DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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DreamboatAnnie said:
Yep..stayed in.. Saw it going up and decided to stay in.....Now comes Monday.. Might be an exodus. Will see.

I was looking at Mr John Ross's post from around August 11 that Rcknfrwld mentioned. I just made a comment on it so you can see it right now on his Account talk or go to His original post and chart dated August 11 2013 on page 20... shows SPX.

Very nice method that only required 4 transactions since 1997.

Method is to enter market when 10 day EMA crosses over and above the 50 day EMA and stay until the 10 day EMA crosses back down. Analysis done on a weekly chart...not a daily.

Reportedly only happens a handful of times a year and so its easy. Straight forward clear buy sell strategy that should provide a better return compared to buy and hold until you retire.....you are to use RSD at 10 to not get out prematurely or lessen that chance. Hope I summarized that correctly. Anyhow... looks like Mr Ross had applied it to SPX and he did another on AGG/ bonds around August 15. If you like go back and look at both of his related posts.

I'll be posting a chart on SFund ...DWCPF using this method maybe later tonight or tomorrow and try out a few more parameters to try to increase playtime and gain. If any of those turn out I will post them but will see.

Will use parameters like a 12 or 13 day over 20 or 25 or 35 or 40 just to increase playtime and gains. I'm still looking to post a few charts on that for rcknfrewld.

But beauty of that 10/ 50 day EMA strategy is that it is low maintenance while avoiding major down turns... Really wish I had used that strategy years back... But alas I was too busy not paying attention...:sick:
Click to expand...
Can you provide a sample chart?
 
jkenjohnson said:
Can you provide a sample chart?
Click to expand...


Here is S fund - DWCPF chart using DAILY for past few months... Daily EMA at 7, 13, 25.. With Bollinger Bands plus indicators for MACD , RSI and Slow Stochastic.

Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

I really prefer the MACD and SLow Stochastic for better entry exit points. Compare them to the 7 day to 25 day cross overs. Take a look at Mr Ross' charts they are really great. For anyone not wanting to do tons of analyses, the 10 / 50 EMA weekly cross over is a dream! I tend to now like and have more time for close daily monitoring and want more action .. Which has potential for more earnings but more risk to loss if timing is off in volatile market...and I' m still learning so I am willing to accept that...but at some point if i am not able to out perform the buy and hold or that 10 / 50 method, I will likely just use that method as it appears to get you out before major downturns occur....plus could spend my time elsewhere... Right now this is fun.:cheesy:
 
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DreamboatAnnie said:
Here is S fund - DWCPF chart using DAILY for past few months... Daily EMA at 7, 13, 25.. With Bollinger Bands plus indicators for MACD , RSI and Slow Stochastic.

Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com


I really prefer the MACD and SLow Stochastic for better entry exit points. Compare them to the 7 day to 25 day cross overs. Take a look at Mr Ross' charts they are really great. For anyone not wanting to do tons of analyses, the 10 / 50 EMA weekly cross over is a dream! I tend to now like and have more time for close daily monitoring and want more action .. Which has potential for more earnings but more risk to loss if timing is off in volatile market...and I' m still learning so I am willing to accept that...but at some point if i am not able to out perform the buy and hold or that 10 / 50 method, I will likely just use that method as it appears to get you out before major downturns occur....plus could spend my time elsewhere... Right now this is fun.:cheesy:
Click to expand...

Nice charts. How much time to generate, if you don't mind me asking.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Nice charts. How much time to generate, if you don't mind me asking.
Click to expand...


Iwas reading about the 10/50 method and several articles indicate that it works well during strong trends but not so well when a trend is weak (whipsaws occur).
 
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DreamboatAnnie said:
Here is S fund - DWCPF chart using DAILY for past few months... Daily EMA at 7, 13, 25.. With Bollinger Bands plus indicators for MACD , RSI and Slow Stochastic.

Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

I really prefer the MACD and SLow Stochastic for better entry exit points. Compare them to the 7 day to 25 day cross overs. Take a look at Mr Ross' charts they are really great. For anyone not wanting to do tons of analyses, the 10 / 50 EMA weekly cross over is a dream! I tend to now like and have more time for close daily monitoring and want more action .. Which has potential for more earnings but more risk to loss if timing is off in volatile market...and I' m still learning so I am willing to accept that...but at some point if i am not able to out perform the buy and hold or that 10 / 50 method, I will likely just use that method as it appears to get you out before major downturns occur....plus could spend my time elsewhere... Right now this is fun.:cheesy:
Click to expand...


If I plotted correctly, it looks like to 10 day EMA crossed the 50 day EMA recently. Am I correct?
 
jkenjohnson said:
Iwas reading about the 10/50 method and several articles indicate that it works well during strong trends but not so well when a trend is weak (whipsaws occur).
Click to expand...

hi Jken,
I believe whipsaws were to be avoided by using RSI at 10 before exiting. However I do not believe there were a lot for SPX but there was for AGG.

As far as charting, it just takes a minute. .... What eats time is all the humming and hawing over those charts ..;) While sipping tea!! If you go to one of the links, I believe you can start changing the parameters and just have it redraw the charts a bazillion different ways.... I also believe these links stay updated, So no need to recreate them...but I do that all the time because I do not save them. :D
 
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=XX%3ADWCPF&time=9&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F11%2F2013&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=10%2C+20%2C+50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=2&lf3=32&type=64&style=370&size=4&x=72&y=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
jkenjohnson said:
If I plotted correctly, it looks like to 10 day EMA crossed the 50 day EMA recently. Am I correct?
Click to expand...
. Well if you used my last link..it was based on a 7, 13, 25 day cross over...s... It crossed around sept 9... But that is not the 10/50


I did one for you using weekly. ..Look at link above...if you go there.. right at top of table it tells you the basis of EMA days. Then go to left of table under moving averages.. you can change the EMA in very small white bubble area you can barely see the Time/day settings..You must make that field big on your screen and delete what is there to add in your own settings...like on 3 EMA input. 10, 20, 50 and hit redraw and new table will show that at op so you know line representations.. That is the only hard part of big charts...hard to input that field.

But if using 10, 50 that last happened back in July 2012
 
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DreamboatAnnie said:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=XX%3ADWCPF&time=9&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F11%2F2013&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=10%2C+20%2C+50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=2&lf3=32&type=64&style=370&size=4&x=72&y=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
. Well if you used my last link..it was based on a 7, 13, 25 day cross over...s... It crossed around sept 9... But that is not the 10/50


I did one for you using weekly. ..Look at link above...if you go there.. right at top of table it tells you the basis of EMA days. Then go to left of table under moving averages.. you can change the EMA in very small white bubble area you can barely see the Time/day settings..You must make that field big on your screen and delete what is there to add in your own settings...like on 3 EMA input. 10, 20, 50 and hit redraw and new table will show that at op so you know line representations.. That is the only hard part of big charts...hard to input that field.

But if using 10, 50 that last happened back in July 2012
Click to expand...

I must be doing something wrong. This chart does not sow th 10 day EMA crossing the 50 day EMA for this time period. When I drew it, it crossed over around Sep 6 or so.
 
rcknfrewld said:
it's the 10WEEEK EMA. vs. the 50WEEK EMA
Click to expand...

Rcknfrewld ---Yes... that is correct. I just love your icon/avatar... what a cutie!!! :)

Jken... look at the top of the chart...it gives the days and then look to the left and it tells you if it is weekly or daily. See post #85--- that is a daily at 7, 13,25 EMA dailies...and that shows a 7 EMA daily crossover on 25 EMA daily in September 2013. However, look at post #89---that shows the 10 week/ 50 week cross over for two years and shows the last cross over happened in July 2012.

BTW--- I just leaped off the ship back to G fund. I am hoping we end the day high. I believe it could go higher this week but I am tired of the Fed's surprises. If it drops I'll get back in and if not I lock in with a gain for hte next month and will sit on sidelines. All the BBs indicate prices going upward but I am going on gut feeling at this point... and yes I will probably be wrong, but again. I want to sleep well for a month. ! Then again..... I am still thinking about it.... have less than 45 minutes to change my mind and cancel it... ugg...
 
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your welcome...it's weekly because the daily fluctuations cause there to be too many short term crossovers...the weekly tunes out the daily background fuzzy noise
 
jkenjohnson said:
Do you use this as your system to trade?
Click to expand...

Hi Jken. I believe you were asking Rcknfrewld that question but wanted to just put in my 2 cents...

Please do not take this as investment advice... Just sharing what I do.
I use strategy described at post 32 and 45. It is evolving..those posts describe primary indicators I am using. Use charts at post 47. Every now and then look at charts at post 57 for longer term prospective.

i also have been mindful of the dates in that TSP Millionaires spreadsheet that I prepared based on mysterzerg. I also am now going to watch that 10/50 week EMA cross over for trend change and especially when it crosses downward. But also keeping an ear to what is going on in the world and listening for what can greatly impact market short-term and mid-term because I am trying to make the most of short to mid-term trading as opposed to going long. So it is not a buy and old or cost averaging type method.

More recently update on strategy includes looking at sentiment, plus RSI although MACD and Stochastic take precedence as well as Bollinger bands. Enter at 20 exit at 90 on Stochastics but when MACD looking to go or has gone positive for entry and definitely out when it crosses to negative. Then there is a little gut involved but trying to keep that out of the mix. Today I went to safety of G because even though all indicators show prices ready to explode upward via charts, the Fed speaks tomorrow and it will affect market..not sure which way but I wanted to lock n my gains.

Last time in June it dropped like a rock and many were stung getting out while market down. I am out because I expect this next 30 days or to be rocky, it is historically a bad period, the mstrzerg spreadsheet indicated it gets out of market tomorrow I believe (seasonality) and Bernanke may taper QE and I think the market has still not fully accounted for that. So it can go either way and I will just live with it. I was only 40 in the market anyway and plan to keep it that way because only a few years from retirement and I will not risk it all....but if i get more confident with my ability to accurately time market i might eventually go to 70 % ..just depends.

When I was younger I put 70 to 90% in market for long term and just let it ride. I would encourage anyone young to consider equities because that is where the money is at!! No doubt about that...Long term unless you want to try to beat the odds with analyses and timing entry exits... G fund gives you nothing and F fund has not been much better which you can conclude by looking at it long term ...equities outperform by far in the long term! However, in hindsight I would use that 10/50 EMA cross over strategy to see major market trends downward to get out and in.

I started dabbling in developing my strategies in May and I am only giving myself one year to get a good return on that40 % and if I can't deliver I'm going back to a buy and hold with limited10/50 intervention and will do the dollar cost averaging by buying into equities every pay period.

Good luck to you!:rolleyes:
 
jkenjohnson said:
Do you use this as your system to trade?
Click to expand...
I put my iPad next to the water and food bowls twice a month...Pearl is the brains of the operation...
...that 10week vs. 50week can't be argued with but it takes patience and discipline to only make 4 moves in 15 years...
...buy during full moon sell near new moon...no shoot...I'm too scared to backtest...I love this way of outsmarting the market
...I sent DBA on that wild goose chase, we will see what she brings back
 
rcknfrewld said:
I put my iPad next to the water and food bowls twice a month...Pearl is the brains of the operation...
...that 10week vs. 50week can't be argued with but it takes patience and discipline to only make 4 moves in 15 years...
...buy during full moon sell near new moon...no shoot...I'm too scared to backtest...I love this way of outsmarting the market
...I sent DBA on that wild goose chase, we will see what she brings back
Click to expand...
shush...Rckenfrewld.. You clever sod! Im not going to analyze returns based on moon phases for you...though I am curious! :laugh:
 
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