DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Hi Pmaloney! I do like Chris Ciovacco and videos have lots of information that I have taken notes on to create comparison charts for various market sectors. But that Ovaltine will definitely need to be spiked with something strong. Missed out on so many $$$ this Summer, I need a stiff drink to help me make it through... .either that or just use the glass to catch all my tears!! :17:
 
Yes, I know what you mean. I watch Ciovacco every weekend and combined with other experiences I have chastised myself every time I have missed a nice rally when I thought it was prudent to get out for a while but that is definitely not true in this market (at least not yet). I do respect his logic as much as I respect the more conservative views of others and I think a lot of this has to do with having faith in good signs and times but being a watchman for the bad times.

I thank the Lord for all his blessings but a good Whiskey med before bed is good too! :smile:
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Going to the 3 month S Fund chart in my last post, or picture below. What I like about the latest MACD setting (3,39,3) is that the crossover from negative to positive happens a little earlier (8/22) than the default MACD setting (12,26) (crosses ~8/29) followed by PMO (~8/30). But on the backend for possible exit, the 3,39,3 setting looks like it could get you out too early, or at least in this particular case because you can clearly see that MACD default and PMO clearly are in positive territory. So maybe just need to keep looking at all indicators to confirm. Have not performed back testing, but I am going to study it.

But wow... look at that embedded reading in the Full Stochastic... S fund flying high and not seeing any wavering on that Stochastic.


View attachment 42319
Click to expand...

That's the good and bad with the "S" fund. When it's flying high it's one heck of a ride, but be ready for the big drop (were you find yourself a little weightless). Sticky pants always at the ready.
 
Here are 6 Month Daily charts. Just as I did with the 1 Month and 3 Month charts posted yesterday, I have added in a few extra EMAs and MACD setting that I am starting to study.
The EMAs of 13 and 48.5 were added because I saw an article with back testing that showed this was one of the best combinations for long term entry/exits.

6 MONTH DAILY CHARTS

S Fund ($DWCPF)
$DWCPF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

C Fund ($SPX)
$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I Fund (EFA)
EFA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

F Fund (AGG)
AGG - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Hoping you have a Great Evening and Best Wishes on Your Investments!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
I haven't heard of that one before...what's the tell? Looking at some charts I can see a "buy" correlation in the last half of August but what would be the corresponding "Sell"? A wider range for the specific index? If so how wide a range? Right now it is only about an eigth of a point spread on the C....
 
Mcqlives said:
I haven't heard of that one before...what's the tell? Looking at some charts I can see a "buy" correlation in the last half of August but what would be the corresponding "Sell"? A wider range for the specific index? If so how wide a range? Right now it is only about an eigth of a point spread on the C....
Click to expand...

Hi Mcqlives, This EMA crossover is meant to be for long term investing. Looking at a 1-year daily chart, the last time the 13 EM (on C fund/SPX) fell below 48.5 was prior to the election in Nov 2016. Right at that point, it crossed above the 13 day EMA and it has never dropped below it. With that methodology, one would have been invested the entire time up to today. Even in August, when the exit signal was close, the crossover never actually happened. The 13 daily EMA was within a hairs breath of occurring but actually didn't so no sell signal happened. So its still running on a buy going back to Nov 2016.

I wish I had been using that long term methodology for at least part of my investment strategy.

Here are a couple charts...hope you can view them.
View attachment Chart - C fund - August 2017.pdf

View attachment 1-year C fund as of 10-5-2017.pdf

The more volatile S fund fell below back in October 2016 crossed back up in November for a buy, and then dropped in August 2017 for a sell, but recovered in first week or so in September 2017 for short buy opportunity and now its skyrocketing. Definitely embedded at this time.

So when to enter is the big question. I am inclined to just get in for 50% since it is beyond the buy signal and ride it out long term. I think for my other 50% I will try shorter term method. I have not been following my other strategy .. for quite some time. Mainly re-evaluating ... so I should be entering soon. Just trying to get something solid in mind before I proceed so I can have enough confidence to pull the trigger even when fear grips at me. :worried: I think a solid strategy that I truly believe in is the cure for my issues. :nuts:

Best wishes to you and everyone!!!!! :smile:
 
Last edited:
Ahhh...that makes sense! I was running it for a 3 month and saw the SnP crossover in August. I though that was the buy signal you were referring to. Now me see! Thanks o' Master DBA:smile:
 
Thanks mcqlives, your too kind. Wish i could follow through but i just keep thinking the world is going to end!!! Ugghhh...lol. :rolleyes:

Best wishes !!!!!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
Moving into the I Fund 25% plus 10% into F Fund. Seeing MACD crossover on both....

Best wishes to everyone on our investments!!!!!! :smile:
 
Here are charts for I fund and F fund. I see a positive crossover on MACD 3,39,3. Will see how this works out.

EFA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
I fund - 10-11-2017.png

AGG - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
AGG - F Fund - 10-11-2017.png


Still not fully confident on current methodology, as I still need to do quite a bit of back testing and still adjusting my "rules" as I do back tests. Might be able to complete that by the end of the weekend, but not sure.

Will be watching for 13 EMA to cross below 48.5 for an exit on any chart, and MACD 3,39,3 positive cross over for entry. Of course, still using Full Stochastic but to a lesser extent. It just helps with confirmation. I am sure a slight pull back will occur.... but I tend to think it will be more as a result of an unexpected news event than to the economy. Obviously, no tax plan would cause a lot of angst in the market .... and I would very disappointed in Congress! :rolleyes: I hope I do not have to go on the Warpath in 2018!!!! :blink:

Good evening and Best Wishes on Your Investments!!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
I have not yet posted about Tom Petty and his passing away early last week. Such an awesome musician and unique voice...and musical vocal phrasing. I was so very sad to hear of it....I love many of his songs, as I'm sure many of you do too.

My favorite song is Here Comes My Girl. 1979. A great year in my life and the song always brings back great memories and makes me feel young...though even now I feel very young at heart!!! I like the part where he says, " watch her walk....uh". Absolutely perfect and so very sexy! Oh.... Gotta love the feathers and shags! Peace to you brother!

 
Okay..must hear this one too. Sitting here with sister sipping a diet coke with Gentleman Jack and 3 cherries.... Awesome song!! Come on Tom...rock me! :smile:
 
Sara... Your the poet in my heart! Never change!

Wait a minute, baby
Stay with me awhile
Said you'd give me light
But you never told me about the fire......

...
Undoing the laces....

Stevie is such an awesome songwriter!!!
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

P
Negative Adjustment Earnings
Replies
3
Views
257
nasa1974
nasa1974
V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
204
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
January 2025 AutoTracker Winners!
Replies
1
Views
336
rangerray
rangerray
tsptalk
Time to Upgrade the Forum, which means...
Replies
10
Views
1K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
December 2024 AutoTracker Winners!
Replies
2
Views
399
Skooby
S
Back
Top