DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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I'm dying here!!! Whaaa happene???? I pull out of equities, move to F and it drops like a bomb!!! uggghhh.... two days in a row. Wow! Well... I am waving good bye to my Feb gains. :worried: Well...maybe its not quite that bad but still.... just the thought of it. I guess I will be looking at those charts a little more tonight.
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
I'm dying here!!! Whaaa happene???? I pull out of equities, move to F and it drops like a bomb!!! uggghhh.... two days in a row. Wow! Well... I am waving good bye to my Feb gains. :worried: Well...maybe its not quite that bad but still.... just the thought of it. I guess I will be looking at those charts a little more tonight.
Click to expand...

I think it just looks worse than it really is. #:-/
 
I went back and looked at my indicators last Thursday when I moved lots out of equities and went mainly into F and G. Sure enough, I did not pay attention to the F chart weekly Slow Stochastic. If I had I would have moved what I took out of equities into G fund. Definitely a mistake to go into F fund. So I need to bail out of it.

On the F fund -AGG daily chart LAST Thursday, I honed in on the MACD and saw it touching signal line with sharp angle up so I thought it was going to shoot up and through very strongly. I had looked back a year and had not seen F fund not shoot straight up when angled that steeply and having come off that low level. Oh well!! So looks like it was a fake out, but had I paid attention to the weekly chart I would be sitting pretty. Dang.... I'm shaking it off!

The charts as of COB yesterday still do not look promising for AGG or any equities. So I am moving all to G. Hope to get back in later once a bottom is found.

Take care and best wishes to everyone! DBAnnie
 
Uptrend said:
Hi DBAnnie: I agree that the movement of bonds is at times mysterious. I put up the AGG on the weekly chart below to aid this conversation.

View attachment 32740

The vertical blue line shows that the last time the AGG was really oversold was back in July, 2014 and has been rising ever since. Notice that the RSI below the chart in the red box has not really gone much below 50, so this is strength. What is causing it? Bonds are related to stocks, commodities and the US dollar, although not directly. To the right of the vertical blue line in the panels above the AGG chart we see SPX rising with AGG, the UUP (bullish USD) rising with AGG and Copper (surrogate for the metals or commodities) falling or inverse. From this chart we see an inverse relationship of bonds with commodities, an inverse relationship of commodities with the USD and a positive relationship of SPX with AGG. So right now, more than anything else, the run-away USD is pushing commodities to real low levels, which in turn is pushing up bond prices. As well, the positive correlation of SPX with bonds hints at inflation. There is way more to this intermarket analysis and I defer to John Murphy of Stockcharts for a technical discussion found here: Intermarket Analysis [ChartSchool]
Click to expand...

DreamboatAnnie said:
hello...go to his thread-post 3117. Not sure how to link to it.
Click to expand...
Ok Shitepoke..think I figured it out...kinda. Actually meant to send you to his thread, but here is Uptrend's post.
 
I looked at weekly charts last night and equities are still trending down on the short term basis. Definitely not moving in. I am tired of catching the falling knife. Will look at price action tonight and make the decision for Thursday.

The F fund looked a bit interesting only because it looks like it is going positive on the weekly Slo STo but it is very flattish, so I will need to wait as I only have one IFT left to get back in this month. I would prefer to buy into equities.

On the dailies:
C fund (SPX) BB is wide but bowing out with price on the down side, so it could mean more downside but maybe not as explosive as it has been.
S fund (DWCPF) consolidating but BBs are still not super narrow, so looks like price should continue to consolidate and fluctuate up and down until the bands constrict.

As for a buy in, well its risky but depends on how long you want to be in. I'm waiting for a big, more drawn out wave-- but it would be nice to catch it at the start. So I am still looking for a bottom.

ANOTHER CONSIDERATION!
Thinking about Federal Reserve meeting next week. If Yellin says something reassuring about having patience and not raising interest rates just yet, I should think the stocks will rally. If not, they could drop.

Between now and then, it would be great if the price action went upward in equities just enough to trigger my buyin, but thats a big question. The reason is that I would like to buy into S fund before next week---because I think the Fed Reserve may give some reassurance. Humm... then again you never know but it would be my hope.

It would be best for me to just stick to the strategy and forget about the Federal Reserve but its nearly impossible to do that when we know the impact they can and do have. Still I think it will be positive news so want to be in equities as soon as possible.

Will look at charts again tonight.

Best wishes to everyone on their investments!!! :smile:
 
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Well.. Still going to stay on the sidelines. Very nice price action today! But ... The weekly chart momentum indicator, Slow Stochastic, still pointing down and below the signal line for all equities. The bonds F fund (AGG) has crossed upward to positive so it's looking good for an entry but ...with one IFT left, and my really wanting to enter the S fund, I will not enter just yet. Maybe Friday's action will turn it upward on chart for possible entry Monday. This is further supported by the daily charts. See Charts at post #774.

On the daily charts, MACD is still below its signal line for the S fund (DWCPF) and the C fund (SPX). But, the daily Slow Stochastic has crossed its signal line going upward. That's a good sign.. However, the Bollinger Band (BB) for S Fund is tightly contracting now. Hummmm..so which way will it go? I'll wait for confirmation. The Bollinger band on C fund is still bowed out and while price has risen nicely, the opening price today was still touching the lower band and today's closing price did not yet reach the mid-point of the Bollinger band. So again, it's just not far enough out of the woods for me to jump back in. Will wait for confirmation that it has truly turned direction.

This all looks good for my entry maybe on Monday. In any case, it looks like positive news has given the bears a rest and lots of dip buyers driving price up today. Huh... So it's not the end of the world!!!! Woooo hooo!

More Dailies--The I fund is not up to midpoint on BBs, Slow Sto starting to move up but MACD is still in negative territory. Not too interested in it. Been reading a lot about exchange rates and the EFA based on EAFE is not hedged for currency exchange so that can take a chunk out of your gain when you exit, or so I understand.....so that would be especially true now that the dollar is so strong and everyone keeps saying it will continue to go up.

As for the F Fund, the daily chart also shows it crossing up past its signal line so it looks like that would be a good buy...oh yeah, but just one IFT and I'm waiting to buy S fund. I'll pass for now...

With those awful drops Friday and Tuesday, I was thinking about the massive drops that happened in Fall 2008 and Spring 2009. I revisited charts for those timeframes just to remind myself how quickly they occurred. Those drops came after a fairly long downtrend with lots of volatility. I think my current strategy would have kept me safe so oooooo....I will trust in it for now. We'll see!!

Best wishes on your investments !!!!! :smile:
 
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Wow... The market did great today. Understand economic news was not as good as anticipated. Gotta run that down as "After the Bell" on Fox Business did not expound on that. Too busy at work to review anything else. Congratulations to everyone in equities!!!!

Oh.. I'm still on the sidelines. The weekly charts still showing Slow Stochastic turned downward. On the daily charts MACD still has not crossed to positive although it is turned upward and the Slow Stochastic on daily charts are also turned upward. Would love to enter, but the Bollinger Band are tightly constricted for the S fund and C fund looks to be right behind it. We are now at about the same price level as when I exited... Darn should have bought the dip, but I thought it too risky.

I looked at the I fund intraday 5-minute, and I've never seen anything like that... It went up and did almost a straight line for hours. Not sure what that means???

In any case, At this point, will wait for Tuesday's market outcome, and likely for the Fed Meeting news to be announced Wednesday. Will look at financials again tomorrow COB.

Best wishes to everyone on their investments!!!! :smile:
 
Yes I do love the S fund. But indicators not yet right per my strategy. I really really want to jump into the S fund today 100% as it looks like markets are a little down right now. Probably Fed meeting jitters.

I don't think the Fed will change directions. Lots of people thinking that but gosh if they delete the word "patient" from their policy, will the market go crazy and dump stock? I mean... even if they don't say they are going to increase rates anytime soon... what will the market do? Will it react to the real message or will just any change to the wording cause chaos? Who knows. As I write, there are 22 minutes to make a decision for today.

I am trying to avoid spur of the moment decisions and I told myself I would stick to my strategy until it really disappoints me. I've been bad about not following it (last year--my fault not following strategy), but this time I am resolving to stick by it. I can't control what a person says at a meeting each month. So I will keep with my read of the chart indicators. But anyone in for a short term play, based on the entry timing is making a killing!! Hats off to you all!!

Best Wishes to everyone on your investments!!!! :smile:



P.S. Exnavyew...you are right! The S fund is the best fund IMHO. Years ago I put all funds into S and C and just let it run for a couple decades. That is a very good strategy, but in hindsight, I could have saved myself money by just doing one or two reallocations a year and just keeping an eye on the market to get out during major downturns. Most of those major losses had a long period (months) of down trend before the hammer hit, but on the day the hammer hit it was massive---and without much notice on the indicators. So short term traders would have got hit and the same with buy and holders. So I am thinking somewhere in between is probably best. Right now, I am fairly short term....10-14 days in at at time. Not super short like 3 or 4 days. I can't figure that out. But I am really wanting to go more long ... like many months at a time without bailing. Gotta study that a bit to see.... happy investing!
 
Wouda couda shouda!! My indicators showing entry good for today, but WOW!! Market is skyrocketing to Jupiter! Uhh... earth to market! Give me a break to jump In! Obviously my indicators are too late. Should have gone with knowledge last week. Uggghhh.
But Congrats to all on the rocket!!! :smile:
 
I think you'll get the pullback you want early next week...perhaps a 2% drop over 1 to 3 days...then comes another rally of 3 to 5%...but after that, just my opinion, the market is at high risk for peaking somewhere between 2120 and 2170 over the next few weeks...my current thought is 4/2 for a potential end to the 6 year bull market....the key will be if 2180 is broken, in which case the rally should extend for months more.... All of this is Elliott wave stuff and subject to daily change LOL.
 
Hello Tsunami ,

I tend to agree with you on all you said and especially on short term market. I will wait for a slight pull back from upper Bollinger band, and rely on daily price action and more economic factors. More corporate earnings reports should be coming out soon.

Friends have told me they think my criteria for entry was too conservative. I must agree there too. I know I placed too much reliance on the weekly charts for entry. Now I think I must limit that to just viewing it in terms of the longer term overall market trend to only look at whether the trend is in an overall uptrend or downtrend; and then using that knowledge only to tell me the overall risk. In 2008 (and 2009), the market was in a definite downtrend for many many months before the huge drops occurred. I think looking at it in those terms may give me more confidence to take risk in the current overall bull market.

I now will place more reliance on gauging the daily price action including an 18 day moving average, and increase my weighting on economic information and known information, especially about the Fed's policy. It was known that the Fed not only was looking at economic condition, but also whether inflation was below 2%. So I knew they would not increase interest rates. But my true concern was with policy wording and I doubted the Fed would give adequate assurance to keep the market stable....one way or the other.

In either case, last week was a crap shoot. Would the wording changes be enough??? I'm glad it was, especially for those that got in. It would have been a bloodbath if they had not said enough. I think it really stinks that so much hinges on Fed policy. But I do believe they will now determine if the Fed funds rate will increase each time they meet without any timeline, and the markets, being on edge before each decision to such a high degree is not good. It's so risky for short term investing, I am starting to think a longer term approach is necessary.

Someone mentioned the volatility picks up about two weeks before the Fed meets.... Does seem to be the case right up until the word is issued! The daily price swings that occurred during the last two weeks was just insane!

Yet there are those who believe the economy is good. That is what should drive markets, but with the Fed being so active, they will affect it every time they meet or whenever anyone from the Fed talks off the cuff. Some have indicated the Fed has overreached its authority, indicating that the rate increases could be seen as taxing the people. I don't know if they have overreached their authority, but I don't believe they should have the right to increase what we pay for borrowing. Shouldn't that be market driven??? In any case, their influence is here to stay and has been here for decades. So I don't see anyone winning that argument.
Best wishes to everyone in their investments!!!!!! :smile:

P.S. I also read a very good article this weekend that JPCavin posted on oil prices, their effect, and the dollars strength. Thanks JPC! Awesome article!
 
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DreamboatAnnie said:
Friends have told me they think my criteria for entry was too conservative. I must agree there too. I know I placed too much reliance on the weekly charts for entry. Now I think I must limit that to just viewing it in terms of the longer term overall market trend to only look at whether the trend is in an overall uptrend or downtrend; and then using that knowledge only to tell me the overall risk. In 2008 (and 2009), the market was in a definite downtrend for many many months before the huge drops occurred. I think looking at it in those terms may give me more confidence to take risk in the current overall bull market.
Click to expand...

I never used to look at the weekly. But just last week I read the same thing - use the weekly charts to get a sense of the market and use the daily for your entry. Now I just look at the weekly and second guess myself. :sick:
 
I'll need to look at Wave Elliott theory that Tsunami suggested.... So much to look at but so little time. Yet I've always been interested in this topic. I'll need to make some time to review. JTH once gave an awesome post on Fibronacci retracement and how to compute. I'll need to study that more.

My iPad is very old and on its last leg..so messed up I can barely post. The updated ISO is so advanced this old iPad can't handle it. I prepare write ups in Notes and cut and paste into thread. Most of the time, the Paste comes up and disappears so quickly I must take a stab at it before it appears... Uggghhh!! I've got to get something that works with computing power... Maybe a hybrid 2 in 1. Gotta have something small with speed and power!

Please....If anyone has suggestions, let me know if you have a 2-1 that has plenty of computing and hard drive capability.

Thanks!!
 
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