DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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DreamboatAnnie said:
Help! Would someone direct me on how to upload a spreadsheet? Size limits or must they be shared via private email? Trying to post analysis to TSP Millionaires thread.
Click to expand...

To upload a spreadsheet you need to select "go advanced" instead of posting a quick reply. Then look at the icons and select the paperclip (to the right of the :)).

1. Select "add files"
2. Select "select files"
3. At this point you can locate the file on your computer you wish to attach. Select "open".
4. Make sure there is an "X" in the box next to your file.
5. Select "upload file".
 
I did not buy in today because market is continuing to go downward ... Looking for a bottom and entry point.


i have been looking at Slow and fast stochastic oscillator momentum indicators and MACD for entry then at price movement on both bollinger bands and trying to read candles and looking at other comments by tsp talk members dealing with support and resistance and at Tom' s market commentary and charts.


Here are a few charts I pulled up today. All of them for all funds look like good entry points ( i.e. MACD is going negative, and Slow Stochastic is below 20 meeting my criteria for entry) but the only bad thing is that price is moving down along bottom of bollinger bands so I do not want to enter until I see some upward price action and candlesticks bounce away from lower BB a couple times up enough indicating the bottom has hit. The s and c funds show expanding BBs and with prices on lower band that would seem to indicate prices will be exploding downward...so just watching for now. Watching daily.

SFund - DCWPF

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=XX%3ADWCPF&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F11%2F2013&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=10%2C20%2C50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=16&type=4&style=370&size=4&x=56&y=8&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11So

C fund- SPX

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com


I fund - EFA

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com


F fund - AGG

iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
Okay . So I finally entered market yesterday. Hoping it doesn't go down much more... But sticking in there. Really should have entered Wednesday but wanted some upward confirmation although would not be surprised if market drops back down to hit the lower Bollinger band before moving upward. Most are still indicating it is a bull market. If it drops a lot more, I still have another IFT left to buy more. Planning to sell in September depending on prices. :rolleyes:
 
 
Years ago in the late 1970s we had what was known as October massacres where the Dow simply slipped into a bottomless black hole with no end in sight - very scary but an opportunity for guys like me that were using buy stops. It's an exciting time to be an investor and money will be made in bundles.
 
I like that!! Bundles of money! But don't say massacre and bottomless... I'm already spooked as it is. But if it does go that route, I will look at it as an opportunity to go ALL IN when it hits that bottomless pit. Of course will have to close my eyes for a time and scream on occasion!! I can do this... I can do this.. I can do this.... Haha. :laugh:

Hopefully I will still be laughing into next month!
 
Well today I looked at the market outlook thread. Lots of interesting talk! Noticed good article posted by Sstasel about debt ceiling coming up soon and noticed it talked about "extraordinary" accounting used by Treasury since May to avoid the debt ceiling... But no specifics on that. Searched web and found concise interesting article with a link to a letter to John Boehner that explains the "extraordinary" accounting.

Of course part of it deals with not fully investing/ reinvesting ( i.e. not funding) CSRS and G fund. See Article and letter below.
So their logic is to not "invest" our new monies or "reinvest" our monies to avoid creating "booked" debt; thereby not recording/creating debt that hits against the authorized debt ceiling. How lovely is that??? Yep.. Real creative. Sounds criminal!

Article on debt limit

Obama Math? Deficit UP $138B In May, Debt DOWN $90B « Rat's Right!

Letter to John Boehner - explains extraordinary accounting

http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/Documents/Debt%20Limit%205-17-13%20Boehner.pdf

yes I know they have done this before with G fund, but did not know about CSRS.
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Well today I looked at the market outlook thread. Lots of interesting talk! Noticed good article posted by Sstasel about debt ceiling coming up soon and noticed it talked about "extraordinary" accounting used by Treasury since May to avoid the debt ceiling... But no specifics on that. Searched web and found concise interesting article with a link to a letter to John Boehner that explains the "extraordinary" accounting.

Of course part of it deals with not fully investing/ reinvesting ( i.e. not funding) CSRS and G fund. See Article and letter below.
So their logic is to not "invest" our new monies or "reinvest" our monies to avoid creating "booked" debt; thereby not recording/creating debt that hits against the authorized debt ceiling. How lovely is that??? Yep.. Real creative. Sounds criminal!

Article on debt limit

Obama Math? Deficit UP $138B In May, Debt DOWN $90B « Rat's Right!

Letter to John Boehner - explains extraordinary accounting

http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/Documents/Debt%20Limit%205-17-13%20Boehner.pdf

yes I know they have done this before with G fund, but did not know about CSRS.
Click to expand...

none of it is funded annie. not detroit, not chicago, not california, not fers, not csrs, not even social security. not a penny in the 'booked' accounts is really a real penny made out of copper or zinc or plated melamine or whatever crap it is they sell you. it's all paper.

sure it gets deducted from your auto-deposit digital paycheck - on paper. and it gets immediately replaced with a bond (on paper) and spent with a promise to pay it back later (on paper). and when future workers work and it comes time to pay your bill you can be sure they will pay you back - on paper. and the more faith and credit, the more paper. which becomes worth less over time (inflation).

but you can't eat paper. well, you can, but it's way less appetizing than shoes.
 
burrocrat said:
none of it is funded annie. not detroit, not chicago, not california, not fers, not csrs, not even social security. not a penny in the 'booked' accounts is really a real penny made out of copper or zinc or plated melamine or whatever crap it is they sell you. it's all paper.

sure it gets deducted from your auto-deposit digital paycheck - on paper. and it gets immediately replaced with a bond (on paper) and spent with a promise to pay it back later (on paper). and when future workers work and it comes time to pay your bill you can be sure they will pay you back - on paper. and the more faith and credit, the more paper. which becomes worth less over time (inflation).

but you can't eat paper. well, you can, but it's way less appetizing than shoes.
Click to expand...

yes.. Sadly I must agree.. It is all just paper but pisses me off that they screw around with the numbers like that to get around the law. :mad:

At least we can take solace in knowing that they cannot touch the funds we put into the S, C, I, and F funds.. Although You do have me wondering about that as well!!! :worried:
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
yes.. Sadly I must agree.. It is all just paper but pisses me off that they screw around with the numbers like that to get around the law. :mad:

At least we can take solace in knowing that they cannot touch the funds we put into the S, C, I, and F funds.. Although You do have me wondering about that as well!!! :worried:
Click to expand...

when you digitally receive by email the notice that your tsp quarterly statement is available and you old-fashionedly print it out to have and to hold and file it away in the desk drawer knowing and having proof the future is secured by the ever-changing values of your shares in the C-S-I funds, what do you print out that statement on?

yep, on paper. bon appatite.
 
so here's the trick about paper: it's only worth what somebody else will pay you for it, but they're going to pay you for it with other paper. that's called the market. so what is paper worth? well that depends, ask lehman brothers or russian investors in cyprus deposits.

so how to win that game? only one way: be your own central bank. generate free money but realize the value now and pay back the balance later in neccessarily cheaper dollars. but this only works if you are ok with working up until the day you die, that way you only pay the piper once. fortunately he'll settle for whatever you got left. i regularly borrow from my tsp and either buy physical assets that will be of actual value later or enjoyment now. 50% my 'money' in plus 50% gov free paper in minus my 'money' out via loan at ~2% interest, such that the vast majority of my tsp balance is free 'money'. and when i pay off the loan to myself with cheaper dollars provided by the massive paper hangin' u.s. treasury then i do it again. now i'm ok with spending all my money now. and if they ever pay me what free money of theirs they say i am due (on paper), then i'm ok with that. and if they don't i'm ok with that too. same goes for fers and social security. but i won't lose any sleep if they don't. it was free after all in the first place. you can not lose something you never had. especially if it was made of paper.

i do not recommend this strategery to anyone. but if you think you will receive fair value out for everything got promised was put in then you got another think coming. there's too many who didn't put in that expect the same amount for free, and they vote.

when i look in the mirror i see ben bernanke. i use current free assets to gaurantee tomorrow's liquidity which i plan on paying with a future revenue stream generated by someone else's money. and it's all free paper. actually that's not entirely true., when i look in the mirror i see kim bassinger standing over my shoulder in a catwoman suit and i wish she'd shave. but she reminds me of ben bernanke and that's a whole 'nother story.
 
burrocrat said:
so here's the trick about paper: it's only worth what somebody else will pay you for it, but they're going to pay you for it with other paper. that's called the market. so what is paper worth? well that depends, ask lehman brothers or russian investors in cyprus deposits.

so how to win that game? only one way: be your own central bank. generate free money but realize the value now and pay back the balance later in neccessarily cheaper dollars. but this only works if you are ok with working up until the day you die, that way you only pay the piper once. fortunately he'll settle for whatever you got left. i regularly borrow from my tsp and either buy physical assets that will be of actual value later or enjoyment now. 50% my 'money' in plus 50% gov free paper in minus my 'money' out via loan at ~2% interest, such that the vast majority of my tsp balance is free 'money'. and when i pay off the loan to myself with cheaper dollars provided by the massive paper hangin' u.s. treasury then i do it again. now i'm ok with spending all my money now. and if they ever pay me what free money of theirs they say i am due (on paper), then i'm ok with that. and if they don't i'm ok with that too. same goes for fers and social security. but i won't lose any sleep if they don't. it was free after all in the first place. you can not lose something you never had. especially if it was made of paper.

i do not recommend this strategery to anyone. but if you think you will receive fair value out for everything got promised was put in then you got another think coming. there's too many who didn't put in that expect the same amount for free, and they vote.

when i look in the mirror i see ben bernanke. i use current free assets to gaurantee tomorrow's liquidity which i plan on paying with a future revenue stream generated by someone else's money. and it's all free paper. actually that's not entirely true., when i look in the mirror i see kim bassinger standing over my shoulder in a catwoman suit and i wish she'd shave. but she reminds me of ben bernanke and that's a whole 'nother story.
Click to expand...

Burro... Your starting to sound like reckfrwld!! Your rant is really funny. Killing myself laughing about Kim reminding you of Ben.... Hummm?? Okay so yes i get it..spend it all while you can and borrow since you'll be paying it back with cheaper dollars the longer you wait. ... Well. I guess my problem is I am relying on that paper... Instead Maybe I should get some gold, or better yet land with water out in the woods where no one can find me and store up lots of guns, bullets, toilet paper... Dang it I do need some luxuries...made of the ever evil paper, plus a Bible, beans, flour, rice and fishing gear, shovels, knives, pots, ax, canned spam and fruit, etc and a few diamonds and rubies just because.. After all What good is a girl in the woods without some bling!! Yeah.. Maybe I need to go down that path...:rolleyes: . Okay maybe that is too crazy.. I need my mani and pedi on a regular basis... Soooooo much for that idea. Forget everything I just said....had a temporary lapse of sanity :D bye bye!
 
So the last few days have been a bit tough. Seeing the closing prices bouncing along the lower BB ---uggh.. Price came down, bounced up and then hit it again and looks like with today's price action it should end positive with a bounce up. Many are saying it will go down much more. Maybe it will. Hindenburg Omen, bad economic news, and Syria. We are due for a serious correction, but when?????? Some folks talk about it happening this year, next month, and some say next year. Who knows???

One thing is for certain, my overall strategy is to only invest a portion of my money and play it conservative so I can sleep at night. Number two, watch action daily and keep learning as much as possible. Definitely need to learn more about support and resistance, and reading daily candles and analyzing short and mid term trends. This game is only fun because I am not investing more than I can stand to lose. :cheesy: ...but it would be nice to go positive!
 
Great charts Annie. Thanks! I'm still sitting 100% in the S Fund and trying to decide when (or not) to bail.

Susan
 
Your Welcome! Yes... I am also trying to figure out what to do. Overall still in uptrend.... But now studying prior huge drops to look for tell tale signs of impending ginormous drop.. Hope to not be in S when that happens.
 
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