DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

More charts. These have tons of Exponential Moving Averages. I am looking at the 9 month for longer term perspective, and 2 month charts for closer look at current events. The Full Stochastic crossovers at the 80 and 20 lines seem key for entry/exits as well as PMO and MACD (both momentum indicators). Historically have used MACD but PMO is smoother. So using both as well as the EMAs, slope and obviously price candles (along with looking for whether market is making higher highs and higher lows, or vice versa.

Not sure how long the Permalinks here will work but I am planning to keep subscribing to Stockcharts as they make life so much easier, not having to recreate the charts as much when I used Bigcharts. Auto update daily, Plus I am able to have more than 2 or 3 EMA lines and PMO access. Charts are a bit crowded...lots of info, but I really like to look everything at one time. I am able to zoom in by stretching screen with fingers on ipad or Surface Pro tablet mode, especially for the 9 month daily charts. So these charts supplement the 1 year weekly and 6 month daily charts I posted last week.


9 Month Daily Charts

S Fund - $DWCPF
$DWCPF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

C Fund - $SPX
$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I Fund - EFA
EFA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

F Fund - AGG
AGG - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

2 Month Daily Charts

S Fund - $DWCPF
$DWCPF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

C Fund - $SPX
$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I Fund - EFA
EFA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

F Fund - AGG
AGG - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com


Best Wishes to Everyone on Your Investments!!!!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

CHART LINKS -These should be permanent links that update daily. I hope! :smile: Best wishes to you on Your Investments!!!!!!!!!!:smile:
(Note: You can manipulate these to an extent-- Changes to overlays and indicators are limited to 3 each. No intraday options without the subscription--but you can see intraday info on Bigcharts.com)


DAILY

S FUND - DAILY - 6 MONTHS
$DWCPF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

C FUND - DAILY - 6 MONTHS
$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I FUND - DAILY - 6 MONTHS
EFA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

F FUND - DAILY - 6 MONTHS
AGG - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

WEEKLY

S FUND - WEEKLY - 2.5 YRS
$DWCPF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

C FUND - WEEKLY - 2.5 YRS
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p54602226377&a=516248556

I FUND - WEEKLY - 2.5 YRS
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFA&p=W&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p59149484914&a=516248955

F FUND - WEEKLY - 2.5 YRS
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=W&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p57787464995&a=516248957

Bringing these charts forward in thread.

S fund daily has 10EMA below the 50 EMA and 20 is getting close to crossing below so that's not good. MACD/PMO on their signal lines (flat lining). Full Stochastic heading down and now at 37. Price close to lower Bollinger band. Bands are contracting.

C Fund is about same except 10EMA just crossed below 30, while 20EMA is about to cross below 30. Stochastic now down to 26. MACD/PMO BELOW their signal lines. Bollinger contracting and sloped down.

I Fund is not looking good. Staying in for now... it had dropped to nearly 20 on Stochastic and had started heading up when I entered. But now looks like price may start to slide down.... will see. Hmmm... just looked at weekly chart... need to exit this fund. Stochastic dropped below 80 and MACD is about to cross below its signal line. If I exit tomorrow, I lose out on potential reentry this month....ugghhhhh...

F fund... looking very strong.


Even though earnings are coming in, my Strategy involves entry when Stochastic dips below 20 and its not there yet. Obviously, price can move up with good news. Really would like to get in on earnings but so far no entry for me..... I really do not anticipate an entry yet.

Also, I understand Fed will be issuing some news this week. Need to check on it.

Hope you are having a Great Evening and Best Wishes on Your Investments!!!!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[pmaloney]

Great charts and report! Thank you! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

HI! Gosh... market Crazy!! :Eyecrazy:

So DOW is down 87 points right now, or about .41% BUT DWCPF is at about .37% up. I know there are differences between these two indices but I just dislike watching FBN and thinking one thing and then clicking on Stockcharts link to see a totally different picture!

Well at least SPX and reporting on S&P are in sync.

I needed to check on which is a subset of which (Dow versus DWCPF)....so here is some info on that.
Stockow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (DWCPF)

Better explanation:
https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/24cvld/difference_between_tsp_funds/

Hope you are all having a wonderful day!!!!!!! Best Wishes! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

So looked at charts last night and this morning. I am now invested 50%G, 25%I and 25%F, but have decided to move more to equities. S fund looks stronger than C, though neither have touched the 20 EMA on Stochastics... but S fund looks to be moving back up. Possibly folks are hopeful something will happen in Congress next week... not holding my breath but I am guessing it might be worth a try. MACD is still not crossed above its signal line but close so until that happens, I am going to TRY to remember this should be a short play--few days.

New allocation is going to be 70%S - 15%C - 15%I. Will see how this works out....:dunno:

Come on!!! :haha:

I am wishing everyone the best on investments !!!!!!! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Just as FYI - The French vote, first round for President, is this Sunday. So there is some possibility its' outcome could affect markets if one person gets more than 50% and who it is. Earlier, I heard if it were a person of either extreme, far left or far right, it could shake things up. If no majority, the two top persons move to deciding election on May 7th and then winner takes office May 14th. Whewwww.... they don't mess around!! :05:

Here is a short good article on this.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/20/world/europe/france-election.html?_r=0

Hope you are having a Great Evening! Best Wishes!!!!!!!☺

 

[nasa1974]

Just as FYI - The French vote, first round for President, is this Sunday. So there is some possibility its' outcome could affect markets if one person gets more than 50% and who it is. Earlier, I heard if it were a person of either extreme, far left or far right, it could shake things up. If no majority, the two top persons move to deciding election on May 7th and then winner takes office May 14th. Whewwww.... they don't mess around!! :05:

Here is a short good article on this.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/20/world/europe/france-election.html?_r=0

Hope you are having a Great Evening! Best Wishes!!!!!!!☺

That is the big question mark. How will the French election affect the "I" fund? Still 100% "I" and I haven't decided what to do yet. For May I'm pretty sure I will go 50/50 "CS".

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

The thought is that if one of the candidates wins or ties for the runoff, and they favor border controls or moving out of the European Union or favor an alliance with Putin (yes, unbelievably one of them likes that!), this could mark continued deterioration of the European Union's stability. Similar to effects of the Grexit and Brexit events last year.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Well NASA... Not sure the I fund is the best place to be... Then again, the market did recover in a few weeks after Brexit though I think if LePen wins this would be a much bigger deal, i.e. Market drop!!! Will see...I'm in I fund at 15% but may exit to G ....just not certain yet. Lets see how markets react on Monday.


Update: As of a couple hours ago, Macron and Le Pen are projected to be the two that will run off on May 7th per exit polls. Le Pen favors leaving the European Union and curbing immigrations, while Macron embraces the European union and calls for tolerance. He started his career as a socialist, but is now classed as a centrist. Sound familiar??? :scratchchin:

 

[nasa1974]

Not sure how things will play out this week but plan to go 50/50 "CS" by end of the week.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi!! So LePen and Macron will have run off in France, two weeks away. I believe the market is up because Macron is more moderate and in the running.

I MAY exit I fund (15%) today to hopefully pocket gains. Just hoping the conversion will hit today. Not really sure how that will work??????? I've never understood that nor liked the I fund though its been doing very well this year. Hmmm....?

Market thinks Macron will win and betting houses are giving him great odds. However, I am recalling that the Brexit non-exit odds were very high back in June, with betting houses saying No exit was at 80%. Obviously, while the betting houses lost by a very slim margin, their odds were way off! so no telling what happens on that.

French election: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen to fight for presidency - BBC News

So Europe is high right now and EFA is at +2% right now. Hence, I am taking my winnings and say, whewww...the charts look great now with intraday way above the upper Bollinger band.

Best wishes to everyone!!!!!!!

P.S. Still debating if I reduce exposure on S and C funds. Lots of earnings reports this week and all next week as well. I will likely stay in at least 40% as charts look so good (due to todays rise) and Trump unveils tax plan Wednesday, though I doubt anything but debt ceiling gets voted on per all the political news. However, when Trump announced tax plan was coming this past Friday, the market rose when he announced that around 3 pm Eastern or so but ten dropped back again though not as low. Sounds like people still have a wait and see attitude on that. So not sure how much a Wednesday announcement will play out, especially if it does not have enough details or without a firmer intent on if it will happen this year. Then again, there is talk of a possible though unlikely vote on healthcare Saturday??? Hmmm.... we will see...

 

[RazorCat]

Looks like some really mice gains to be had in I today. Take the money and run.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Doses anyone know how the conversion works and whether today's market action in EFA will be included in today's closing price? I thought there was a delay of 1 day????

 

[nasa1974]

Doses anyone know how the conversion works and whether today's market action in EFA will be included in today's closing price? I thought there was a delay of 1 day????

I believe it has to do with the difference between the market closing in Europe vs. the market closing in the U.S.

 

[nasa1974]

I believe it has to do with the difference between the market closing in Europe vs. the market closing in the U.S.

I would have to go back a few years and search for a real good answer. I believe Squalebear had a good explanation on the "I" fund corrections.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Exuberance in France so pocketing some coin. Processed IFT.. now at 40%S and 60%G.
Exited C and I completely.

Best wishes to Everyone on your Investments!!!!!!!!! :smile:

 

[evilanne]

Doses anyone know how the conversion works and whether today's market action in EFA will be included in today's closing price? I thought there was a delay of 1 day????

Looks like the I funds and other stock funds did slightly better than their equivalent benchmarks
C+1.09%, S+1.13%, I+2.55%
S&P500 +1.08%, DWCPF +1.12%, I+2.53%
F Fund & AGG were both -0.15%
The I Fund is impacted by changes in exchange rates but with multiple currencies (in comparison to USD), trying to figure out what the impact will be is beyond my comprehension

 

[rspring]

Exuberance in France so pocketing some coin. Processed IFT.. now at 40%S and 60%G.
Exited C and I completely.

Best wishes to Everyone on your Investments!!!!!!!!! :smile:

I am thinking that any announcement of the tax cuts will be a sell the news event since the markets have gapped up. What are your thoughts? Thanks for your postings.

 

[felinecrl]

I am thinking that any announcement of the tax cuts will be a sell the news event since the markets have gapped up. What are your thoughts? Thanks for your postings.

I think I agree with you. :suspicious:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I am thinking that any announcement of the tax cuts will be a sell the news event since the markets have gapped up. What are your thoughts? Thanks for your postings.

Hi Rspring, I just dont know. I am hoping the market will like it! But no telling what others in GOP (i.e. Paul Ryan) might say to dampen the effect. Last weeke, when It was announced a plan would come out the market did not seem to a react greatly, though it did recover some from intraday lows but still ended red. So i guess its about the details but more so the timeline If market doesnt believe it or even if it thinks pessimistic about it not happening this year, then watch out.

Earnings are coming out each day and look good, but that tax plan is critical.

Agreement on Healthcare repeal and replace is big too since the thinking seems to be it could allow more dollars for the tax cuts, but its still about the details. If the healthcare mandates to pay insurance companies to stay in program by paying them for the major costs/shortfalls they experience (more costs/lossesas Obamacare starts to implode) and if those who are uninsured are hit with big penalties that are coming in, and if those who are insured are to pay those big premium increases, then i think it could drop market. Will just wait and see, but there are a lot of IFs... Uncertainty. I think the mandates to pay insurance companies to cover their losses and continue coverages, is almost a certainty for a year or so, even if it is replaced. Gotta keep coverages for people during a 1-2year transition period. Its too big a program to not do that.

While I would love to stay in longer, i am contemplating lessening exposure further if it looks like a great up day. If it drops tomorrow, I may stay in longer until better news or an up day comes along. With only 40% in S fund right now, I am comfortable...for now. But i would like to stay in longer in hopes of more gains.... ..thing is I really dont want to miss gains next week, but I also do not want to burn my first IFT next week by exiting. Gotta think about that.

Lots of Earnings coming out each day this week into next week....but then France votes May 7th, so thought is to be out by early-mid next week at latest. If more polls come out showing a shift to LePen, then that could drop markets next week. Then again, i dont want to burn an IFT next week to exit in May. This week I can continue divesting and going into G fund bit by bit...unlimited IFTs to G fund once you burn your first 2 IFTs during this month. But looking at charts each day...momentum is up so will still look at charts each day. As for the gap, no telling when that will hit.

Good night and Best wishes to you and everyone on your Investments!!!!!!!! :smile: