like it smoothes over some of the daily volatility, because when I looked at the 'equivalent' 50 day vs 250 day, there were more crosses, and it did not predict changes in the market nearly as well.

Take a look at StockCharts.com. They let you put in whatever you like and they come back with a chart that covers your requested timeframe.

Thanks for correction... Yes it is weekly..not daily. I have heard several people talk about weekly analysis being best to determine trend directions...just not as easy to see it on a daily basis. I've been using bigcharts.marketwatch.com because I can use it from my iPad... I just can't bring myself to sit at computer in evenings...:worried:... But stockcharts.com does provide more capabilities. Gotta use it to do more advanced BB analyses.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Sept. 19 is a full moon...Oct. 4 is a new moon...unorthodox methods have always intrigued me...which is why I am abiding by the Costanza Theorem...the jist is that markets peak during a new moon and bottom during a full moon...so in theory you want to buy around a full moon and sell around a new moon...this method is useful monitoring short term trends and works well with our 2IFT per month...TSPintel subscribes to this controversial method...if you've got time to kill it might be worth looking into
http://www..com/moontrading.html

Darn it Rcknfrwld!! You kneeewwwwww I would go read it. I'm already plotting the moon phases as I write..LOL.
So many man strategies and Theorem's ....so little time!! I favor them all!!!

 

[PessOptimist]

Sept. 19 is a full moon...Oct. 4 is a new moon...unorthodox methods have always intrigued me...which is why I am abiding by the Costanza Theorem...the jist is that markets peak during a new moon and bottom during a full moon...so in theory you want to buy around a full moon and sell around a new moon...this method is useful monitoring short term trends and works well with our 2IFT per month...TSPintel subscribes to this controversial method...if you've got time to kill it might be worth looking into
Stock market profits with Moon phases

Confusing and contradicting answers from TSPintel in the past. So wax on, wane off? Buy at full moon and sell at new? Maybe that is actually wane on, wax off?

Think about it, what is the true statement?

PO

 

[rcknfrewld]

Confusing and contradicting answers from TSPintel in the past. So wax on, wane off? Buy at full moon and sell at new? Maybe that is actually wane on, wax off?

Think about it, what is the true statement?

PO

PO confused are you my son...bedtime past post you not...moon full wax on equities, moon new wane off equities...fence need paint more...anticipate where fly will be, not where fly is...focus must you...mantra practiced, preach no...truth find you, over think hinder my young grasshopper...wax on wane off...road forked take you, you no take forked road...