DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Thanks Birch! It hurt to not put that in gain on September 18 in my pocket! But I still gained during my period of investment so I don't feel bad. Just now updating that MSTRZERG strategy spreadsheet. Dang it, if I had stayed in I would have gained quite a bit. Posting it in a few minutes. I hope Bucket got a piece of that.
 
Here is an updated spreadsheet for Mstrzerg strategy (as of 9-18-2013), which was previously mentioned in the TSP Millionaires thread (post 167). I think Bucket was testing it...here are the gains for the last transaction period.

Period of Investment - per strategy was to be in S fund.
Returns for this period, which called for exiting September 18
[TABLE="width: 455"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl64, width: 49, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2013
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 85, bgcolor: transparent"]Aug 19
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, width: 69, bgcolor: transparent"]Sep 18
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, width: 45, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 69, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]G 0.19%
[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 76, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]F
1.31%

[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]C
5.01%

[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, width: 68, bgcolor: yellow, align: right"]S
6.46%

[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, width: 78, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]I
5.47%

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

What is more interesting is the returns for 4 investment periods over 9 years....see table 2 at bottom of spreadsheet.
This is not investment advise... just testing and tracking results of this strategy.
 

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I know this will sound silly but I think I got the right Number. . and strategy to keep myself in this game. Just need to figure when to re-enter the scene. Thinking more on it tonight, and will do some analysis.. Definitely a good chance to re-enter tomorrow. Noticing S fund has a cross candle stick so think that means a big move possible tomorrow, with MACD positive while C fund shows Stochastics way low..but MACD looking to cross negative direction...humm??
 
Still waiting for better/ lower price for market entry. Watching market action again tomorrow morning. Really did not want to enter on last day of month as it just seems like price goes up on last day month. Entry for C fund might be good now because Stochastics are way low but MACD is just kissing the line to go into negative territory...but it may bounce back up So still seems tomorrow might be good entry before next weeks political games as long as price action in morn is not way up. If Gov shuts down market might drop further (temporarily) next week which would provide a better price entry point. Both C and S funds look like they are ready to go up..bollingers still opening, price bouncing off of the upper band.... I may enter with 30-40% tomorrow and then enter with more next week if/when it drops lower. I don't expect for it to stay low for more than a week...will see!! Good luck to all!! :)... Please do not take this as investment advice...just me talking out loud about what I am considering for self.
 
Just my humble opinion, but I consider this a purely news-driven market until the folks in DC come to some agreement, and that agreement needs to include an increase in the debt ceiling. Once that occurs technicals will be back in play.

I think that tomorrow (Friday) we have a sell off, especially in the last hour, because many folks won't want to be long over the weekend. I don't think there will be a resolution during market hours Monday, but who knows after that. Typically we see some last hour agreement and if that was going to happen the buy-in day would be Monday prior to the deadline.

Many of us don't have a Sept IFT left and a last minute agreement would lead to a big up day tues OCT 1, which would be watched by us from the sideline. No last minute agreement would mean a pretty big down day on tues, and I guess I'd be watching it from home :-)

So in my opinion the best buy-in day depends on when you think DC will come to an agreement.
 
So in my opinion the best buy-in day depends on when you think DC will come to an agreement.

your analysis is convincing, i had almost committed in my head to making a balls out all in trade on monday, i have a lot of ground to cover and little to lose. then i read your last sentence and by my calculations that puts the buy in date at, umm, exactly never. or at least not until next friday. which
seems like forever. i'm so confused.
 
Haha. You may be right. Just because they usually come to an agreement by the deadline doesn't mean they will this time. I can't jump in before Tuesday and I may jump in that day even without a resolution because once they do the markets will quickly regain anything they lose between now and then.

If the resolution doesn't include increasing the debt ceiling then strap in for the roller coaster ride.
 
Just my humble opinion, but I consider this a purely news-driven market until the folks in DC come to some agreement, and that agreement needs to include an increase in the debt ceiling. Once that occurs technicals will be back in play.

I think that tomorrow (Friday) we have a sell off, especially in the last hour, because many folks won't want to be long over the weekend. I don't think there will be a resolution during market hours Monday, but who knows after that. Typically we see some last hour agreement and if that was going to happen the buy-in day would be Monday prior to the deadline.

Many of us don't have a Sept IFT left and a last minute agreement would lead to a big up day tues OCT 1, which would be watched by us from the sideline. No last minute agreement would mean a pretty big down day on tues, and I guess I'd be watching it from home :-)

So in my opinion the best buy-in day depends on when you think DC will come to an agreement.

I really do not think Congress will let the govt shut down. It would cause to much chaos. Too many people getting stamps and SS, etc. They could come to an agreement over the weekend which would make today a better buy in day than Monday or Tuesday. Decisions, decisions?
 
No big tumble at the close. My guess is still for a monday night agreement. It will be interesting.
 
No big tumble at the close. My guess is still for a monday night agreement. It will be interesting.

A late agreement would be great! Really do not want to see a shutdown.

Could not jump into market today...just seemed like market going up. Will see if fear sets in Monday....and again may just jump in regardless...yes..decisions..decisions!:rolleyes:
 
A late agreement would be great! Really do not want to see a shutdown.

Could not jump into market today...just seemed like market going up. Will see if fear sets in Monday....and again may just jump in regardless...yes..decisions..decisions!:rolleyes:
I may be eating crow on Tuesday as I said there will be no shutdown. Now I'm not to sure.
 
I may be eating crow on Tuesday as I said there will be no shutdown. Now I'm not to sure.
I think it's a 50 / 50 chance. Doesn't this all hinge on Obamacare defunding?? I think it would be a huge mistake to keep it going another year if they are going to allow so many waivers and exempt Congress so that just us little folks are stuck with it. it's no where near ready for implementation. This is a crock! People need to complain to reps. Really wish Congress would be more responsible and handle these things when they should. If they had spent the time on it like they should have before passing it to work on major kinks, if they had read the damn thing, and if they been honest about its actual impact, we would not be going through this chaos because it never would have passed. Memory might be a bit foggy but I recall they passed it in an "unusual" way around Christmas 2009.I need to go back and read on that again...they shoved it through. Was it that most Congressmen were not there?? Can't remember...there was something odd about that.
 
The liberals are all about using your hard earned tax dollars to provide subsidies - it's the subsidies that will bring them the votes the same way food stamps did.
 
The liberals are all about using your hard earned tax dollars to provide subsidies - it's the subsidies that will bring them the votes the same way food stamps did.
Usually That's very true!! But I think in the end this will come back to bit em.... Folks must pay something for it up front .. And get a tax credit?? Those folks don't have the cash to float the gov for a year waiting for a credit.... One of those main media stations was reporting it would only cost about $83 per month, AFTER the credit....that was well worded..wouldn't want to let folks know the actual out of pocket that will be hitting them each month.
 
I just sent in IFT ..going into market 50% COB today.
If it tanks, I will hold and buy 50% more as I believe the bulls will gain speed as we get past October.
If it goes up Tomorrow, I win immediately and I will sell and pocket gains and wait for the mid month debt increase debate to buy back in. Or so that is the plan now....:nuts:
Hope Murphy doesn't pitch me a fast one!!
 
I just sent in IFT ..going into market 50% COB today.
If it tanks, I will hold and buy 50% more as I believe the bulls will gain speed as we get past October.
If it goes up Tomorrow, I win immediately and I will sell and pocket gains and wait for the mid month debt increase debate to buy back in. Or so that is the plan now....:nuts:


Hope Murphy doesn't pitch me a fast one!!

Did you follow through? Pretty gutsy call with all of the govt crap going on.
 
Did you follow through? Pretty gutsy call with all of the govt crap going on.
Hi JKJ... Yes I did. Thanks! I don't think it will be a losing proposition no matter what happens. If it drops I think it will be temporary and I'll just lose out on the opportunity difference between today's close and lower prices for that 50% of my bean pile. I will not sell until it is way in the black.

On the other 50 %...well it is on sidelines making me nothing! but looking for a lower entry if it presents itself. I have been extremely conservative as I get my feet wet on learning how to manage these funds actively this year..but it is time to step up the game!! Missing out on this bull market...really wish I had just let it ride all year. Oh we'll....just hoping that my more consistent involvement will pay off in terms of getting out before massive permanent drop like what has happened in past. I don't doubt this market could drop like a rock, but truly believe it will be very temporary...Like just for this week or until CR is resolved...so not really worried. Well wishes to all!! :)
 
Wow!! I must say I am surprised the market went up even with shutdown. I've seen posts indicating shutdowns cause temporary drops. So figured it would go down with shutdown or up if it was resolved, but here it is again...something unexpected. Market went in its own direction! Yes only the market knows what it is doing...dang it.

So I think it will go up another day or so and then as congress continues to dig in, it could start a big drop. Was hoping the shutdown would be resolved quickly to get a good increase after resolution, then have time to get out on that high, and then go back in after the debt ceiling gets negotiated and prices drop due to political fighting and then ride it out for rest of year. So if market keeps going up and Congress looks like it will not deal, may get out later this week...then move in with price drops from debt limit infighting.

i know I said I was going to just rely on technical indicators and ignore the political effects on market, but I just can't. I don't care what causes it to go up and down, I just want to take advantage of it. Seems wrong to ignore those opportunities. I guess if it bites me, I'll learn a lesson but right now I am looking at indicators and political climate.
 
i know I said I was going to just rely on technical indicators and ignore the political effects on market, but I just can't. I don't care what causes it to go up and down, I just want to take advantage of it. Seems wrong to ignore those opportunities. I guess if it bites me, I'll learn a lesson but right now I am looking at indicators and political climate.
News events causing markets to move up or down usually reverse themselves fairly quickly! JMHO I've tried to take advantage many times and have been burned for my trouble virtually every time. Having only two IFTs really puts a crimp in your plans even if you guess right! If you guess wrong you're really screwed! Just my 2 cents worth!
 
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