DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Well...listening to Debate and looking at charts. Trying to determine if this week might provide an entry point???
Maybe tomorrow will give better indicator. Today, SPX is starting to move down a bit. slow Stochastic is starting to come down. It looks like mid week next week might provide a buy...but will see. SPX looks better set to do well soon as price is above 20 Day EMA, and price is in a 10 day EMA channel along the upper Bollinger Band.

Best wishes to you on your investments!!!!!!! :smile:
 
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Just trying to not forget the big picture. What I like about this view is that you can eaily see that when the 20 week EMA (Blue line) crosse below the 50 week EMA (red line), "bad" things happen! We are there! So extra caution if in market is highly important until 20 week EMA crosses back above 50 week EMA. The 10/20 week crossover is really a good overall indicator.

S Fund (DWCPF index) -10 years, WEEKLY 10,20,50 EMAs

Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

C Fund (SPX index -S&P 500) - 10 years, WEEKLY 10,20,50 EMAs

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
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Hi..hummm....after giving my view about weekly chart and all, just wanna be clear...that doesn't mean I am going to avoid entering market short term.

I still like the daily charts as the primary tool, but the weekly keeps the bigger overall picture fresh.

So the C and I funds are looking vey promising..considering short term entry for Monday. I Was hoping prices would come down a little more but looks like it wants to go into upper BB channel and go!! Will see how Monday or Tuesday goes. Next week...all about earnings and Fed.

Have a great weekend!!! :fest30:

Best Wishes to you and everyone on your Investments!!!!!!! :smile:

Wooo..hooo...only a few hours left and I'm outta here!!! :drive:

Ooopppssey! Almost forgot the daily charts!

C Fund Daily-6 months
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

S Fund Daily -6 months
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

I Fund Daily -6 months
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

F Fund Daily - 6 months
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
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Checked out charts... Finally!

I'm not touching S fund with a 10' pole! Still trending down on Weekly chart with MACD below signal line. The 10 week and 20 week EMAs below 50 week EMA (view as Downtrend). Slow Stochastic about 60 and rising slope. Price below midpoint of Bollingers. More importantly, price is within a 10-week EMA downward channel. Not where I want to be.... But could it be a buy point to get in cheap??? Hummm.... I think I still want to see a better direction... And... I fund is similar.

C fund (spx) Weekly chart looks better. Still trending down on Weekly chart with MACD below signal line but slope is sharply rising. Slow Stochastic already at 80,...rather high. The 10 week and 20 week EMAs are below 50 week EMA (view as Downtrend). Good thing is 20 week EMA line is only slightly below 50 and price is now above 50 week EMA. Price is nearly at mid point of BBs as well. Hummm.... Possible buy but want a little discount...maybe a drop in price this week? Hoping for the right moment... Market not too high but not too low! I Feel like Goldilocks!!! :laugh:

On the DAILY charts, C and I fund look most promising. Will see if we get a break on the price Monday or Tuesday for short-term buy in.

Best wishes to everyone on your investments!!!!!!! :smile:
 
Pulling back from your weekly charts to a long term monthly chart:
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Seems like if this decline is the real deal it won't be safe to buy (other than for short-term trades) until the RSI reaches 30...and looking at the MACD, yikes, notice how the peak this year was higher than the peaks in 1999 and 2007, leaving an awful lot of room to fall. I'm not in the doomsday camp, but that's a little ominous.
 
Tsunami said:
Pulling back from your weekly charts to a long term monthly chart:
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Seems like if this decline is the real deal it won't be safe to buy (other than for short-term trades) until the RSI reaches 30...and looking at the MACD, yikes, notice how the peak this year was higher than the peaks in 1999 and 2007, leaving an awful lot of room to fall. I'm not in the doomsday camp, but that's a little ominous.
Click to expand...
yep...its so clear we are in downtrend. Really Like your monthly view using Stockcharts...Thank You!! We are at top of coaster just starting the ride down. Will likely last a couple years. So using downtrend strategy...much shorter buyins..trying to catch short term (few days) up movements. Still risky..but it always is....
 
Well.... Prices up right now (dang it!) ...so will see what happens this afternoon. Would not surprise me if market heads South this afternoon!!

I need discount prices to get in.... C fund looks so yummy. :yumyum:.. That's only because price is in what looks like a possible short term run up currently in the 10-day EMA channel!!!

Looks like price may now hit resistance on the weekly chart hitting into 20 and 50 week EMA as it attempts to move up. That would bring a price drop. Patience....patience....just need a little drop....will see about it tomorrow...

Best wishes to everyone on your investments!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
.....Or it could continue to melt up the wall of worry and one could look back on today as the cheap day to get into the C Fund. I gave up trying to figure timing the market, but based on the bearish forum sentiment and autotracker positions I am slightly bullish (hence still hanging in the L2020 fund). Not much appetite for more risk than that.

I mentioned on JTH's account, his 3 earlier mentioned concerns were transports, small and mid-caps and they all led the way from morning lows. Those are leading indicators.

Then again, after 12pm IFT deadline, the market can tank and I will look the fool.

DreamboatAnnie said:
Well.... Prices up right now (dang it!) ...so will see what happens this afternoon. Would not surprise me if market heads South this afternoon!!

I need discount prices to get in.... C fund looks so yummy. :yumyum:.. That's only because price is in what looks like a possible short term run up currently in the 10-day EMA channel!!!

Looks like price may now hit resistance on the weekly chart hitting into 20 and 50 week EMA as it attempts to move up. That would bring a price drop. Patience....patience....just need a little drop....will see about it tomorrow...

Best wishes to everyone on your investments!!!!!!!! :smile:
Click to expand...
 
OBXTrader said:
.....Or it could continue to melt up the wall of worry and one could look back on today as the cheap day to get into the C Fund. I gave up trying to figure timing the market, but based on the bearish forum sentiment and autotracker positions I am slightly bullish (hence still hanging in the L2020 fund). Not much appetite for more risk than that.

I mentioned on JTH's account, his 3 earlier mentioned concerns were transports, small and mid-caps and they all led the way from morning lows. Those are leading indicators.

Then again, after 12pm IFT deadline, the market can tank and I will look the fool.
Click to expand...

OBTX, I'm starting to think like you're thinking; looking for a good entry point, or just jumping in. Should have bought and held at the first bottom, FWIW.
 
OBXTrader said:
.....Or it could continue to melt up the wall of worry and one could look back on today as the cheap day to get into the C Fund. I gave up trying to figure timing the market, but based on the bearish forum sentiment and autotracker positions I am slightly bullish (hence still hanging in the L2020 fund). Not much appetite for more risk than that.

I mentioned on JTH's account, his 3 earlier mentioned concerns were transports, small and mid-caps and they all led the way from morning lows. Those are leading indicators.

Then again, after 12pm IFT deadline, the market can tank and I will look the fool.
Click to expand...


Ditto. I see strength. If it tanks, you can add me to the ship of fools.
 
Oh you silly people rooting against the market... and beating back all bear attacks today to close positive is not tanking. Tanking? Shoot, those moves were pocket change up and down compared to past couple months.

I will take small bow now for I know not what tomorrow holds. Wow, great seeing the VIX get slammed down. Don't say I didn't give you a heads up to buy today. If the market goes up big tomorrow, I am genius. If it goes down, I am sending in my resume to CNBC to be one of their experts.

Whipsaw said:
Does the current market action qualify as 'tanking'? :nuts:
Click to expand...
 
CNBC could use you for sure...what I saw today though was a textbook five-wave (with each wave consisting of an a-b-c pattern) ending diagonal wave 5 that started on Friday and is now pretty much done. It could gap down tomorrow, but better for it to gap up and then head straight down since the final peak at the close today didn't quite get to a new high above the mid-day wave 3 peak. So one more quick high Tuesday would complete wave 5 of the ending diagonal, then the rug comes out. Either way I think tomorrow will be solidly down.

Longer term I now see a real nice head and shoulders pattern that may have completed the peak of the right shoulder (2040 would be even better though), and once the neckline breaks around 1880 the target would be around 1600.

So it's decision time pretty soon for the market once the drop that starts tomorrow decides if it's just a small correction, or if its the beginning of wave C down....I'm thinking the former since more time needs to be killed, more bullishness needs to build, and we're now moving into the strong seasonal period...so it will only be 3 or 4% or so decline into next week then its up into December, but I could be wrong and I'm happily waiting for the outcome in the F fund.
 
ok pals... which way did it go? which way did it go?? lol... its going up! uggh... and I missed it! :blink: Still trying to be patient... the only thing helping now is that I am not seeing a rush to jump in... I am hoping the big dogs have sniffed out what's going on...

If the Fed increases rates, which I definitely do not believe, I think the market would drop like a rock.

Still sitting on the lily pad.
 
I am in the L2020, so kind of stuck in the middle right now. Not overly aggressive allocation to begin with, so I can ride the ups and downs. I am trying to be better long term investor (I know friends don't let friends buy and hold). Also, I hate being out of IFT's and watching you all get some end of month bounce like what happened for those that entered September 30th.

Tsunami - Good call so far and great research. Hope it works out for you. I am along for the ride, maybe I will catch a wave up with you.

DreamboatAnnie said:
ok pals... which way did it go? which way did it go?? lol... its going up! uggh... and I missed it! :blink: Still trying to be patient... the only thing helping now is that I am not seeing a rush to jump in... I am hoping the big dogs have sniffed out what's going on...

If the Fed increases rates, which I definitely do not believe, I think the market would drop like a rock.

Still sitting on the lily pad.
Click to expand...
 
Humm.... so market does its typical thing ... rises in the morning until just after noon and then proceeds to drop (today was from about 12:30pm to 1:30 Eastern), and now rising slowly. So did some piece of "news" hit to cause this OR is this just Automated "herd" day trading???? Buy Buy Buy... raise prices and then sell off....

INTRADAY - 2 DAY 15-MINUTE CHART ON SPX:

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
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